Sleepers and flops: Escobar will impress
Of course, that makes my job a bit more difficult, since I obviously can't include any of those seven guys on here, as well as the 10-15 guys who obviously don't deserve mention for exactly the opposite reason. So, I'm left with only about 10 legitimate candidates for sleeper or flop consideration.
Alas, I've selected a few players you should be on the lookout for in the middle rounds of your draft, as well as those you need to be avoiding at all costs. Of course, with this batch of athletes, the latter list will admittedly be shorter than most.
Shortstop Sleepers
Yunel Escobar, Atlanta
He's the player on the list with the most upside compared to last season. Escobar officially takes over for the departed Edgar Renteria this season, and he's primed to put up some nice looking numbers in a strong Atlanta lineup. Sure, Andruw Jones is gone, but Mark Teixeira is back for a full season with the team, Mark Kotsay takes over in centerfield, Brian McCann and Chipper Jones hope to play full years again, Jeff Francouer is an RBI machine, and Matt Diaz and Kelly Johnson are underrated hitters as well. There isn't a weak link in there, meaning Escobar will get all sorts of opportunities to drive in runs, score runs and steal bases for the Braves in '08.
Stephen Drew, Arizona
Drew has all sorts of talent. He displayed a touch of it last year when his D-Backs were working their way through the playoffs, and he'll continue to do so this season. His average was ugly last year, but as a rookie that's understandable. He'll easily surpass the .238 he put up in '07, not to mention the 12 home runs and 60 RBI. He's capable of 20 and 90 with about 15-25 steals as well. Once again, the team around him will help, as Arizona has plenty of up and coming talent throughout the organization.
Orlando Cabrera, Chicago White Sox
Cabrera's one of a number of new faces on the White Sox this year looking to benefit from the friendly hitting confines of Cellular Park Field. His numbers were impressive enough last season, as he hit .301 with 86 RBI and 20 stolen bases, but it's the power numbers that should easily increase in his new ballpark. He hit just eight homers in '07, but I can see him doubling that this year, while keeping the RBI total around the same and even increasing the average a bit. With a variety of other power hitters around him, including Jim Thome, Nick Swisher, Jermaine Dye, Paul Konerko, Josh Fields and A.J. Pierzynski, his 101 runs from last season should be going up as well. He won't be going anywhere near as high as Ramirez, Reyes or Rollins in drafts, but you'll be getting plenty of bang for your buck if you wait a few rounds and select Orlando instead.
Erick Aybar, Los Angeles Angels
I've always liked Aybar's game. He's a scrappy hitter, which doesn't always lead to huge numbers (read: David Eckstein), but given a full season as the everyday shortstop in a power packed Angels lineup, he could surprise some people with his pop. He'll be able to find some gaps, drive in people at the bottom of the order and get you 15-25 steals this season. He may reach double-digits in home runs or drive in more than 70 runs, but he could easily score close to 100 of them and improve that average of his closer to the .300 range.
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| Yuniesky Betancourt often flies under the radar at his position, but he shouldn't. (Otto Greule, Jr. / Getty Images) |
Yuniesky Betancourt, Seattle
Maybe it's his difficult to pronounce name, or the fact he plays in relative obscurity up in Seattle, who hasn't done anything of significance in a few years now. But Betancourt deserves more credit than he's usually given. He played in all but seven games last season, hit a nice .289 with nine home runs and 67 BRI at the bottom of the Mariners' order. This was with guys like Richie Sexson, Jose Lopez and Kenji Johjima having disappointing seasons in front of him. While he'll never give you 20 home runs or anything, there's no reason he can't get that average up in the .305 area, score closer to 100 runs and drive in closer to 85 or 90 while hitting behind guys who are bound to bounce back after down years. It's a deep sleeper, but one you shouldn't let reach the waiver wire stage.
Shortstop Flops
J.J. Hardy, Milwaukee
Hardy was the hottest hitter on the planet not named Alex Rodriguez for the first 50 games of 2007. He was leading the NL in home runs for most of that time, driving runs like they were going out of style, and I was the fortunate one in my league who actually acted quickly enough to grab him off the waiver wire a week into the season. Yeah, believe it. That won't be the case this year, of course, but he may still be a bit overvalued, thanks to people believing he'll be able to match the start he put up for them before last year's All-Star break. Well, I'd be weary of that, especially considering he virtually fell off the map the last 80 games. He had an amazing 15 home runs and 43 RBI through 46 games, yet ended the season with just 26 and 80. That fall-off should make you think twice about grabbing him as your starter at the position in '08, despite hitting in the ridiculous lineup the Brewers have put together.
Omar Vizquel, San Francisco
This is a rather easy one to call, as Omar will turn 41 years of age a month into the season and has no Barry Bonds or Pedro Feliz hitting behind him this year, either. His .246 average was one of the worst of his career, and four home runs and 51 RBI obviously won't get anybody excited. He surprisingly still stole 14 bases, but you have to assume that'll be going down as well. Unfortunately, his days of being fantasy relevant seem to be at an end.
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