Sleepers and flops: Can Griffey stay healthy again?
Manny Ramirez used to be a lock for the first rounds, but will he ever go for more than 30 and 100 anymore? Free agents Barry Bonds' and Sammy Sosa's best days are behind them too. And they aren't alone.
Although there are some big names at the top of the outfield heap (Matt Holliday, Carlos Beltran, Grady Sizemore, Alfonso Soriano and Ichiro), most the others don't pack nearly as much punch.
How excited are you — really — when you select Nick Markakis, Curtis Granderson or Eric Byrnes? I mean, they're nice players and everything, but they don't illicit any oohs or ahhs from the masses when you announce their names at your draft party.
Don't get me wrong. Those are indeed the kind of players you need to get you to the top, but they're not All-Stars. They're not who the league goes to in order to market themselves. They aren't even one of the three best players on their respective teams.
But there's one more they aren't, and that's a sleeper. Fantasy geeks, like us, will choose all these guys in the draft's first three rounds. But I have a list of other players you'll be able to pick much deeper and still be more than happy with. But beware the flops! I'll give you a couple of those to be on the lookout for as well.
What can I say? I'm a giver.
Sleepers
Vernon Wells, Toronto
He's been an All-Star before, but a bum shoulder ruined his '07 season. He played through it, going for only 16 home runs, 80 RBI and a .245 average. That was just a single year after going for 32 HR, 106 RBI and a .303 mark. You could get the jump on many of your other owners by grabbing him in the sixth round or so. In our FOX Experts Draft, he fell to the bottom of the seventh, and I think that's a steal for a guy who could easily get back to those same numbers he put up just two seasons ago.
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Chris Young, Arizona
Everyone's going to bring up his ugly batting average when his name surfaces on draft day, but I wouldn't worry about that too much. What you do know about him is that he'll have a full season of playing everyday, and his manager will be giving him the green light to run and swing as he pleases. He has all the tools to be a 30-30 guy for years, whether or not his average comes along for the ride. He'll be scoring runs and driving more of them in this year as well, so there's no reason not to plug him in your lineup for the duration.
Delmon Young, Minnesota
One of my favorite players this year couldn't have found a better home than Minnesota. This is an organization that takes care of its young players better than just about any in baseball, and he'll be out there everyday with Ron Gardenhire helping him along. They might not have Torii Hunter to help groom his game this year, but there are plenty other veterans on their roster that will keep him in line with the team concept. I have a feeling he'll flourish in that environment. I see a 30-30 type season coming from him as well.
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| Jeff Francoeur will be the heart of the Braves lineup in '08. (Rob Tringali / Getty Images) |
Jeff Francoeur, Atlanta
I've heard this guy talk during Spring Training about what he has to work on in his game, and you can just tell he "gets it." He knows he has to cut down on the strikeouts and increase his average and become more of a leader on the Braves. I believe he's really working on all those things. Just listening to him, you can tell he's the genuine article. There's no reason why he can't go for 30 homers, 110 RBI and get his average into a more respectable .280 area or so. He's gonna be in the middle of that lineup all season long, and the numbers are sure to be there. Atlanta's gonna be a better team than many may think this year, and he'll be one of the main reasons.
Hideki Matsui, New York Yankees
Talk about flying under the radar. There was a time when Matsui was a 25-homer, 100-RBI, 100-run, .300-average hitter. I remember that, yeah. It was just last year! So then, why is he falling to 15th rounds around fantasy leagues these days? I don't get it. You can pretty much lock him in for those kind of numbers every season. When he broke he wrist two seasons ago, it was the only time he had ever been hurt in any league. He's a durable guy who's as consistent as they come, and you can get him at a super reasonable price this season.
Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers
He has as much potential as any player in the game today. Anytime the Dodgers have called him up, he's totally crushed the baseball. In just half a season in '07, Kemp went for 10 home runs, 42 RBI, a huge .342 average and stole 10 bases. With the leashes off this season, and him locked into a starting role under Joe Torre, you better expect a 25-HR, 100-RBI, 25-steal campaign. And that's the conservative estimate! No telling how big those numbers could actually inflate with the type of heavy artillery the Dodgers have throughout that lineup this year.
Kosuke Fukodome, Chicago Cubs
Putting a big lefty stick in the middle of Alfonso Soriano, Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez could work wonders for everyone involved. I've attempted to pick him up in virtually every league I've been in thus far, considering where his projected value has him falling. If he gets me even 25 dingers, 80 RBI and a .290 average, he's a steal in the 13-16th rounds, so anything more than that would be highway robbery. I'm somehow willing to risk the fact the former Japanese League MVP can surpass those numbers and reach Matsui status quickly.
Cameron Maybin, Florida
He's in a battle to win the centerfield position in Florida, but if he does — and he has the upper hand — then look out. The Marlins would be wise too, since the chances of them contending this season will be long. May as well let your top prospect run free. I mean, he just had a two-homer spring game recently, is hitting well and needs to get major league at-bats sooner rather than later. Take a flyer on him late in your draft and hold on to him. I think you'll be glad you did.
Melky Cabrera, New York Yankees
He officially had a full season with the Yankees last season, but his best numbers are still ahead of him. His 73 RBI, 10 steals and .275 average were all less than stellar, but I have to think those will all get a big boost this year as he knows he's going to be out there in center everyday. I think he can approach 100 RBI and get his home runs up closer to the 20 mark. Manager Joe Girardi will also likely allow him to run a little more often, so 20 stolen bases wouldn't be out of the question, either. He's a sleeper with a lot of upside, since he hits at the backside of one of the best lineups in the game.
Justin Upton, Arizona
Another young kid just preparing to come into his own out in Arizona. Upton has some super tools and could also be a 30-30 guy in the future. Probably not now, though. He's likely closer to the 18-22 home run level and the 70-90 ribbies, but you can just see the skills. Pick him up late, hoping for him to explode at some point. You'll look like a genius.
Flops
Aaron Rowand, San Francisco
Rowand goes from one of the best lineups in the National League to the oldest and probably worst one out in San Fran. Even at his best, his home runs and RBI will both go down — for separate reasons. The ballpark itself will limit his longballs, while the lack of hitters around him will keep all the other totals down. He doesn't steal enough bases to make a real difference in that category, and the average is nondescript as well. He can't help but lose value.
Ken Griffey, Cincinnati
I love Griff as much as anyone, but last season was the first one in seemingly decades in which he hasn't gotten injured. What are the odds he gets through this year unscathed too?! I say it's pretty damn doubtful. He'll come up lame at some point, and owners who risked drafting him will wonder what happened.
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