Top 10 lessons I learned in Spring Training
I've hit the road to catch games in Arizona. I've watched countless hours of game action in search of the next big thing or a rehabbing bargain (Nick Johnson?). I've scrambled the data and pieced things back together again and again in the rankings game.
It's an imperfect science, to be sure, but it doesn't keep us from trying to crack the code. I feel as though I've taken a trip back in time, when I was forced to the head of the class to speak about my summer adventures. Don't laugh. You all did it it one form or another.
In this entry of my preseason ramblings, I'm listing the 10 things learned, remembered or beaten into my head this spring.
10. Dodgers in an outfield quandary
I've been voting with my drafts, and it's become increasingly clear that Joe Torre and his staff in Los Angeles have a very difficult situation on their hands.
Juan Pierre owns a miserable .192 this spring (14-for-73) with four RBI, although he has swiped six bases. However, he's been crushed in the head-to-head competition with Andre Ethier, who is batting .369 (24-for-65) with six home runs and 15 RBI.
9. Youth is being served
Although a number of the top prospects for 2008 will begin the season in the minor leagues, a quick scan through opening day rosters demonstrates that youth is being served across the majors.
Sure, players such as Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz are still taking their turns on the hill. Perennial sluggers Jeff Kent, Frank Thomas and Ken Griffey, Jr. continue to stride to the plate (albeit with some injury downtime). Check the rosters of the Giants, Royals and the ever-rebuilding A's and Pirates. Look at the rotations of the Yankees and Red Sox.
8. DBTH (Don't Believe the Hype)
No matter how many seasons we've danced in this game, it's awfully difficult to avoid leaping onboard the bandwagon of the latest prospects. We've spent the off-season heaping praise on players such as Colby Rasmus, Evan Longoria, Jarrod "Salty" Saltalamacchia and Homer Bailey. All four players will begin the year in the minor leagues. Now, I fully stand by my belief that these players will make significant contributions to fantasy "bottom" lines before this season ends. However, owners need to seek alternatives along the way. How about the less-hyped Eugenio Velez of the Giants? Velez has now stolen 14 bases this spring.
7. Injured pitchers are maddening
The number of pitchers facing huge injury concerns and season-opening stints on the disabled list is absolutely staggering. We've known about Curt Schilling's lengthy stay on the disabled list, and now Kelvim Escobar (an 18-game winner last year) might be done because of a shoulder injury.
Seriously, they're everywhere. John Smoltz, Randy Johnson, Scott Kazmir, Yovani Gallardo and Josh Beckett head the parade of pitchers on the shelf for the opening week. Countless others have tweaks that could become lingering issues this year.
And, as my man John Halpin wrote in his blog on Thursday morning, can we anticipate a full 180-200 innings from Rich Harden in 2008, or will he break our hearts again? If you're drafting this weekend, there's no question that several owners in your league will be asking themselves that very thing, and that at least one will pose it aloud.
6. The closer carousel never closes down
It may be stopped briefly for maintenance, and the shuffling of players from the inside track to the outside track to draw in the kids (you've got to have the shiniest model showing), but the line is always building.
The Cubs recently named Kerry Wood to the role, pushing Carlos Marmol and Bob Howry to the inside track. George Sherrill won the gig in Baltimore. C.J. Wilson will close in Texas. Brian Wilson earned the role in San Francisco (see, the whole "Surfin' Safari" and carousel theme fits, right? Get it. There are animals on the ... nevermind).
There are players who stand atop the positional rankings and warrant early selection (take Jonathan Papelbon and J.J. Putz), but look at some of the struggles of closers in the spring. Three-time 40-save man Francisco Rodriguez and Detroit closer Todd Jones have been battered this spring, and Brad Lidge and Takashi Saito are hurt. Take your favorite closer early if you must, just be sure to circle back later for two or three others as protection, as we're sure to see new options evolve over time.
5. Spring at-bats will help to slow your heart rate
It's not a cure-all, but it helps. We turned the page to baseball following the thrilling Super Bowl win by the Giants and have been speculating about the health and performance of our heroes. Take, for instance, Albert Pujols's elbow. Pujols remains somewhat of an injury concern, but he's tied for third in the major leagues with 18 RBI this spring (five home runs and a robust .414 batting average).
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| Will Cincinnati rookie starting pitchers Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez be the next Kerry Wood and Mark Prior for Dusty Baker? (Eliot J. Schechter / Getty Images) |
4. Performances in the spring are not necessarily indicative of brilliance or struggles to come
Yes, that's a generally accepted principle, but I'll bet that more than a few fantasy owners are starting to slide some of our top hurlers down a few pegs based on their spring struggles. Take Josh Beckett's injury. It's disconcerting, for sure, but not a deal breaker. What about Jake Peavy and Erik Bedard, the Nos. 2 and No. 3 pitchers on my board.
Peavy struck out 12.33 batters per nine innings this spring while pitching to a bloated 9.39 ERA. Bedard's reputation for being aloof is well-documented, and he seems ill-concerned about his spring scuffles. He's allowed nine home runs with just eight strikeouts in 24 innings of work. I'm not ready to dismiss these stats entirely, but screaming "the sky is falling" (as some might be inclined to do) is ludicrous. They'll be just fine.
3. Dusty Baker has been blessed with another stellar young pitching staff in Cincinnati
Edinson Volquez and Johnny Cueto (I've been hyping him seemingly forever) will occupy the third and fourth spots in the rotation, with Homer Bailey laying in the weeds for a call-up from Triple-A. It's one of the most intriguing stories to watch this year as Baker tries to harness their talent in the confines of Great American Ballpark.
The names "Prior" and "Wood" weigh heavily on owners' minds in fantasy drafts this spring, right or wrong.
2. Trades are a tricky thing
We've seen Johan Santana and Miguel Cabrera dealt this off-season, but Brian Roberts and Joe Crede will begin the 2008 season in Baltimore and Chicago, respectively. We really thought one would come into Chicago, while the other would be moving out.
Jim Hendry couldn't get the deal done to give Alfonso Soriano, Derrek Lee and company another jumpstart at the top of the order (Cubs fans can vent in the comment section below), while Kenny Williams found a slow market for his veteran third baseman. The Roberts deal seemed like a sure thing through the entire off-season.
The inability to trade Crede speaks directly to his history of back injuries. Other general managers, no matter how much they need help at the position (see the Dodgers), want to see Crede play and assess his health. Unfortunately for me and countless fantasy owners, we spent an early pick on Josh Fields, who may not see the field in 2008.
1. The game will go on
To hear many fans and pundits tell the tale, baseball has been irreparably damaged by the ongoing investigations into performance enhancers. I did a mini-tour of spring training, and I'd like to tell them that the game is alive and well.
If it wasn't, would you see a packed stadium of 14,000 for a mid-week afternoon game? Would you see fans embracing the new stars and faces of their team, as I did in Scottsdale when visiting the Giants? Would millions of people still be spending countless hours ranking and re-ranking players and working through trade proposals in the fantasy realm?
No, the game is just fine. There have been scandals and scoundrels in every era of this game, and it just keeps rolling along.
The games are set to begin, and we'll learn new things each day as we work to build championship teams. Look for all of our ponderings, projections and news reports on the pages of FOXSports.com.
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