Sleepers and flops: Loney has star potential
Other positions are trying to catch up, but none will. This is the premier place for fantasy power, and more newcomers are trying to enter the discussion each and every year.
These are guys you should be looking out for in '08 and also a few you may wanna stay away from as well.
First Base Sleepers
James Loney, Los Angeles Dodgers
He has all the talent you'll ever need. It's just a matter of whether the team will keep him up with the big boys all season long. That finally looks to be the case after bouncing up and down the last two years. In only 96 games last season, though, he clubbed 15 home runs, 67 RBI and an impressive .331 average. The promise of superstardom may have already creeped into the heads of some of your leaguemates, so it's likely he'll be drafted higher than he should be, especially considering he hits half the time in Dodger Stadium. That being said, if he's still there for you in the eighth and ninth round, he'd be a steal.
Joey Votto, Cincinnati
Votto could be one of the best up-and-coming players in the National League this season. Dusty Baker has already said he'd have every chance to win the starting job in Cincy, which would put him right behind guys like Brandon Phillips, Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey, Jr. in a suddenly powerful Reds' lineup. Everyone loves hitting in Great American Ballpark, too. So if he captures the everyday.
Ryan Garko, Cleveland
Garko had a decent year, but definitely not a stellar one. However, the talent is obvious. With a full season at first ahead of him, and with the power of the rest of the lineup in Cleveland, look for him to put up about 30 dingers and nearly 100 RBI for the best team in the AL Central.
Ben Broussard, Texas
Broussard hasn't had a position to himself his entire career, but that'll be the case in Texas this season. The power-hitting left-hander has no competition at first and plays in a hitter's park where he can club home runs all season long. His average may never be sexy, but with the freedom to swing away this year, there's no reason why he shouldn't club out 30 longballs and drive in close to 100.
Daric Barton, Oakland
This is kind of a deep sleeper, considering he'll have to battle Dan Johnson for playing time. However, after Johnson hit .236 last season, the position's definitely up for grabs. Barton is a big-hitting lefty who batted .347 with four home runs in limited duty in '07. It's quite conceivable he wins the first base job out of spring training and gets upwards of 500 at-bats this year as the A's go back to a youth movement.
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| Carlos Pena had an unbelievable 20'07, but the chances of duplicating it are slim. (Mike Stobe / Getty Images) |
First Base Flops
Carlos Pena, Tampa
Don't get me wrong. I don't think Pena's gonna fall flat on his face this season. I just don't think he'll be coming anywhere close to the 46 home runs and 121 RBI he belted out in last year's breakout season. He may have a strong lineup in front again, but pitchers are going to be more aware of him and will pitch around him more often than before. If he goes for more than 32 homers and 90 RBI, I'll be surprised. Those obviously aren't bad numbers by any means, but he shouldn't be drafted in the first four or five rounds of your draft, either. There are too many other good first basemen to pick up before him.
Carlos Delgado, New York Mets
This was obviously seen last year already, but the dropoff should be even more prevalent this season. Delgado's best days are obviously behind him, and the Mets are going to be wondering why they didn't go out and find a suitable replacement for him in the off-season. The 24 home runs and .287 average of '07 may actually look decent come September. I don't plan on touching him, no matter how far he falls.
Dmitri Young, Washington
The Meat Hook had a terrific season under the radar of many in D.C. His .320 average earned him a trip to the All-Star Game, but he ended the year with just a paltry 13 home runs and 74 RBI. Those aren't numbers you're looking for your everyday first baseman. Not to mention, Nick Johnson will be back this year and looking for at-bats. They're sure to come from Young at some point or another.
Todd Helton, Colorado
I love Helton, I really do. He plays the game the way it's supposed to be played, and he's trying to hold on to fantasy relevancy well into his 30s. However, his .320 average is about the only thing he's good for right now. He played an entire season in Coors Field last year and only could find enough power to hit 17 home runs and drive in 91 runs in the middle of one of the best lineups in baseball. Matt Holliday is the big stick in that lineup now, and Helton's numbers are going nowhere but down. If he wasn't in Colorado, we wouldn't even be having this discussion, unfortunately.
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