Pitching leader projections: Santana to lead wins, K's
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Will Rich Harden stay healthy enough to rank among the leaders? How about Scott Kazmir? If they do stay healthy during the year, will they receive enough run support to post huge years? Which closers will keep their jobs?
I battled through these maddening thoughts, curling into a fetal position on more than one occasion as thoughts of elbow and shoulder injuries invaded my data runs. In the end, two names rose to the top of the mountain as we anxiously await opening day (when's the national holiday getting put into effect?). Let's break down the pitching categories and begin the coronation of top fantasy hurlers Johan Santana and Jake Peavy.
Wins
1. Johan Santana, NYM : Santana will pitch in a bigger stadium with more consistent run support. He'll enjoy making the swap to the National League. Billy Wagner will be there to slam the door. Santana has averaged 17.5 wins per year during the past four years.
2007 wins: 15
2008 wins: 21
2. Jake Peavy, SD : Peavy has won at least 11 games in five consecutive years, and his 19 wins in 2007 established a new career high. The Padres possess a strong bullpen, and Peavy's ability to work deep into games cannot be discounted.
2007 wins: 19
2008 wins: 20
3. Carlos Zambrano, CHC : He didn't challenge for the Cy Young as he'd predicted, but Zambrano's tenacity and heavy workload made him an 18-game winner. The Cubs have a potent offense that should put Zambano in a position to win a sizable number of games once again. He's won 16 or more games in three of the past four years.
2007 wins: 18
2008 wins: 19
3. Brandon Webb, ARI : Webb increased his win total for the third straight season as the young Diamondbacks arrived. He established a new career mark with 18 victories and pitched to his lowest ERA (3.01) since his rookie season. Barring a huge setback, Webb should match his 2007 brilliance.
2007 wins: 19
2008 wins: 19
3. Justin Verlander, DET : Verlander won 18 games in his second major league season, and now has one of the most potent offenses in the game behind him. The lone question lingering in Detroit concerns the bullpen. Can the Tigers finish the final two or three innings?
2007 wins: 18
2008 wins: 19
6. Chien-Ming Wang, NYY : Wang produced another phenomenal season for the Yankees in 2007. He posted his second straight 19-win campaign. Wang doesn't possess overpowering stuff, but he's a top-tier force when he's able to keep the ball down in the zone. The Yankees will score a ton of runs in 2008 and put Wang in position to continue his winning ways.
2007 wins: 19
2008 wins: 18
6. Daisuke Matsuzaka, BOS : It was a decidedly uneven first season in the big leagues for Matsuzaka in 2007. He was unhittable at times, and downright pedestrian at some others. With a full season under his belt, Matsuzaka will be better equipped to pace himself for the long season and the physical and mental grind. There won't be a second-half swoon in 2008.
2007 wins: 15
2008 wins: 18
6. C.C. Sabathia, CLE : Sabathia rose up to win the AL Cy Young award in 2007, recording career marks in ERA (3.21), WHIP (1.14), strikeouts (209) and wins (19). It was the seventh straight season during which Sabathia won 12 or more games. The Indians are loaded for another big year, and there's no reason to anticipate a dramatic drop-off in production from this star hurler.
2007 wins: 19
2008 wins: 18
6. Josh Beckett, BOS : Beckett enjoyed the best year of his career in 2007. He won 20 games with a high-strikeout total and a career-best 1.14 WHIP. Obviously, Beckett's back troubles this spring are certainly something to monitor. He may miss some time, but I suspect that the run support generated by the Red Sox will still rank him among the leaders in the category.
2007 wins: 20
2008 wins: 18
10. Roy Halladay, TOR : Halladay earned 16 wins for the second straight year despite a sizable rise in his ERA and WHIP numbers. The Blue Jays are a sexy pick to make some noise in the AL East, and Halladay will be the key to such success on the mound. He doesn't possess the huge strikeout punch that he once had, but he eats innings and will put this squad in position to win.
2007 wins: 16
2008 wins: 17
10. Javier Vazquez, CWS : Vazquez enjoyed his best season since his breakout 2001 campaign with the White Sox last year, winning 15 games with a solid 3.74 WHIP. Vazquez allowed three or fewer earned runs in 21 of his starts last year. Better efforts from middle relief will boost his win total in 2008.
