Spinning my wheels: Richmond preview

by Mike Harmon

Mike is a contributor for the FOXSports.com fantasy group. Read his blog for more analysis. Have a question or comment? Send them, and the best ones may appear in his show or column.


Updated: May 1, 2008, 7:59 PM EST 4 comments

add this RSS blog print
We're now one quarter of the way through the 2008 Sprint Cup schedule.

Fantasy Auto Racing

Twenty-eight different drivers have made a charge into the top 10 with Dale Earnhardt, Jr. of the Hendrick squad leading the way. While we expected Junior to thrive in his new environment, there were questions about the man he replaced at Hendrick entering the year, as everyone wondered how well Kyle Busch would fare in his Joe Gibbs Toyota. Well, I'd say we've received our answer after nine events.

Busch capped a tremendous day of racing with his second win of the year last week at Talladega. I mean, there were a ridiculous number of lead changes, a plethora of caution flag, accidents, a boatload of near-misses and surprise endings.

If you liked that race, you haven't seen anything yet. We're going short-track racing in Richmond.

Track info

It's a big adjustment for teams this week, going from the superspeedway at Talladega to a short .75 mile oval in Richmond. The oval has a 14-degree bank and will provide strenuous tests for the braking and cooling systems. There will be a lot of bumping and jockeying for position, which could make for some shortened days for drivers and flared tempers. This is must-see television on Saturday night (or TiVo it, FOX will still get the ratings love).

History

Virtually all the Nextel Cup circuit's top drivers have had their highlight moments at Richmond, with Tony Stewart and Junior each claiming three wins in the past decade to lead the pack. Jimmie Johnson won both of the 2007 events. Thirteen drivers have found their way to victory lane in the past decade.

Over the past decade, Stewart also leads the pack with 12 top-10 finishes. However, the driver to watch is Kyle Busch. He owns five career top-five finishes at Richmond in his six career starts.

It'll got hot under the lights. Let's scan the field.

The contenders

Kyle Busch

If Junior carries the moniker of "King" at Talladega, then Richmond belongs to Kyle Busch (OK, maybe Kevin Harvick can battle him for the moniker). Busch recorded his fifth top five of 2008 with his phenomenal charge from the back of the pack to win at Talladega. He's a veritable lock for a monster finish this weekend. Busch owns five top-five finishes in his six career Richmond starts. He's averaged a ridiculous 7.78-position running slot in his six rides, spending 86 percent of races inside the top 15. Busch charges to the lead and doesn't look back. Ride the hot hand if you have starts left for Kyle Busch.

Kevin Harvick

As I mentioned above, Harvick can also lay claim to the crown, having averaged a ridiculous 5.5-position finish in his past six starts at Richmond. In fact, Harvick has produced seven straight top-12 finishes with one win and three top fives. He's raced among the leaders during this six-race stretch, averaging a 5.6-position running slot. Harvick also owns an average 13.5-position finish in short track races. Harvick has taken a small step back in the past two events with 19th and 24th-place finishes. I expect him to charge back in a big way this weekend.

Denny Hamlin

Hamlin started the season slowly, but he's found his stride with five straight top-six finishes, including a win at Martinsville. His hot streak is likely to continue this weekend at Richmond, where he's been a regular near the top of the pack. Hamlin has raced inside the top 15 in 98 percent of his laps run at the track. He's finished 15th or better in each of his four career Richmond starts with three top-six finishes while averaging a 6.1-position average running slot. Lock him into your lineup if you have a start remaining.

Clint Bowyer

Bowyer started the season slowly, but he's currently on a six-race tear. He brings a six-race streak of top-10 rides into Richmond, where he's been positively stellar. Bowyer has finished 12th or better in each of his four career Richmond starts, including two top 10s. The No. 7 Richard Childress Racing Chevy team is operating well, and that makes Bowyer a superb roster addition this week.

Tony Stewart

Stewart is a bit salty following his rough finish at Talladega. He was riding high at the top of the pack, but finished 38th because of an accident. Stewart looks to regain his standing at Richmond, where he's routinely pushed his way to the top of the heap. He's averaged a strong 9.6-position running slot in his past six starts at the venue, yielding a 7.2-position average finish.

Dale Earnhardt, Jr.

