Roto strategy: 5 winning tips
While they don't hand out trophies in April, league domination starts with the draft.
In this column, I'll review five important predraft rules to follow in ranking your players and ultimately building your squad for rotisserie leagues.
I'll bridge to the in-season roster tinkering as draft season kicks into high gear, and we get ready for Opening Day 2008.
1. Always Work For Balance
We often hear about the need to balance life and work, and I believe a certain Sci-Fi film series was predicated on the notion of finding balance. Although the concepts of light and dark and good and evil pervade our senses and propel our fandom into dangerous territory on occasions (I'm talking about you, Red Sox and Yankees fans), in the fantasy realm we promote the construction of a balanced team.
Unlike the fantasy football realm, where all points eventually trickle down to the final point column regardless of source (How many of you won a matchup because of Rob Bironas' eight field goals or a halfback touchdown pass?), rotisserie baseball scoring requires that you receive adequate production across 10 categories (or more, if your league eschews the traditional setups). It doesn't matter that your team packs a wallop and obliterates the competition by hitting 100 more home runs than the next-best team. You're ranked first in the category and receive the maximum number of points for your dominance whether you win the category by one or 100. That isn't to say you want to keep things close. After all, the game is about domination.
However, overloading your team with big boppers is likely to have a profound effect on your performance in other categories. Generally speaking, you're likely to give up performance in the batting average and stolen-base categories. In 2007, 40 outfielders clubbed 20 or more home runs. Only 15 of them batted .290 or better. Additionally, only eight of those 40 players stole 20 or more bases (Alfonso Soriano finished with 19, despite missing 27 games).
Similarly, owners need to be mindful about the true value of a pitcher. Each year, a large number of pitchers will amass solid win totals while posting pedestrian or sometimes pathetic ERA and WHIP totals. In the real world, it's all about wins and losses. In the fantasy realm, it's also about how you get there. As such, loading a roster with Yankees and Red Sox hurlers (Sorry, it's the most apt example here) will yield a heavy win total annually.
Unfortunately, pitching in the American League has proven hazardous to the ERA and WHIP columns for many members of their respective rotations through the years. In 2007, only Josh Beckett (3.27) and Chien-Ming Wang (3.70) finished the year with an ERA below 4.00.
2. Count The Tools
This plays directly from point No. 1. As you begin to set forth your draft rankings, think about the impact each player will have in the categories your league has selected. The ability for a batter to offer sizable contributions to all five of the standard categories is rare, indeed. As such, expect to pay a premium at auction or leap to action when your turn to draft approaches.
• In 2007, 37 qualifying batters (502 plate appearances) batted .300 or better.
• Twenty-three of those players hit 20 or more home runs
• Nine of those 37 players recorded 20 or more stolen bases
• Only five of those players accomplished all three feats (B.J. Upton, Curtis Granderson, Alex Rodriguez, David Wright and Hanley Ramirez).
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| David Wright is one of the few true fantasy superstars who hit every category on the board. (Chris McGrath / Getty Images) |
Those players will fly off draft boards this season (Rodriguez and Ramirez may be 1-2) as owners expect repeat performances.
3. Speed Kills
Of all the standard categories, the most challenging in which to build depth remains the stolen base. As mentioned above, there are the occasional power brokers who also produce tremendous stolen-base totals (A-Rod and Wright lead the charge), but on the whole, running totals have dwindled. We remember the days of Rickey Henderson and Vince Coleman, when anything short of a 100-steal campaign was a disappointment.
In 2007, the league leader was Jose Reyes, who finished the year with 78. There was a time when we began writing about his stolen-base pace and became enamored with the notion of Reyes reaching triple digits. Alas, it was not to be.
A closer look inside the final numbers reveals that only 42 players amassed 20 or more stolen bases during the 2007 season. Taken further, only 57 players stole 15 or more bases. The shift of strategy to play for big innings, and the need to put up bigger offensive totals to keep pace with the offensive juggernauts that pervade the league have made the stolen base a lost art.
4. Don't Overrate Position Scarcity
In the past, fantasy owners spent considerable time considering the lack of position depth. The perception that positional scarcity exists still pervades the collective thinking as we approach 2008. There had long been a tremendous premium put on players in the middle infield and behind the plate, because the talent level (in the fantasy realm, anyway) dropped off precipitously. While there's no question superstar options are limited in several positions, there are still ample players at each position to fill starting rosters and receive solid fantasy contributions.
For example, the catching position definitely has an upper-tier of two magnificent players in Russell Martin and Victor Martinez with Martin the lone five-tool threat. However, fantasy owners can still expect tremendous production from the likes of the seemingly ageless Jorge Posada, Bengie Molina, Brian McCann and Jason Varitek. Lest we forget, former A.L. batting champion Joe Mauer saw his 2007 season derailed by injuries.
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Overall: Catcher: First base: Second base: Shortstop: Third base: Outfield: Starting pitcher: Middle reliever: Closers: | ||
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I would be remiss if I failed to acknowledge that only nine catchers logged enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. Many teams utilize platoons and have catchers who work only with specific pitchers. With that said, 21 different catchers hit 10 or more home runs and 11 finished the year with 60 or more RBI.
The expanded field of backstop contributors pales in comparison to the strides made in the middle infield:
2B: Seven players hit 20 or more home runs and eight players accrued 20 or more steals
SS: Eight players with 20 or more home runs and nine with 20 or more steals
5. Don't Chase Wins
Many owners begin and end their pitcher analysis by assessing the hurler's ability to win games. Often, the starting pitcher can only sit and watch helplessly as the game fritters away. Just look at Matt Cain, the hard-throwing youngster in San Francisco. Cain compiled an abysmal record of 7-16 in 2007 despite pitching to an exceptional 3.65 ERA.
To put his effort in context, only 40 qualifying starting pitchers (162 or more innings pitched) finished the 2007 season with an ERA under 4.00. Only 17 of those pitchers logged an ERA at 3.50 or lower.
To pull back a moment, consider the fact that 75 pitchers earned double-digit wins in 2007. An additional 15 hurlers won nine games. With rare exception, pitchers who took to the hill every fifth day managed to post solid victory totals, regardless of how poorly they pitched overall. In 2007, there were 98 pitchers who started 25 or more games. Seventy-nine of them (81 percent) won nine or more games.
I hope you found this thumbnail look inside the world of rotisserie baseball strategy helpful.
I'll be back with additional data points and research for you to ponder as we delve into spring training 2008.
Next: Head-to-Head strategy
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