Mound musings: Don't mind the spring totals
by FOXSports.com
You really need to trust a guy's regular season track record and minimize spring training accomplishments or lack thereof. On the flip side, fantasy baseball is partially about rolling the dice on occasion, and some of the guys with poor regular season track records who are performing well in spring training may very well carry their success beyond Opening Day.
Here are some guys I'm classifying as "rising" and "falling" based on recent reports:
RISING
Rich Harden, Oakland - Sure, it's just one game, but Harden looked really good in shutting down Boston over six innings on Wednesday. He's a guy who could potentially provide $25 in value or $5. In most leagues I'm seeing him go for $12-$15, and that was before Wednesday. If you can deal him for a nice return right now, by all means do so, but other owners are likely to be as wary as you are. Still, so far so good.
Joe Nathan, Minnesota - Already an elite reliever, Nathan solidified his status as a top AL closer with a three-year contract extension, as there's no longer a risk he'll be dealt to the NL and/or become a setup man.
Randy Wolf, San Diego - Perhaps the back end of the Padres rotation won't be so awful after all. Wolf's looked great in his last few starts and should be an asset in Petco Park if his arm can hold up.
Manny Parra, Milwaukee - Sure, he's looked pretty bad in his last two outings, but Parra locked down a rotation spot with the elbow injury to Chris Capuano and Claudio Vargas' surprise release. Parra 's a trendy pick.
Ryan Dempster, Chicago Cubs - Secured a rotation spot, but can he stay healthy and effective? Reserve him until you have an answer, but at least he could have some NL-only value as a starter. He had none as a middle reliever.
Edwin Jackson, Tampa Bay - Back-to-back solid outings, including a nice seven-inning stint on Monday. He'll open as the No. 5 starter. Some AL-only value.
Rafael Soriano, Atlanta - Soriano's already positioned as a solid second-tier closer, and now that he appears over his early spring elbow problems, he's worth a $15-plus bid in mixed leagues. He struck out the side vs. the Mets on Tuesday.
Kerry Wood, Chicago Cubs - Wood will open as the Cubs' closer, but his ability to last the season, or even pitch back-to-back days, still leaves Carlos Marmol with a shot at 15 saves, even without an extended DL stint for Wood.
Denny Bautista, Detroit - Here's a deep sleeper for AL-only leaguers. Bautista, a former Royals top prospect, has made the Tigers as a reliever. He's allowed just one run in 10 2/3 innings this spring, and with an old and often ineffective closer in Todd Jones and two injured setup men (Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney), Bautista could find himself working the late innings at some point this year. He has a career major league K:BB of just 7:5, but perhaps he's simply a late bloomer.
Manny Delcarmen, Boston - I'm starting to like Delcarmen as an AL-only sleeper. Manager Terry Francona's already pledged to use him in the late innings, probably mixing and matching him with Hideki Okajima in the seventh and eighth. He's had an excellent spring (1.29 ERA, 5:0 K:BB in 7 2/3 innings).
Cliff Lee, Cleveland - Lee wins the No. 5 starter job by basically being less awful than Jeremy Sowers and Aaron Laffey. He had a 5.27 spring ERA and allowed a whopping 21 hits in 13 2/3 innings with a 10:5 K:BB. He's proven effective in the past and is a former 18-game winner, but outside of deep mixed and AL-only leagues, he's probably going to disappoint. Still, a lefty with past success and a starting job is worth mentioning.
Masahide Kobayashi, Cleveland - Kobayashi's emerging as an intriguing sleeper for potential saves this year. Reportedly, if Joe Borowski loses his job (highly possible at some point this year), then Kobayashi, not Rafael Betancourt, would be tapped to close. We'll see. I'd still rate Betancourt higher, but watch the reports out of Cleveland when/if Borowski struggles.
John Danks, Chicago White Sox - Danks struggled a bit in his last start, but prior to that had been sporting a 3.77 ERA and 15:14 K:BB in 14 1/3 innings. A scout I spoke with predicted a breakout year for him. He's certainly always had talent, and though he's prone to the home run ball and pitches in a tough park, there's value to be had.
John Maine, New York Mets - Maine's already the Mets' second best starter, and he looks poised for a true breakout in 2008. I want him on as many of my teams as possible.
Mike Pelfrey, New York Mets - With no better options, the Mets have tapped Pelfrey as their No. 5 starter this year despite a 5.79 spring ERA. A high draft pick, he definitely has talent, but he seems to have little idea where his slider is going. Reserve him until we see how he does in his first start.