Earnhardt has certainly enjoyed the first quarter of the season in his Hendrick ride, as he leads the circuit with seven top 10s. He defended his turf with a strong 10th-place effort at Talladega and will look to continue his run at Richmond. Junior is a solid start this weekend. He owns nine top 10s in 17 career starts. Detractors may look to the fact that Earnhardt has only produced one top-10 in his past six starts (it was a win), but he's averaged a 12.9-position running slot during these races. He's a solid start ths weekend.

Ryan Newman

Ryan Newman has finished in the top 10 at Richmond frequently and should be in your lineup this weekend. (Todd Warshaw / Getty Images)
Newman started the season with a bang, capturing a thrilling win at Daytona and following it with a 10th-place run at Fontana. He struggled in four consecutive events before finding his mark at Texas Motor Speedway. Newman claimed fourth in that start and raced to eighth place this past week in Talladega. He's a sure-fire fantasy play this weekend, having raced to seven top 10s in 11 career Richmond starts. Of course, Newman also offers his customary qualifying dominance to start your weekend right. Newman has averaged an 8.8-position qualifying slot during his career. Start him with confidence.

Matt Kenseth

The former series champion finds himself in the 19th position in the point standings as we hit Richmond. Kenseth has finished 30th or worse in three of his past four starts. He looks to stop the bleeding with a trip to the short track at Richmond. Kenseth has produced nine top 10s in his 16 career starts, including three of his past five starts (four top 15s). He's averaged a 15.8-position running slot in his past six events, so he's another solid start.

Jeff Burton

Burton continued his magnificent start to the 2008 season with a strong run-up of 26 slots from qualifying to claim 12th place at Talladega. Most impressively, Burton has averaged a 17-position improvement over qualifying to produce his top-ranked standing. I would expect him to continue this string of consistent efforts this weekend at Richmond. Burton has raced to 12 top 10s in his 27 career starts with six top-18 finishes in six of his past eight rides. If you want a steady ride, there are none better than the No. 31 right now.

Jeff Gordon

The No. 24 team is struggling as we head into Richmond. Gordon has produced just three top-10 finishes in 2008 and has seen three rides end early because of accidents and a suspension issue. Perhaps the short track at Richmond will help him turn things around. Gordon is a two-time winner at the track with 18 top 10s in 30 career starts. He ran fourth in both 2007 events to end a disastrous four-race stretch at Richmond during which he finished 30th or worse in each start. I expect his team to come out with a big effort following the big to-do with Junior, but I'll watch it from the cheap seats.

Greg Biffle

Following a torrid start to the year, Biffle and the No. 16 Roush Fenway team have slowed. Biffle has finished 18th or worse in three of his past four starts. Richmond offers a strong chance for a rebound performance from Biffle. He's raced to five top 10s in his past seven Richmond starts, including two top fives. Although Biffle struggled here last year and finds himself in a bit of a funk in 2008, I'm onboard. He's averaged a strong 13.9-position running slot here during his past six starts.

Quick hits

Jimmie Johnson

As expected, the No. 48 team has charged back toward the top of the heap this season. Johnson has produced six top-15 finishes this year, including a win and four top fives. Johnson won both Richmond events in 2007 to end a stretch of five races in which he'd failed to crack the top 10. In fact, he'd raced 23rd or worse in four of those five events. I just don't know where to go on this one. I'm flipping a coin like my man in No Country for Old Men. "Call it, friendo." I'll grudgingly sit him down this weekend. I hope to have made the right call and escape like the gas station attendant.

Kurt Busch

Talladega appeared on the schedule at just the right time for Kurt Busch and his team, as he'd run to 11 top 10s in 14 career starts. Alas, it only appeared that way. Busch's streak of runs outside of the top 10 reached eight with a disappointing 39th-place finish because of an accident last week. Fantasy participants have a difficult choice with Busch this weekend. He's raced to only four top-10 finishes (one win) in 14 career Richmond starts (five top 15s), although he does look to make it three straight this weekend. Given his team's recent struggles, I'm going to keep him on the sidelines.

Carl Edwards

Edwards watched his three-race streak of top 10s end with a disappointing run to 40th place at Talladega. He's a difficult proposition for fantasy participants this weekend at Richmond. Edwards owns two top-10 finishes in his seven career starts here, but he's also finished 21st or worse in four others. I wouldn't be surprised to see him push to the top of the heap. However, I'm holding him back for another ride.

