Sleepers and flops: Gorzelanny's quietly a star
by Gerrit Ritt, FOXSports.com
There is no such thing as a sure thing when it comes to those delicate right and left shoulders, elbows and rotator cuffs, but we do the best we can in order to sort out the best of the best come draft day.
There are several guys I like to have breakout seasons in 2008, and I guess I'm just nice enough a guy to let you in on all my trade secrets. My own leaguemates love me for it. I can't seem to tell why.
Sleepers
Wandy Rodriguez, Houston
First of all, check the strikeout numbers. Wandy throws gas and strikes people out in the process. Sure, he pitches in a hitter's paradise in Houston, but he'll learn to deal with that. It's going to help him having such a better lineup around him this year as well, which should bump him from nine to 14-15 wins on its own. He has wicked stuff, and he's been in the league long enough now to put it to good use. Look for a nice season out of him. Something tells me you can already pick him up off your waiver wire at this point, too.
Justin Duchscherer, Oakland
One of the more dominant setup men in the business will try his hand as a starter for the A's this season, and it should be interesting to watch. He's been so good at what he does the last few years, though, that owners have had no problem having him on their teams despite his relative lack of saves or wins. He's a strikeout, ERA and WHIP machine, and now the wins and even more whiffs will find their way into your boxscore. He's also likely available at both starter and reliever in your respective leagues, which is a bonus as well. People are passing him over altogether, but not me. I like the idea of snagging him in the last couple rounds and hoping for the best.
Jair Jurrjens, Atlanta
The newest member of the Braves starting rotation (unless you count either Tom Glavine or Mike Hampton) comes in with some glowing endorsements. The Tigers weren't excited about giving him up, but if it brings you Edgar Renteria, I suppose I would've pulled the trigger as well. Jurrjens went 3-1 in seven appearances with Detroit last season, giving up just 24 hits in 30 2/3 innings. The 4.70 ERA wasn't too hot, and he could strike out more batters than he did in that limited span, but the potential is there to make things interesting this season. Plus, the Braves have a funny eye for good pitching. I'll go with their track record and keep believing they'll turn him into a star.
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| Nobody seems to want Noah Lowry in drafts, but he had 14 wins and a sub-4.00 ERA on a bad Giants team in '07. (Lisa Blumenfeld / Getty Images) |
Noah Lowry, San Francisco
Lowry was a casualty of the Giants' ugly season last year, as was their ace, Matt Cain. Both had ERAs under 4.00 and solid totals everywhere but the win column. In actuality, his 14 wins were about as good as anyone could've hoped for, yet he's still not getting drafted anywhere, which doesn't make any sense. I know the Giants don't look to be good again this season, but even if he duplicates his 14-8 record and 3.92 ERA, you'll enjoy having him on your squad. My money says that ERA probably improves, as will his low strikeout total, even though you'll probably have to wait a couple weeks for him to get his season underway (minor arm injury). However, all that'll do will drop him even further down in the draft.
Micah Owings, Arizona
He's had an ugly spring, but Owings is a huge intimidating presence who will benefit from having such incredible pitchers on either side of him in the D-Back's rotation. He'll be the fourth starter after superstars Brandon Webb, Randy Johnson and Dan Haren. He had nine starts last season in which he gave up just one or no runs, which proves to me he has the tools to be a dominant starter in this league. It doesn't hurt that he hits better than half the everyday players in the league, too! That may not help you, though, unless you're able to petition the league to include pitcher's hitting stats in the overall numbers. Dare to dream.
Hiroki Kuroda, Los Angeles Dodgers
One of the great unknowns coming into the season, as all Japanese imports are. Some like Ichiro and Hideki Matsui are terrific and perform beyond expectations, but others such as Hideki Irabu and Kaz Ishii have faded away quickly. Kuroda has the talent, there's no doubt about that. He also has one of the best parks to pitch in. Thirdly, he has terrific protection around him in Andruw Jones, Russell Martin and several other young talented players to keep him in games longer. Look for about 12-15 wins, close to 150 strikeouts and enough innings to make himself worthy of a steal in the later rounds.
