Mound musings: A's hurt, yet still performing
by David Regan, RotoWire
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AL WEST
Oakland A's
Early count: Seven starters and a 3.18 starter ERA. You can thank Dana Eveland (2.00 ERA) for a large part of that, as well as Rich Harden's 0.80 mark before he predictably hit the DL. Justin Duchscherer had one nice start before hitting the DL himself with a biceps injury, but he's reportedly ready to return April 20, thus bumping Lenny DiNardo from the rotation. The rotation will then be Joe Blanton (4.15 ERA, just nine strikeouts in 26 innings), Eveland, Greg Smith, Duchscherer and Chad Gaudin, though Gaudin could get the boot if his struggles continue.
Top (near) MLB-ready pitching prospect: Gio Gonzalez struck out 185 in 150 innings last year in Double-A and has nine so far in eight Triple-A innings in 2008. Teammate Dan Meyer is off to a slow start, so Gonzalez is probably next in line.
Los Angeles Angels
Interesting stat-line: Jon Garland's two strikeouts in 18 innings. He's never been a big strikeout guy, but that's a really extreme K/9 (2.0). Thanks to Joe Saunders (2-0, 1.27) and Ervin Santana, the rotation's holding together fairly well in the absence of the team's top two starters, John Lackey (elbow) and Kelvim Escobar (shoulder). Lackey hopes to return in early May, while Escobar is TBD (I'm not optimistic he'll contribute a single inning this year). Saunders and Santana have solidified their rotation spots, while Dustin Moseley (7.36 ERA) is merely a placeholder for Lackey.
Top (near) MLB-ready pitching prospect: Nick Adenhart (0.82 ERA in two Triple-A outings) could replace Moseley in the near future should Moseley's struggles continue.
Seattle Mariners
Felix Hernandez looks like an ace, while Jarrod Washburn and Carlos Silva have been fine, but I'm worried about Erik Bedard. We know he's yet to reach 200 innings in a season, and he's already hurt (hip inflammation). He's also been far from dominant (10:8 K:BB in 11 innings) this season. The Mariners, of course, are saying the injury isn't serious, but it's serious enough to land him on the disabled list, and it's serious enough for owners who paid upwards of $30 for his services. He hopes to return to the mound April 24. R.A. Dickey will start for him on Friday. Cha Seung Baek, he of the 5.13 career ERA, also could figure into the mix if Bedard's out longer than hoped.
Top (near) MLB-ready pitching prospect: There's really nobody noteworthy at the upper levels. Ryan Feieraband would probably get the call from Triple-A if another starter is needed. Phillippe Aumont, the team's top pick in 2007, is the organization's top pitching prospect, but he's in Low-A.
Texas Rangers
Despite the efforts of Jason Jennings (7.45 ERA) to drag it south, the Ranger starters' ERA is surprisingly strong at 3.19. Kevin Millwood's been fine (1.29 ERA despite a 11:9 K:BB), somewhat living up to his $60 million contract. Vicente Padilla's actually healthy, and when that happens, he's solid. Even Kason Gabbard's held his own with a 2.13 ERA, despite a 5:4 K:BB in 12.2 innings. Worse case, he's at least earned an extended look, though clearly that ERA is due for a correction. Luis Mendoza allowed just one earned run in five innings in his debut, but he's not really worth owning (1:3 K:BB, and three unearned runs allowed - translation: he was lucky). Jennings' velocity is down, and he's probably due for a DL stint soon, making him droppable. I'd spot-start Millwood, Padilla and, in AL-only leagues, Gabbard, but as usual, Texas isn't exactly a hotbed of fantasy starting pitching.
Top (near) MLB-ready pitching prospect: Eric Hurley has a 7.07 ERA in two Triple-A starts, but his 17 strikeouts in 14 innings highlight his upside. He's worth a look once he turns things around and gets the call.
AL CENTRAL
Cleveland Indians
Keeping in mind sample size, Cliff Lee through two starts looks like the pitcher who went 18-5 a couple years ago. His 12:1 K:BB has me fairly optimistic. Jake Westbrook looks like a solid No. 3 with a 2.76 ERA, but that's where the good news ends. C.C. Sabathia's woes are well-documented, though I'm not too worried quite yet. He might even represent a buy-low opportunity. Fausto Carmona believes mechanical issues are to blame for an Ankiel-like 8:17 K:BB, and since it's early, we'll believe him. His stuff is still there from what I've seen. Paul Byrd should be benched in all leagues until he turns things around, which he may have on Tuesday.
Top (near) MLB-ready pitching prospect: Adam Miller's working his way back from a blister problem in extended spring training, with no timetable given. He's the only guy for this year worth monitoring, as Jeremy Sowers and Aaron Laffey are merely filler.
Kansas City Royals
Greinke/Bannister/Meche actually looks like a solid top of the rotation. Beyond that, Brett Tomko and John Bale are battling to remain in the rotation until Luke Hochevar is ready.
Top (near) MLB-ready pitching prospect: Hochevar will probably be ready by May or June. By then, figure that either Tomko or Bale (maybe both) will have pitched poorly enough to make room.
Detroit Tigers
1-7, 6.31: Those are the numbers for your Tigers starters in the early going. As of Tuesday, Jeremy Bonderman was the only starter under 6.52, and he's at 4.58 with an ugly 8:8 K:BB, so there's nothing to brag about there. I'm still bullish on Justin Verlander until I hear a reason why I shouldn't be (i.e. an arm injury), but not so bullish on Dontrelle Willis (0:9 K:BB) or any other starter. I'm still fairly optimistic on Bonderman, but we really need to see that command return quickly.