2007 wins: 17
2008 wins: 17
10. Rich Hill, CHC : Hill has electric stuff and will only improve his second full season with the Cubs. I'm not going to toss out the "destiny" phrases that will be spouted off if the Cubs should succeed early, but I believe that Hill could be one of the year's top breakthrough performers. He kept the ball down and improved his flyball rate in the second half (down let the higher ERA and WHIP numbers in the second half deter you).
2007 wins: 11
2008 wins: 17
10. John Lackey, LAA : After some off-season scares, it appears that Lackey is ready to get back on the hill for the opener. Lackey won 19 games in 2007 to set a new personal best. He's won at least 13 games in four consecutive seasons. He also set new bests in the ERA (3.01) and WHIP (1.21) categories. The Angels spent heavily on outfield defense, adding Torii Hunter to keep Lackey in the win column.
2007 wins: 19
2008 wins: 17
14. Fausto Carmona, CLE : He owns one of the game's great names, and during the 2007 season kept hitters off-balance. It's hard to believe that Carmona was the same pitcher who posted a record of 1-10 in 2006. The Indians will undoubtedly score a ton of runs this season. It's just a question of whether Carmona can continue his magical run. I anticipate a slight downturn in production, but he'll still win his fair share of games.
2007 wins: 19
2008 wins: 16
14. James Shields, TB : Shields took a huge leap forward in 2007, dramatically reducing his WHIP by 0.33. He effectively limits walks and pitches deep into games with great regularity. Shields allowed two or fewer earned runs in seven of his final eight starts of the season. The Rays have a number of promising youngsters in the lineup, and barring a regression in Shields's performance, he should be a frequent winner in 2008.
2007 wins: 12
2008 wins: 16
Strikeouts
1. Johan Santana, NYM : Santana has averaged 245.8 strikeouts during the past four seasons while obliterating American League lineups. He joins the national league in a pitcher's park and will face opposing hurlers three times per game instead of the likes of David Ortiz, Travis Hafner and Jim Thome. That portends to another monster season for Santana.
2007 strikeouts: 235
2008 strikeouts: 251
2. Jake Peavy, SD : Peavy has become one of the league's top strikeout artists, having registered three consecutive years with at least 215 punch outs. His ridiculous strikeout rate (9.02 strikeouts per nine innings pitched) ranks seventh all-time.
2007 strikeouts: 240
2008 strikeouts: 245
3. Erik Bedard, SEA : Bedard established a new career mark with 221 strikeouts in 2007. He's going to a better pitching environment in Seattle and will face weaker competition than the fully-loaded AL East.
2007 strikeouts: 221
2008 strikeouts: 240
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| Aaron Harang was able to maintain a low WHIP in 2007. He should be in line for a strong 2008. (Mark Lyons / Getty Images) |
4. Aaron Harang, CIN : Fantasy owners wanted to see Harang repeat the strikeout excellence of his 2006 season before diving onboard in 2007. He nearly replicated his huge performance, fanning 218 hitters in 231 2/3 innings of work. Harang will work for the hat trick in 2008.
2007 strikeouts: 218
2008 strikeouts: 226
5. Daisuke Matsuzaka, BOS : Matsuzaka experienced an inconsistent first year in America, but he consistently sent batters back to the dugouts while shaking their heads. Matsuzaka struck out seven or more batters in 17 starts last season.
2007 strikeouts: 201
2008 strikeouts: 212
6. Javier Vazquez, CWS : Vazquez enjoyed a phenomenal season for the White Sox in 2007 and posted his highest strikeout total since 2003, his final year in Montreal (213). For his career, Vazquez averages an impressive 7.92 strikeouts per nine innings.
2007 strikeouts: 213
2008 strikeouts: 209
7. James Shields, TB : Shields leapt onto fantasy radars in 2007 with his huge strikeout rate (7.7 per nine innings pitched). He struck out eight or more hitters on 10 occasions.
2007 strikeouts: 184
2008 strikeouts: 202
8. Brandon Webb, ARI : Webb continues to round into one of the game's elite hurlers. He's improved his strikeout total in three consecutive seasons, registering a career-best total of 194 strikeouts in 2007. Webb would best be described as "an innings eater," having pitched 180 or more innings in his five major league campaigns.
