Combine wrap: Fantasy risers and fallers
I spent Sunday evening fighting over the remote control with my fiancée; she wanted to watch the Academy Awards, but I protested. "Look, I have to watch the NFL Network's combine wrap. I couldn't attend the combine itself, so how else am I supposed to do my job?" She looked at me skeptically, but relented, saying something about getting a second television for our place with her tax refund as she trekked out of the room.
(And yes, I realize every American male aged 18-75 who just read the "it's part of my job" quip also wishes they could legitimately use that as an excuse and hopes I have a spot in hell reserved for me. But this time, it was a legit claim).
As much of a draft-loon as I am though, I don't go overboard when it comes to stating the importance of the combine. Think of the combine as a headhunter job fair of sorts; GMs and scouts can examine your résumé by simply looking at film of your college days, and the combine is like being called into a recruiter's office for a pre-interview skills test. Not to mention, there's still the small matter of performing well at your school's pro day.
Nonetheless, some pundits happen to think a player can really improve his stock in those few days. Maybe, but it really doesn't happen as often as you may imagine. Far more often than not, the deviation of where a player was projected to be drafted as opposed to where he ultimately is drafted is somewhat small.
Anyway, since the combine is such a quick and cut-to-the-chase event, I'll do the same in this piece. Here's my (fantasy-position-related) list of the top five risers and fallers at the combine:
Risers
Nonetheless, I was anything but surprised to learn Brennan had a near-perfect performance (20-for-21) in the passing accuracy drill at the combine (and in fact, his one incompletion was a drop by the wideout after having been thrown right on the money). Think about it: Brennan came from one of those most pass-happy college football programs in the NCAA. He passed the ball on almost every down, and since handing the ball off isn't a big art, it stands to reason he should be able to make any throw his NFL coach wants.
Verdict: It's hard to imagine Brennan starting right away in his career, but with so much poor quarterback play in the league last year, who knows? You shouldn't waste a roster spot on him in '08 though.
McFadden was positively unstoppable in college at times, gashing SEC opponents with regularity. He improved his total yards, touchdowns, and carries in each of his three years at Arkansas (culminating in 1,830 yds, 16 touchdowns and 325 attempts as a junior). Barring something truly cataclysmic happening before the draft, McFadden will be the first running back off the board in Round 1. Jerry Jones has downplayed Dallas' interest in moving that high up in the draft to land D-Mac, but he'd make quite the complement to Marion Barber, wouldn't he?
Verdict: The Peterson comparisons are valid, and unless McFadden goes to a team with an awful offensive line, I wouldn't hesitate to use a late first rounder on him if I were drafting today. McFadden is the real deal who clearly owns great breakaway speed, but may not have a strong enough lower body to really grind out short yards near the goal-line. Nonetheless, he should have no problem becoming a fantasy star quickly.
Verdict: Mendenhall's best 40-time was clocked at a very solid 4.37, and he even outdid a few offensive linemen by doing 26 reps of the 225-pound bench press. Depending on where he lands (maybe to Carolina at No. 13 in the first round now that DeShaun Foster is no longer there?), he could be a decent third running back on your fantasy roster.
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| Ray Rice isn't very tall, but he used a nice combination of strength and speed to post big yardage in college. (Dave Sandford / Getty Images) |
Verdict: A lot about Rice's game is similar to that of Mendenhall's: short and stocky, yet powerful and even fast. Rice ran a respectable 4.40 dash and is probably second-round material at this point, but his fantasy status is hard to predict since he could literally land anywhere in the draft. Teams like Oakland, Seattle and Chicago, to name a few, have needs at the running back position and could do a lot worse with their second rounder.
Verdict: His combine performance will probably boost him up among the top five to seven wideouts in this class. It wouldn't be a massive shock if someone selected him late in the first round, so you could be looking at a potential No. 5 fantasy sleeper. Keep an eye on him.
Fallers
Verdict: Booty wasn't able to consistently connect with receivers in stride during his drills. Not to mention, reports indicate his hands are too small (yes, just about everything gets measured at the combine). Some pundits fear this may lead to more fumbles than usual as he takes big hits. Maybe so, but it's hard to judge how he'll do in the pros since he had stud left tackle Sam Baker protecting his blind side during college.
Verdict: He's a highly intelligent player who showed he can play through pain when necessary. One thing coaches will like about him when they watch his film is how he always seems to fall forward when tackled, squeezing out every inch possible. Look for him to come off the board in the late second or early third, but he probably won't be a big fantasy asset during his rookie year.
Verdict: Ironically, Manningham is in the same boat as Hart: good skill set, productive playmaker, but his 40-time was higher than scouts had hoped. He did beat corners with his speed pretty often in college though, so maybe it was a case of combine jitters.
Verdict: Bowman had a pretty poor showing at the combine, running a 4.69 40 (awfully slow for a wideout). His character is also a concern for some: Bowman transferred to Oklahoma St. after getting kicked off of North Carolina's team for marijuana possession.
Verdict: Flu or no flu, that was a pretty horrific workout. Carlson may not even get selected on Day 1 of the draft at this point. That means he's going to be buried on whatever depth chart he finds himself on. Don't look for any value here; instead, keep an eye on Purdue's Dustin Keller, who had the best overall combine performance of any tight end.
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