Sleepers and flops: Why is Jenks underrated?
by Gerrit Ritt, FOXSports.com
There are plenty of decent ones to go around, and half the league seems to turn over their closers at some point in the season. It's obviously not an exact science, but it's a safe play.
I mean, who would've bet on Jose Valverde, Francisco Cordero and Manny Corpsa to have such strong seasons in 2007? Get yourself two decent ones, then pick one or two up on the waiver wire along the way.
While you're saving valuable spots in the draft by not taking Jonathan Papelbon in the fifth round, you could be grabbing Robinson Cano (who I chose directly after Papelbon in a recent draft) or Eric Byrnes, who someone else chose with the following selection.
Once Brad Lidge or Trevor Hoffman (both taken more than 10 rounds later) put up just three saves less than Papelbon, then you can tell me who you think got the better end of the deal.
Nevertheless, it's a necessary position, even if it's virtually for one category alone. Necessary enough, at least, to where I better let you know who I think would make for good and bad selections at the position this season.
Sleepers
Matt Capps, Pittsburgh
He took over as the Pirates' closer about midway through last season, yet still put together a big-time year. His 18 saves, 15 holds, 64 strikeouts and 2.28 ERA in just 79 innings has him firmly entrenched as the full-time closer coming into '08. Many owners are a little hesitant to pick up a closer on a potentially poor team, but he's good enough to make for a great steal late in your draft.
Troy Percival, Tampa Bay
He wasn't even in the game for a couple seasons recently, thanks to arm problems. Well, his 90-plus mph fastball will prove he's over that now. He had an unbelievable year as St. Louis' setup man in '07, going 3-0 with a beautiful 1.80 ERA and 36 strikeouts in 40 innings, despite not even playing the entire season. It earned him a nice contract with the Rays to be their closer, and they're looking more and more like they could surprise some people this season. Percival will be shutting down games from day one, so feel free to grab him about 10 rounds after the rest of the chumps are reaching for J.J. Putz, Francisco Rodriguez and Joe Nathan.
Rafael Soriano, Atlanta
This will be Soriano's first year as a full-time closer, and I see no reason why he won't immediately become one of the best in the game at it. He's certainly paid his dues, being a setup man for five years in both Seattle and Atlanta, and never posting an ERA high than 3.00. He stepped in as the Braves' stopper late last season and put up nine saves and 70 strikeouts in 72 innings of work. This year, he'll be the man the entire season, and Atlanta looks to be vastly improved with as balanced a starting staff as any in baseball. There will be plenty of opportunities for him, which will make you happy to have him on your side.
Brandon Lyon, Arizona
Lyon was named Arizona's closer in the off-season, shortly after the team dealt Jose Valverde to the Astros for middle reliever Chad Qualls and utilityman Chris Burke. His numbers have constantly been getting better throughout his career, so he's earned his shot. In '07. He posted a 2.68 ERA and had 35 holds and two saves in 73 appearances for the D-Backs. This is a team that could easily contend for the National League crown, so jump on him earlier than the rest do and laugh all the way to the bank.
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| White Sox closer Bobby Jenks has put up at least 40 saves two straight seasons. (Jonathan Daniel / Getty Images) |
Bobby Jenks, Chicago White Sox
This is a guy I can't really figure out. All he's done is put up 40 and 41 saves the last two years, yet people are letting him slide down draft boards like he has the plague. I know the White Sox were filthy bad last season, but that won't be the case again, as they've made a couple nice moves in order to improve their team. Jenks puts up big strikeout numbers, had a 2.77 ERA in '07 and has more than a 3:1 K/BB ratio as a pro. He'll undoubtedly slip in your draft too, but don't be afraid of it. I have him in virtually every league I'm in right now because of it, and I have no problem with that whatsoever.
Flops
Jeremy Accardo, Toronto
I like Accardo's game, but there's just too much not to like here. Despite a huge season, in which he posted 30 saves, 57 strikeouts and a sweet-looking 2.14 ERA in 67 1/3 innings, he'll be challenged by the team's incumbent closer, B.J. Ryan, this year. It doesn't seem completely fair, but Ryan was signed for some big bucks two years ago before blowing his arm out before last season. He'll be given every chance to regain the role, though Accardo will likely start the regular season as the man for now. He'll get you a few to start your year off, but it may be short lived. Maybe he impresses so much, the team can't afford to demote him back to being the setup man, but it's doubtful. This is Ryan's job, like it or not. Accardo's just holding on to it for safe keeping.
C.J. Wilson, Texas
His numbers looked like everybody else's on this list last season: 63 strikeouts in 68 1/3 innings, a 3.03 ERA and 12 saves in 14 chances once he took over for an injured Akinori Otsuka. He'll start the season as the Rangers' closer again, yet the team went out and signed proven stopper Eddie Guardado in the off-season. Now, Guardado is by no means a super threat, but he's waiting to take over should Wilson slip up. And being that Wilson has only been a closer for about two months, his leash will be shorter than most others' if he has a bad game or two. I like him overall, and the team was willing to give up on Otsuka because Wilson was around, but he's by no means a proven commodity.
Todd Jones, Detroit
He's one of the more likable guys in baseball, can still bring the 95 miles-per-hour heat and plays for one of the best teams in the game today. So, why am I putting him on this list? Fernando Rodney, that's why. Rodney's been waiting for his shot for two years now, and Jones' 1-4 record and 4.26 ERA last season will make it a lot easier for Rodney to slip into the position if Jones looks bad to start the season. Fortunately, for Jones owners, Rodney had almost identical numbers to Jones last year, but he was coming off an injury and still strikes out more than a batter an inning. He's not a lock to take over, but he forces Jones owners to own him, too, since it could happen at any moment.
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