2007 strikeouts: 194
2008 strikeouts: 201
9. C.C. Sabathia, CLE : Sabathia struck out a career-high 209 batters in 2007. However, his strikeout rate actually dropped from his 2006 totals (7.8 batters per nine innings as opposed to 8.03 batters in 2006). Provided that he stays healthy, Sabathia's gargantuan workload will rank him among the leaders in 2008.
2007 strikeouts: 209
2008 strikeouts: 199
10. John Smoltz, ATL : This is one veteran pitcher who will never be referred to as "crafty." Smoltz fanned 197 hitters in 2007, the seventh time that he's fanned 193 or more hitters in a season. Barring an injury, Smoltz is money in the bank to be among the category's leaders.
2007 strikeouts: 197
2008 strikeouts: 194
10. Rich Hill, CHC : Hill was a gem for the Cubs and fantasy owners in 2007, and the lefty is primed for even bigger things in 2008. He fanned 183 hitters in his first full season while effectively working the strike zone.
2007 strikeouts: 183
2008 strikeouts: 194
12. Cole Hamels, PHI : Hamels has quickly established himself as a dominant performer for the Phillies. He relies on his blazing heat to set hitters down in short order. Hamels has struck out 9.18 hitters per nine innings pitched in his two big league campaign. If Hamels can stay healthy, he'll top 200 strikeouts in 2008.
2007 strikeouts: 177
2008 strikeouts: 191
13. Josh Beckett, BOS : Beckett experienced a career season in every sense of the word in 2007, establishing new career marks in several categories. The dramatic rise in his strikeout rate from his 2006 season was paramount to his success. Back issues may impact his 2008 campaign. I believe he'll continue to mow down opposing hitters when on the hill.
2007 strikeouts: 194
2008 strikeouts: 190
14. Justin Verlander, DET : Verlander dramatically improved his strikeout rate in 2007 en route to an 18-win season. It was the one element missing from his breakout 2006 season. He effectively works his fastball in the zone and freezes hitters with a devastating curveball.
2007 strikeouts: 183
2008 strikeouts: 190
15. Jeremy Bonderman, DET: Elbow issues sabotaged Bonderman's attempts to replicate his strong 2006 season. Bonderman's strikeout rate dropped by more than one hitter (8.5 to 7.4) from his 202-strikeout campaign. If he can avoid a recurrence of the injury, Bonderman should push north toward 200 strikeouts again.
2007 strikeouts: 145
2008 strikeouts: 187
ERA
1. Jake Peavy, SD: Peavy has become one of the most dominant hurlers in the game, taking full advantage of his home park, the pitcher's paradise known as PETCO Park. He limits walks and routinely posts huge strikeout totals. As a result, Peavy has pitched to a sub-3.00 ERA in three of the past four years.
2007 ERA: 2.54
2008 ERA: 2.79
2. Johan Santana, NYM : Santana served up a ridiculous 33 home runs in 2007, forcing his ERA to a career-worst 3.33. That's right. His career-worst ERA for a full season as a starting pitcher is 3.33. Santana had pitched to ERAs of 3.07 or lower in the five seasons prior to last year's "down" year. He moves to a pitcher's park and will benefit from the absence of the behemoths of the American League with the DH designation.
2007 ERA: 3.33
2008 ERA: 2.84
3. Brandon Webb, ARI : Webb hasn't topped the tremendous 2.84 ERA he posted as a rookie in 2003, but he's rebounded brilliantly from his sophomore slump. His 2004 season was the worst of his career, but he still pitched to a strong 3.59 ERA. Webb has reduced his ERA in each of the three years thereafter.
2007 ERA: 3.01
2008 ERA: 2.98
4. Dan Haren, ARI : I'm somewhat concerned about the moderate dips in his ground ball-to-flyball ratio in each of the past two years. However, Haren returns to the National League and will benefit from the presence of pitchers in the batting order. His improvement in the strikeout column will also continue this year. Expect a new personal best mark for 2008.
2007 ERA: 3.07
2008 ERA: 3.01
5. Erik Bedard, SEA : What's not to like? Bedard has improved his ERA in three straight seasons while increasing his strikeout rate. He moves to a pitcher's park and gets away from the slugging squads of the AL East.