Kasey Kahne

Kahne started the season well, but he's currently in a quasi-funk. He's raced outside of the top 15 in four consecutive events, including three runs to 23rd-place or worse. I'm looking for a turnaround this weekend at Richmond. Kahne has been hit-or-miss here during his career, racing to four top 10s and four runs to 24th or worse. I'm particularly intrigued by Kahne's brilliant 2005 run when he captured the checkered flag and led 242 laps after claiming the pole. He's averaged a 15.5-position running slot during the past six races here, and I expect him to push toward the top.

Casey Mears

Mears is finally living up to preseason expectations, producing two top 10s and three top 15s in his past four starts (two seventh-place finishes). The No. 5 Hendrick team is running well right now, but he could experience a slide this weekend at Richmond. Mears has yet to produce a top-10 finish in 10 career starts at the track. Yes, he's been running better here of late, as he carries an active streak of four top-18 runs into this weekend. Mears has averaged a 21.9-position running slot in his past six races. As such, I'm sitting him down.

Jamie McMurray

He's not running on all cylinders right now, but McMurray has been better in recent weeks. McMurray has finished 17th or better in four consecutive events. Alas, McMurray's history at Richmond doesn't necessarily scream top-tier charge to me. He's claimed two top-10 finishes in his 10 career Richmond starts and has finished 19th or worse in five consecutive outings. I'll leave him on the bench this weekend, but will also be interested to watch his effort.

Brian Vickers

Vickers ended a four-race funk with a stellar charge to fifth place last week at Talladega, where he's become a fixture near the top of the pack (remember that for later use). He hasn't experienced nearly that type of success at Richmond, where he's claimed only one top-10 finish in seven career starts. That eighth-place finish came in his first trip to the short track. It was also the only time that he'd led a lap. Vickers has finished 24th or worse in each of his past six starts.

Longshots

David Ragan

Don't look now, but Ragan is sitting in the 15th position in the point standings following his brilliant charge to fourth place at Talladega. He's produced five top-15 finishes and has been a true breakthrough performer on the circuit for Roush Fenway Racing. Ragan is in my fourth slot this weekend. I was impressed with his effort at Talladega, and he ran quite well at Richmond last year. He averaged a strong 17.4-position running slot last season and produced a tremendous charge to third place here last fall.

Juan Pablo Montoya

After completing seven straight top-20 finishes, Montoya finally made his first big run of the year at Talledega and finished second to the seemingly unstoppable Kyle Busch. Montoya charged up from the 26th slot to put himself 12th in the point standings. He just might be able to continue his recent run of top-half runs here at Richmond. Montoya began both of his 2007 Richmond starts well, but finished 26th and 41st (accident) in his introduction to the short track.

Bobby Labonte

It's been a difficult season for the No. 43 Petty Enterprises Dodge. Labonte has produced three top-15 finishes in his nine starts, racing 20th or worse on five occasions. He qualifies as a true longshot pick this weekend given his current struggles, but he's found success here in the past. Labonte owns 10 top-10 finishes in his 30 career Richmond starts with four top 10s and seven top-16 finishes in his past 10 outings.

My team for this week includes Kyle Busch, Harvick, Hamlin and Ragan.

Please note by clicking on "Post Comment" you acknowledge that you have read the Terms of Use and the comment you are posting is in compliance with such terms. Be polite. Inappropriate posts may be removed by the moderator.

 advertisement

FOX SPORTS AT&T Racebreak VIDEO

Fantasy Auto Racing: Denny can do it

FOXSports.com fantasy guru tells you who to start and who to sit in Richmond. Find out why Harmon is high on Virginia native Denny Hamlin.

Fantasy Auto Racing: Phoenix Rising

FOXSports.com fantasy guru Mike Harmon tells you who to race and who to keep in the garage at this weekend's NASCAR race in Phoenix.

FOX SPORTS STORE

 advertisement

FOXSports.com >> Feedback | Press | Jobs | Tickets | Join Our Opinion Panel | Subscribe
Other Fox Sites >> FOX.com | FOX News | News Corp.
© 2008 Fox Sports Interactive Media, LLC. All rights reserved. | Privacy Policy | Terms of Use