'08 predictions: Gazing into my crystal ball
However, I'm going to step back for a moment to make some final predictions for 2008. In a couple cases, I'm stepping out on huge limbs (see the final one for my late-night rambling longshot) and one or two might appear to be lay-ups, but as we've learned through the years, there aren't a whole lot of "givens" in this game. Don't worry. I'm not going to spend any time talking about Johan Santana, Jake Peavy or Alex Rodriguez and I've saved the talk of trips to the disabled list by Rich Harden or Ben Sheets.
Let's start in Cleveland, where a powerful first baseman is ready to step into the spotlight.
1. Fantasy breakthrough hero, thy name is "Garko." It just rolls off of the tongue. Garko and Pronk, Travis Hafner, team with Grady Sizemore and Victor Martinez to form one of the most fearsome quartets in the game. His huge power numbers in 2007 serve as a flashing sign of things to come from this Stanford product. Garko roped 29 doubles in 2007, and the return of Hafner to his 2006 form means plenty of fat pitches to hit. He'll hit 35 home runs this season and push toward 100 RBI.
2. Rejuvenation and redemption is in the cards for Houston shortstop Miguel Tejada. Hey, I'm just playing with how his 2007 stats were played out in the media. Tejada batted .296 with 18 home runs and 81 RBI in 133 games, the first time that he hadn't played in 162 games since 2001. Batting in Minute Maid Park alongside Carlos Lee, Hunter Pence and Lance Berkman and with speedster Michael Bourn tormenting opposing hurlers on the basepaths, Tejada will be back in a big way. I'm calling for 27 home runs, 110 RBI and a .312 batting average.
3. The coronation of the Tigers has already begun as everyone lines up to laud the dominance of the starting lineup and the off-season move to bring in Miguel Cabrera. There's no question. This offense is positively stacked, with Cabrera (four straight years with at least 112 RBI) and Gary Sheffield in the heart of a potent attack. However, doesn't this team look a lot like the Yankees of 2007? This team has huge offensive potential and questions throughout the pitching staff (no, not you, Justin Verlander). I'm looking squarely at off-season acquisition Dontrelle Willis, who has pitched miserably this spring. The introduction of DHs to his workload won't help, and he'll be involved in a number of slugfests. Willis will win 15 games, but his ERA will reside above the 5.00 mark for the second straight year.
4. The Orioles named George Sherrill as their closer, and I'll be interested to watch his transition from the set-up role in Seattle to that of "The Hammer" (seriously, go see Adam Carolla's movie of that title when it hits your area) in Baltimore. Sherrill has closer stuff (11.04 strikeouts per nine innings) and will excel in the role. He'll save 18-20 games for the Orioles before being dealt to a contender seeking to shore up the bullpen for the pennant chase.
5. Josh Hamilton of the Rangers turned heads with his huge spring effort (19 RBI). He was one of the game's best stories last year, and now appears primed for superstardom. Hamilton will bat behind Michael Young, the man with five consecutive 200-hit seasons under his belt, and drive in 100 runs this year in Arlington. He hit 19 home runs in 298 at-bats last year. Hamilton will hit 30 this season.
6. I'm excited to see Kerry Wood back in a prominent role for the Cubs, and I believe that Lou Piniella will be able to harness the full power of his right arm into some strong fantasy totals to start the year. However, I still contend that electrifying set-up man Carlos Marmol will finish the year with more saves than Wood and play a huge role in the Cubs' march toward the playoffs. Wood will need days off to keep him sound, and I suspect that Marmol's performance will earn a long, long look from the skipper.
Will they end the long drought? No, I'm not that bold. I'll take the field.
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| Philadelphia catcher Carlos Ruiz may be a sleeper who can post decent numbers in a hitter-friendly park this season. (Rick Stewart / Getty Images) |
7. While the catcher position continues to be dominated by the big two (Russell Martin and Victor Martinez), we're seeing an influx of talent at the position. I'm not talking about Joe Mauer, Jorge Posada and Brian McCann, we're well aware of their talents. I'm looking down the list at names like Geovany Soto (2007 PCL MVP), Josh Bard (.285 and 51 RBI in 118 games) and Chris Snyder (13 home runs and 47 RBI). The truth is, you will find talent late on draft day or the waiver wire. No, I shan't talk about the recently demoted Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who will be back with a vengeance. I'm stoked about the prospects of Phillies catcher Carlos Ruiz. I'm calling for Ruiz to hit 20 home runs in Citizens Bank Park. He rapped out 29 doubles last season in 115 games last year, a total that portends to a sizable increase in home runs this year.
8. In my pitching projections piece, I projected 16 wins and 202 strikeouts for James Shields of the Rays. Shields is a darkhorse candidate for the AL Cy Young award, and I predict that he'll finish in the top five in voting. Of course, this indicates that I have some faith in the Tampa bullpen. Happily, the Rays have Dan Wheeler at the ready should Troy Percival be forced to miss time.
9. The Giants will have two 40-stolen base players on their roster, outfielder Rajai Davis and infielder Eugenio Velez. San Francisco's baserunners will have the equivalent of the lights along PCH (Pacific Coast Highway in Southern California); they never turn red. This team will need to do anything to generate runs, and that means healthy running totals through the lineup. Davis was impressive in the spring and stole 17 bases in limited duty last year (51 games). Velez stole 14 bases in the spring and could fill a role akin to Bourn's efforts in Philadelphia last season.
10. Barry Bonds will see the field in 2008. I recognize that the Giants have stripped all nods to his existence from the field (except for a small plaque that will mark his record-setting home run), despite the fact that we're still in the allegation area of things. Like the Bob Segar song says: "Turn the Page." I expect that Bonds gets a look from a team in need of some pop around the middle of the season. You're looking at Seattle (a team that could be contending given the sudden susceptibility of the Angels), perhaps the Rays (another draw for the proposed sailboat stadium), and never, ever count out the Yankees regardless of any public statements to the contrary. How about 15 home runs and 50 RBI with a batting average well above .300? There's a leap for you.
I could continue to gush with love for the fantasy prospects of Billy Butler and Wily Mo Peña (I still believe that he'll hit 20 or more home runs) and celebrate Rick Ankiel's power displays in his storybook return to the field. These are stories that I've been telling since we began our previews for fantasy baseball 2008 earlier this year alongside countless others.
Monday's first full slate of games is quite intriguing match-ups. We'll get our first look at Santana as he takes on the Marlins. Roy Oswalt battles defending Cy Young award winner Peavy in San Diego. Sheets takes on Carlos Zambrano in Chicago, and all of our other fantasy aces go to work.
Raise a glass and celebrate. Tell the boss you've got spring fever. I'll even write the doctor's note (that probably wouldn't hold up in my own house).
Welcome back, baseball.
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