2007 ERA: 3.17
2008 ERA: 3.04
6. Chris Young, SD : His propensity to serve up flyballs is disconcerting, but they go to die in spacious PETCO Park. Young allowed 10 home runs as he learned to pitch in PETCO. His ERA in 2007 was a full 1.24 runs lower than his 2005 effort in Texas.
2007 ERA: 3.12
2008 ERA: 3.10
7. Roy Oswalt, HOU : Oswalt saw hit strikeout rate drop for the third consecutive season, but he still ranked among the best in Major League Baseball with a 3.18 ERA. He made up for his declining strikeout rate with an improvement in his ground ball-to-flyball ratio (a career-best 1.69).
2007 ERA: 3.18
2008 ERA: 3.15
8. Roy Halladay, TOR : Halladay saw his ERA rise by over one half of a run in 2007, caused primarily by three miserable outings in which he surrendered 23 runs in 13 2/3 innings of work. Halladay pitched to a brilliant 2.97 ERA in his other 28 starts.
2007 ERA: 3.71
2008 ERA: 3.19
8. C.C. Sabathia, CLE : Sabathia pitched to new career highs in nearly every category in 2007, including a small bump in his ERA (0.01). He puts up solid strikeout totals, but helps himself immensely with a huge ground ball-to-flyball ratio (1.35 in 2007).
2007 ERA: 3.21
2008 ERA: 3.19
10. John Lackey, LAA : The Angels brought in more defensive help for Lackey and the Angels pitching staff for 2008. Lackey posted a career-best 3.01 ERA last season. He did so primarily because of an increase in his ground ball-to-flyball ratio (1.25 in 2007). I expect his numbers to regress toward the mean somewhat, but the addition of Hunter should help to mitigate the drop-off.
2007 ERA: 3.01
2008 ERA: 3.22
11. Tim Hudson, ATL : Hudson reduced his ERA in 2007 by a full 1.53 runs from his 2006 struggles. Although his strikeout rate actually dropped (5.3 per nine innings pitched), Hudson improved his ground ball-to-flyball ratio dramatically (2.76). That statistic will be a key component to his continued success in 2008.
2007 ERA: 3.33
2008 ERA: 3.25
12. Justin Verlander, DET : Verlander improved his strikeout total immensely in 2007. As he matures, Verlander will work the zone more effectively and keep batters off-balance with his cutter.
2007 ERA: 3.66
2008 ERA: 3.27
13. Josh Beckett, BOS : Beckett's strong 2007 campaign has been well-chronicled. He dramatically improved his strikeout rate while improving his ground ball-to-flyball ratio (1.29). Beckett still serves up too many home runs, but he certainly has the stuff to rank among the leaders in this category this season. The truth lays somewhere between his 5.01 ERA of 2006 and last year's brilliance.
2007 ERA: 3.27
2008 ERA: 3.29
14. Fausto Carmona, CLE : Carmona was one of the top breakout performers of 2007. He induced a ridiculous number of ground balls (3.28 per flyball allowed) to overcome his weak strikeout rate. If Carmona can continue this trend, he can produce another huge win total a la Wang.
2007 ERA: 3.06
2008 ERA: 3.31
15. Gil Meche, KC : Meche was one of the greatest surprises of the 2007 season. He dramatically improved his ground ball-to-flyball rate (1.36 in 2007) and struck out 2.52 hitters per walk allowed. Meche doesn't possess an overpowering fastball, but he effectively works the zone quietly in Kansas City.
2007 ERA: 3.67
2008 ERA: 3.35
WHIP
1. Johan Santana, NYM : Santana pitched to a 1.07 WHIP. It was his worst total since 2003, when he pitched to a 1.10 WHIP for the Twins. In the three years between those marks, Santana pitched to a WHIP of 1.00 or lower. I expect him to challenge his career-best 0.92 WHIP this season.2007 WHIP: 1.07
2008 WHIP: 0.98
2. Jake Peavy, SD : Peavy's does well to limit his walk total while racking up strikeouts. He's pitched to a WHIP of 1.23 or lower in four consecutive seasons (1.04 and 1.06 in two of those years). Peavy is just now entering his prime in a stellar pitcher's park.