Andrew Miller, Florida
Another ex-Tigers prospect that found his way out of town this off-season in a big blockbuster trade. He was one of the two prizes the Marlins received for giving up Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, and the team will immediately thrust him into the top of the rotation. He's likely to start the year as the second or third starter for Florida, and you can count on a ton of strikeouts when he's out there. There's a chance he doesn't break out quite yet, but there's also a chance he explodes in his new media-free home on South Beach. There's too much potential here for him to remain undrafted. Take a flier on him late and see if you can't get the steal of the year.
Tom Gorzelanny, Pittsburgh
How can a guy with a 14-10 record and 3.88 ERA for a team as far down the standings as the Pirates still go near the bottom of drafts around the country? I know many people don't pay attention to Pittsburgh, but Gorzelanny has all the makings of a superstar. Even with shoulder soreness this spring, he dominated Boston hitters late in exhibition play, which makes me feel really good about him getting off to a good start. He's locked into the No. 1 starter role for the Pirates, which means he should be locked into your draft board as well.
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| Andy Sonnanstine finished last season strong for the Rays, making him a candidate for a big year in Tampa. ( Otto Greule, Jr. / Getty Images) |
Andy Sonnanstine, Tampa Bay
You may not have realized this, but Sonnanstine went 5-2 to end last season after starting his rookie year with Tampa Bay 1-8. He's been developing a new pitch as well, which coaches have been raving about during his dominating spring. You can consider him fourth in the rotation now, but he's climbing up that ladder quickly. He has a decent strikeout number too, and hardly anyone outside the most intelligent of expert drafters are picking this guy up. Have the rest of your league asking you "Who the heck is that> guy?" when you snag him in the 20th round.
Kevin Slowey, Minnesota
Minnesota's top prospect is on pace to become the team's fifth starter heading into the season, thanks to a strong spring. The Twins think he'll be every bit as good as Francisco Liriano will, which is incredibly high praise. He has a similar heater, but brings it from the right side instead of the left. He was 4-1 in 11 starts last season and had 47 strikeouts in 66 2/3 innings, which looks good to me. Even if you don't wanna draft him, keep him in mind when he has a couple good starts to kick off the year.
Flops
Dan Haren, Arizona
OK, don't think this means I believe he's going to have a terrible season. All I'm saying here is that there's no way he lives up to his draft status. He's been going really high in every league I've seen thus far, but going from a terrific pitcher's park to a terrific hitter's park will have to effect his numbers — at least early on. I hope I'm wrong, but I'm not going anywhere near him this season, just because I think I can get the equivalent of two strong players for the price of one Dan Haren. His wins could conceivably go up in Arizona, but there's no way the ERA and WHIP don't falter.
Mike Mussina, New York Yankees
It could be said the 39-year-old Mussina had his worst season as a pro last year. An 11-10 record, 91 strikeouts and 5.15 ERA were all either career lows or right next to it. He just never seemed to get on track last year, and this year could be a similar one to that. If he goes for 15 wins, even in that power packed Yankee lineup, I'll be shocked. I don't know if I could justify drafting him at all this year, especially since it doesn't seem as if he's getting any better at this stage of his career.
Kelvim Escobar, Los Angeles Angels
He's already starting the year on the DL, and then there will be the "getting back in the groove" stage. He had a monster year in '07, so with these injuries jumping on him, there's no way for him to go anywhere but down. It might not be a steep decline, but it'll still be a significant one. He could be an asset later in the year, but he may hurt your chances early on.
James Shields, Tampa Bay
Not that I don't like Shields, but he went through a real tough stretch last season after starting off like a mad man. His team's improving, but he may have peaked for the time being. I say he levels off into an average pitcher at best, someone you should take no higher than the middle to low rounds. Scott Kazmir and Sonnanstine are the ones with the real potential for stardom in that rotation.
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