Halpin' Hand: Going Steady
Well, I'm turning over a new leaf. I'll always swing for the fences sometimes — see the NL Predictions for a glimpse of my Wily Mo Peña man-crush — but this year I'm going to go for the sure things more often.
(I know — there are no sure things. Thanks for the heads-up. Let's move on.)
The 10 players below are steadier than most. If we know what production we're going to get from anyone, it's them. Got any disagreements or suggestions of your own? You know where to leave a comment.
One more thing: Mets 3B David Wright is as reliable as they come — for the last three years, his batting average has stayed between .306 and .325, his RBI between 102 and 116, and his homers between 26 and 30. Knowing how reliable Wright is won't help you, because everyone wants him in no later than the middle of the first round. Let's agree that players taken in the first couple of rounds aren't eligible for this discussion — with one exception that I'll explain.
Hitters
Pat Burrell, OF, Phillies
Right around last year's All-Star break, the normally understanding fans in Philadelphia were ready to kill Burrell thanks to his .215 batting average and subpar totals of 11 home runs and 37 RBI. "Pat the Bat" turned it on in the second half, and finished up right about where you expected him to. Check out Burrell's numbers from 2005-07:
(BA-HR-RBI-Runs)
2005: .281-32-117-78
2006: .258-29-95-80
2007: .256-30-97-77
Pretty consistent, don't you think? I'm not saying you should draft Burrell really early, but if you're looking for a 30-homer, 100-RBI bat in the middle of your draft and can absorb a so-so batting average, he's pretty much money in the bank.
Orlando Cabrera, SS, White Sox
Cabrera's batting average has bounced around lately, but batting averages tend to do that. His batting average on balls in play (BABIP) seems to be the reason. Cabrera's usually good for 8-10 home runs and 20 or so steals, and in the last two seasons his run and RBI totals went from OK to pretty good. Every major projection system seems to have him very close to a .275-9-70-20 season with about 80 runs. His move to Chicago might bump those numbers up in both homers and steals, since he's slated to bat leadoff. Second-tier shortstops don't get much more reliable than Cabrera,
Luis Castillo, 2B, Mets
No, reliable doesn't always mean great, or even good. But when the pickings are slim, and you can use a middle infielder who will bat .290-300 with 20 steals and 90 runs even though he can't hit the ball over a 200-foot Little League fence, then Castillo's your guy.
Pedro Feliz, 3B, Phillies
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| New Philadelphia third baseman Pedro Feliz won't give much help for batting average, but moving to a hitter-friendly park could boost other numbers. (Keith Srakocic / Associated Press) |
Statheads hate Feliz, which is understandable for a guy with a .288 career on-base percentage. His OBP exceeded the .300 mark once when he reached .305 in 2004. Folks, it's hard to make that many outs. Really hard.
In fantasy, Feliz is a different story since most leagues don't use OBP. Feliz's home run totals over the past four seasons are 22, 20, 22 and 20. His BA should hover steadily around .250, and his run and RBI totals could creep up thanks to his hitter-friendly new ballpark. If you can stand the batting average, Feliz could actually be a decent late-rounder. Remember — third basemen are everywhere.
Torii Hunter, OF, Angels
Hunter's on a new team, but he brings the same game to the table. Throw out his injury-shortened 2005, and here's what you have since 2001: Home run totals between 23 and 31, run totals between 79 and 94, and five out of six years of RBI totals between 92 and 107 (he knocked in just 81 runs in 2004). Hunter's stolen base numbers are inconsistent, but he should be good for about 15. He's rock-solid at the plate and gives you the added bonus of highlight-reel catches. Even though they don't help your fantasy team, they make you feel as proud as anything else, don't they?
Kenji Johjima, C, Mariners
Johjima has been stateside for two similarly productive seasons. While he's not a sexy Japanese import like his teammate, Ichiro, he's become a dependable fantasy backstop. Draft Johjima as a low-end No. 1 catcher and count on a .290 BA with 15 home runs and 70 RBI.
Carlos Lee, OF, Astros
Lee's the exception to the "no high picks" rule, but I had to give him credit for a five-year run of eerily consistent power numbers. Since 2003, Lee's homer totals are 31-31-32-37-32, and his RBIs have been 113-99-114-116-119. Wow.
Even with a No. 1 overall pick like Alex Rodriguez, there's some uncertainty — he could hit 37 homers, or he could hit 55, and even though both would make you happy, one would make you a heckuva lot happier. Lee's like a Volvo — not flashy like a Porsche, and not quite top of the line like a Mercedes, but really strong and safe across the board for his extremely satisfied owners. It's hard to ask for more than that.
Pitchers
Aaron Harang, SP, Reds
In 2003, Harang was the key piece of a deal that brought him to Cincinnati from Oakland in exchange for Jose Guillen, who had a grand total of 170 at bats for the A's. If you're sick of hearing about what a genius Billy Beane is, and ever feel the need to point out his mistakes to a Moneyball-toting friend, Harang is Exhibit A.
From 2005-07, Harang has been as consistent as any pitcher in baseball, posting ERAs of 3.83, 3.76 and 3.73. Over the past two seasons, he's won 16 games apiece with strikeout totals of 216 and 218. If Harang is your No. 2 fantasy starter, you'll be in good hands.
Derek Lowe, SP, Dodgers
Raise your hand if you thought the Dodgers were crazy to sign Lowe to a four-year, $36 million contract after he starred for the Red Sox in the 2004 World Series. Come on, I know it wasn't just me. Show your face, coward.
Lowe is a groundball machine who has a great chance to pitch about 200 innings this year with an ERA in the high-3.00s and a WHIP between 1.25 and 1.30. You want upside? Go draft Rich Harden, and watch him fall on his face. Again.
Roy Oswalt, SP, Astros
Oswalt's fantasy status seems to be slipping now that he's not winning 20 games anymore, but he's still a top-12 starter for me. His ERA rose to 3.18 last year and his WHIP jumped to a career-worst 1.33, but that looks to be the product of a bad first half. After the All-Star break, Oswalt had a 2.57 ERA with a 1.23 WHIP — both right in line with his 2005-06 numbers — and his K/BB ratio was back in its normal 4:1 range. That's the Oswalt I expect to see in 2008.
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