2007 WHIP: 1.06
2008 WHIP: 1.03
3. Erik Bedard, SEA : Bedard has reduced his WHIP in three consecutive seasons. He dominated opposing batters in 2007, and will now take full advantage of the spacious outfield of SAFECO.
2007 WHIP: 1.09
2008 WHIP: 1.04
4. Chris Young, SD : Yes, he gets the ball up in the zone too much. But, he's got the strikeout punch to off-set his mistakes, and opponents can't catch up to his stuff. Opponents batted a feeble .192 against him in 2007. Expect more of the same in PETCO for 2008.
2007 WHIP: 1.10
2008 WHIP: 1.08
5. Cole Hamels, PHI : I fear his home park, to be sure. However, his huge strikeout punch and small walk total help me to breathe easier.
2007 WHIP: 1.12
2008 WHIP: 1.10
6. James Shields, TB : Shields struck out 5.1 hitters per walk in 2007. He allowed only 36 walks in 215 innings, a positively ridiculous total. As he matures in the Tampa rotation, Shields will continue to mow down opposing hitters. I'm excited about his prospects for 2008.
2007 WHIP: 1.11
2008 WHIP: 1.12
7. Aaron Harang, CIN : Harang took another step forward in 2007, allowing fewer hits per nine innings than he had in years past. He continued to strike out opposing hitters in bunches while issuing few free passes. Harang is one of many reasons that Reds fans are excited about the 2008 campaign.
2007 WHIP: 1.14
2008 WHIP: 1.13
8. John Smoltz, ATL : Smoltz has not posted a WHIP higher than 1.19 since 1995. I don't really know what else needs to be written.
2007 WHIP: 1.18
2008 WHIP: 1.15
9. Rich Hill, CHC : What's not to like? He struck out nearly three hitters per walk in 2007. Remember, it was his first full season! It was only the beginning of what promises to be a tremendous career.
2007 WHIP: 1.19
2008 WHIP: 1.16
9. C.C. Sabathia, CLE : Sabathia flat out doesn't walk hitters (only 81 in his past 433 innings pitched), something that helps fantasy owners draft him with confidence. He's come into his own in the past two years, effectively limiting the free passes to drop his WHIP to a career-best 1.14 in 2007. Despite being a seven-year major league veteran, Sabathia is just now entering his prime (he's only 27!).
2007 WHIP: 1.14
2008 WHIP: 1.16
11. Brandon Webb, ARI : Webb's walk rate rose slightly in 2007, but his BAA dropped nine points. He eats innings and racks up strikeouts.
2007 WHIP: 1.19
2008 WHIP: 1.17
12. Josh Beckett, BOS : Beckett nearly cut his walk rate in half last year. As a result, he dropped his WHIP dramatically. That's the key to his success in 2008 (and his health, of course).
2007 WHIP: 1.14
2008 WHIP: 1.18
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| Javier Vazquez has a nice career strikeouts-per-inning average. He'll look to continue his productive 2007 form. (Jeff Gross / Getty Images) |
13. Javier Vazquez, CWS : Vazquez reduced his hit rate and continued to limit his walks (50 in 216 2/3 innings pitched) in 2007. He will still struggle at times (1.34 August WHIP), but the fact that he can overpower hitters at time will help mitigate the damage.
2007 WHIP: 1.14
2008 WHIP: 1.18
14. Justin Verlander, DET : Verlander reduced his WHIP by 0.10 from his 2006 totals, effectively reducing his walk and hit rates simultaneously. The most impressive part of the story was the dramatic rise in his strikeout rate. Verlander will continue to improve in his third full season.
2007 WHIP: 1.23
2008 WHIP: 1.20
15. Ted Lilly, CHC : All he needed was a switch to the National League. Who knew? Lilly parlayed his move to Chicago with the finest full season of his career. His hit rate dropped markedly, and he allowed far fewer walks than he had during his final year in Toronto. I don't expect him to repeat his 1.14 WHIP total, but a run to 1.20 isn't out of the question given his high strikeout potential.
2007 WHIP: 1.14
2008 WHIP: 1.22
Saves
1. J.J. Putz, SEA : Putz possesses overpowering stuff and will now have another top-flight hurler in the rotation to get him additional opportunities. He'll be hard-pressed to match his ridiculous 2007 totals overall, but he'll flourish in this column.2007 Saves: 40
2008 Saves: 45
2. Jonathan Papelbon, BOS : Papelbon dominated in his return to the pen with huge strikeout totals and great control. He's now added another pitch and will have ample opportunities to close games out behind this unit.