Odalis Perez, Washington - I didn't quite believe my eyes when I read that Perez would be the Nationals' Opening Day starter, but alas, it's true. I suppose since he's been pitching fairly well and seems to have a secure rotation spot, that a $1 bid in NL-only leagues is acceptable, but do we really need to tell you to be wary?
Falling
Huston Street, Oakland - Don't knock him too far down on Opening Day alone, but yeah, he looked brutal. My Tout Wars team isn't off to a good start.
Chad Billingsley, Los Angeles Dodgers - I still like him, but he's really having problems locating the changeup this spring. This may very well be a case of "spring training stats are meaningless", but as a Billingsley owner (multiple times), I'm a little nervous.
Scott Kazmir, Tampa Bay - I'm still worried about the elbow. He's long-tossing now, meaning we might not see him at full strength until May, assuming no setbacks.
Homer Bailey, Cincinnati - Six walks against the Royals on Monday is less than stellar. With the emergence of Johnny Cueto, a couple months of solid performance at Triple-A could lead the Reds to shop Bailey, perhaps in a deal for Joe Blanton.
B.J. Ryan, Toronto - It's not surprising that Ryan's feeling discomfort in his surgically-repaired left elbow. Right now, the Jays are targeting a mid-April return, but we know enough now to not trust a word that comes out of Toronto related to injuries, so figure Ryan being out until early May. Even then, he may not be able to go back-to-back days until the second half of the season. Jeremy Accardo will fill in.
Chris Volstad, Florida - So much for Volstad making the team as the No. 5 starter - two innings, seven runs in his last start. Don't expect to see him again until August.
Brandon Lyon, Arizona - I know, I know, spring training stats are irrelevant, but that doesn't make Lyon's 16.20 spring ERA in 6 2/3 innings any less eye-popping. Because his status as the Arizona closer is shaky to begin with, further struggles the first couple weeks of the season could result in an opportunity for Tony Pena or Chad Qualls.
Kelvim Escobar, Los Angeles Angels - Escobar has a tear in his shoulder that could require season-ending surgery and, possibly, end his career. His throwing program was shut down because of shoulder pain. He'll spend another two weeks trying to strengthen the shoulder, but if he doesn't improve significantly, surgery would have to be considered. So far, he's discussing this in terms of a worst-case scenario, but obviously such talk should be enough for fantasy owners to avoid him.
Clay Buchholz, Boston - Don't get me wrong, I'm a huge Buchholz fan, but it just might not all come together this year. He went for $15 in the AL-only Tout Wars auction, but I'm not seeing the value. We know he's going to have his innings limited this year, and with a spring training ERA of 9.34, he's yet to even lock down the No. 5 starter job over bums like Kyle Snyder and Julian Tavarez. Non-keeper leaguers looking to catch lightening in a bottle may end up getting burned, or at least semi-charred.
Dontrelle Willis, Detroit - I've changed my tune 180 degrees here. Previously, I was buying into the change of leagues, better defense and fresh start theories, but here are Willis' spring training numbers to date: 13 2/3 innings, 17 hits, 10 ER, 11 BB, 7 K, 6.59 ERA. I'm staying far away.
Francisco Liriano, Minnesota - Despite four scoreless innings Sunday, Liriano's spring ERA sits at 5.06. His 8:7 K:BB in 10 2/3 innings speaks to the difficulty Tommy John survivors have in regaining their post-surgery command. There's the possibility he could spend the first month of the season in Triple-A as he works his way back, and though he could be a nice fantasy contributor over the season's second half, do you really want to invest $15 to find out?
Anthony Reyes, St. Louis - I'm not sure what the source of the tension is between Reyes and pitching coach Dave Duncan, but despite a 3.32 ERA this spring, he'll begin the year in the bullpen with far more mediocre options Brad Thompson and Todd Wellemeyer as the No. 4 and No. 5 starters, respectively. Reyes needs out of St. Louis in the worst way.
Scot Shields (LAA) - Shields will open the year on the disabled list due to an inflamed forearm. Considering the decline in his performance last year, his days as a dominant setup man might be coming to an end.
Bob Howry, Chicago Cubs - Howry looks to be the forgotten man in the Chicago bullpen. If current closer Kerry Wood falters, even Lou Piniella probably can't deny Carlos Marmol a shot at the job. Very deep NL-only leagues may want to toss a reserve pick Howry's way, but that's about it.
Pat Neshek and Mark Guerrier, Minnesota - Joe Nathan's contract extension pretty much slashes their roto values to nil, barring injury.
Article first appeared 3/27/08
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