2007 Saves: 37
2008 Saves: 43
2. Francisco Rodriguez, LAA : Rodriguez racks up strikeouts and slams the door shut. He's recorded 40 or more saves in three straight seasons. The addition of Hunter in center field can only help the cause.
2007 Saves: 40
2008 Saves: 43
4. Bobby Jenks, CWS : Jenks will give you anxious moments, but he ultimately closes things outs effectively. He has saved 81 games in the past two years. Last year, Jenks dominated opponents, limiting batters to a composite .198 batting average. The White Sox shored up their middle relief this off-season, so Jenks may see additional save opportunities.
2007 Saves: 40
2008 Saves: 42
5. Takashi Saito, LAD : Saito has been dominant since coming to the Dodgers. He's saved 63 games with 5.14 strikeouts per walk.
2007 Saves: 39
2008 Saves: 41
6. Billy Wagner, NYM : The Mets have some question marks in the rotation, but the addition of Santana to the mix alongside an emerging John Maine portends to big things for Wagner this year. Wagner continues to dominate opposing hitters, striking out more than one batter per inning of work. He'll be a phenomenal performer for fantasy owners in 2008.
2007 Saves: 34
2008 Saves: 40
6. Trevor Hoffman, SD : He struggled late in the season, but still recorded 40= saves for the fourth consecutive year and ninth time in his career. Hoffman doesn't have the devastating strikeout numbers any longer, but he knows how to get outs.
2007 Saves: 42
2008 Saves: 40
8. Jose Valverde, HOU : Arizona fans always held their collective breath when Valverde entered games in 2007. However, he successfully closed out 47 games while striking out three hitters per walk. He's been hit-or-miss as a closer in the past, so there is some risk associated with his selection.
2007 Saves: 47
2008 Saves: 39
9. Francisco Cordero, CIN : Cordero effectively limits walks and has the ability to punch hitters out (86 strikeouts in 2007). His move to Great American Ballpark is somewhat frightening, but this team will win games in 2008.
2007 Saves: 44
2008 Saves: 38
9. Joe Nathan, MIN : Nathan has been one of the most dominant closers in the game for four seasons, averaging 40 saves per year. The loss of Johan Santana certainly raises questions for this year (who's filling the back of the rotation?), but he'll make the most of his opportunities. Additionally, there's still a possibility that Nathan gets dealt during the year.
2007 Saves: 37
2008 Saves: 38
9. Chad Cordero, WAS : Cordero struggled at times during the 2007 season, but still recorded 37 saves. He serves as a great reminder that stats can be found on every team. Cordero was markedly more hittable in 2007 than he'd been in the two years prior. I expect him to get back on track this season.
2007 Saves: 37
2008 Saves: 38
12. Joe Borowski, CLE : Borowski saved 45 games in 2007. Unfortunately, fantasy owners were also saddled with his bloated ERA (5.07) and WHIP (1.43) numbers. The Indians should win a lot of games in 2008, so he retains a spot near the top of the list. However, the Indians do have Rafael Betancourt and Masahide Kobayashi at the ready should he falter.
2007 Saves: 45
2008 Saves: 37
12. Mariano Rivera, NYY : Rivera's two blown saves in April sent Yankee fans to the crisis hotlines. He blew two opportunities during the remainder of the season. Rivera has saved 28 or more games in 11 consecutive seasons. Now, it's just a matter of this rotation finding him opportunities.
2007 Saves: 30
2008 Saves: 37
14. Manny Corpas, COL : Corpas was rewarded for his 2007 brilliance with a new four-year deal. He saved 19 games with nearly three strikeouts per walk, impressively allowing only six home runs in 78 innings pitched.
2007 Saves: 19
2008 Saves: 36
14. Todd Jones, DET : His spring struggles are somewhat disconcerting, but there isn't an obvious candidate to replace Jones given the injuries in the Tigers pen. Jones will give you some anxious moments because of his low strikeout rate. However, he'll be ready to answer the call for the Tigers, a team that should win an awful lot of games in 2008.
2007 Saves: 38
2008 Saves: 36
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