Top (near) MLB-ready pitching prospect: Armando Galarraga will take a couple turns in the rotation for the injured Willis (knee), but the prospect really worth watching is Virgil Vasquez, off to a nice start in Triple-A (2.53 ERA, 14:2 K:BB). Vasquez could also replace Nate Robertson if Robertson's back injury leads to a DL stint. Rick Porcello, by far the team's top prospect, is probably a couple years away.
Minnesota Twins
Francisco Liriano's slow start isn't a surprise. Tommy John survivors can't be expected to come in and deal right away. He might not be fully up to speed until July or even 2009. Kevin Slowey's biceps injury opened the door for Nick Blackburn to remain in the rotation upon Liriano's return, though Blackburn deserves to stay regardless, considering his 2.25 ERA through two starts. His Triple-A strikeout rate (4.6 K/9) should evoke some concern, but he also throws strikes and could survive as a No. 5. I'm still not buying Livan Hernandez at 3-0, 2.57, and I doubt you are either. Once Slowey's ready later this month, he could be ticketed for Triple-A, depending on how Blackburn's throwing.
Top (near) MLB-ready pitching prospect: The Twins are loaded, but probably either Kevin Mulvey or Philip Humber will get the next shot. Mulvey's pitching better now, but this could go either way.
Chicago White Sox
Let's see how Gavin Floyd fares against teams other than the Tigers, but so far so good. At least he's secured a spot for the time being. Remember, this guy was once the draft's No. 4 overall pick, so perhaps the ace-level talent is just now developing. As for the rest of the rotation, Javier Vazquez is still underrated. I'm optimistic on John Danks, who had a nice spring and has had two solid starts this year. Jose Contreras will remain a AL-only spot starter, and as for Mark Buehrle, I'm worried that spring shoulder soreness won't allow him to hit 30 starts for the first time in his career.
Top (near) MLB-ready pitching prospect: Lance Broadway's off to a nice start in Triple-A (0.64 ERA in two starts) and could be a No. 3 in time. He'll get the first call-up this year.
AL EAST
Toronto Blue Jays
A.J. Burnett's the concern here. It's not so much the 6.61 ERA as much as the 3.9 K/9 through three starts. Where is the dominant Burnett we're accustomed to when healthy? The rest of the rotation's been solid, particularly budding ace Shaun Marcum (20:5 K:BB in 20.2 innings). Even Jesse Litsch has won his first two starts.
Top (near) MLB-ready pitching prospect: David Purcey hasn't lived up to his first-round draft position, but so far so good in 2008. He's throwing to a 1.50 ERA and 14 strikeouts in 12 innings. He could replace weak-link Litsch at some point or Burnett when he gets hurt.
Baltimore Orioles
It's pretty much advisable to say away from anyone not named Jeremy Guthrie here, and even he isn't an every week starter in some leagues. The numbers are pretty ugly for the Baltimore starters: 4.95 ERA, 38:36 K:BB. I'm done rostering Daniel Cabrera, hoping he suddenly finds some command. And while I like Adam Loewen's upside, he's only worth owning in long-term keeper/dynasty leagues.
Top (near) MLB-ready pitching prospect: Garrett Olson looks to be next in line for a call-up, as he's off to a nice start in Triple-A (0.90 ERA, 11:6 K:BB in 10 innings). Radhames Liz has the most fantasy upside of the Orioles' upper-level minor league pitchers, but he's off to a rough start and is far from polished.
Tampa Bay Rays
A lot of FAAB money was thrown Edwin Jackson's way this week, but even though he's started well this year, don't get carried away and think he's suddenly developed into the ace he was projected to be with the Dodgers. At minimum, he's secured his rotation spot, but caution is advised. Scott Kazmir (elbow) and Matt Garza (nerve) are both probably a couple weeks out, at which time manager Joe Maddon could have a dilemma. Expect Jason Hammel to get demoted, but if Jeff Niemann's big league debut (six innings, one run) is repeatable, he could bump Andy Sonnanstine (8.80 ERA) to middle relief. In fact, if Sonnanstine has another outing like Monday, (seven runs in 3.1 innings), he could lose his spot to J.P. Howell.
Top (near) MLB-ready pitching prospect: Wade Davis is a little more polished than Jacob McGee and would likely get the call should even more pitching be needed later this year. David Price (elbow) is out until mid-May and might have had his big league debut pushed to 2009 as a result, but he's the one to own in keeper leagues.
Boston Red Sox
A 23:15 K:BB in 23 1/3 innings for Daisuke Matsuzaka is a little concerning. Actually, a lot of the Sox hurlers are walking too many, including Jon Lester (7:10 K:BB) and Tim Wakefield (13:12 K:BB). Still, pitching probably isn't going to be an issue. Josh Beckett (back) looked much better in his last start than in his season debut. Curt Schilling (shoulder) could be back in July or August, but it's hard to count on much there this year. If the Sox need another starter later this year, the uninspiring candidates in Triple-A include Devern Hansack and David Pauley.
Top (near) MLB-ready pitching prospect: Justin Masterson is the team's top pitching prospect, and he's off to a good start in Double-A. Masterson has a 10:0 K:BB early and could be ready by midseason.
New York Yankees
Good to see Ian Kennedy rebound on Monday. You had to figure the Yankees' young starters would struggle at times, and indeed Philip Hughes has one good start, two poor ones and a 9:8 K:BB. I still like Hughes quite a bit this year, however. Maybe he's even a buy-low candidate now that the hype has died down. Mike Mussina's been OK, but with just six strikeouts in 17 1/3 innings and a .259 BABIP, he's playing with fire. Still, no one is in danger of losing his job.
Top (near) MLB-ready pitching prospect: Alan Horne's the closest to contributing, but he left his last start after two innings with a biceps injury, and we're unsure of his status. Should the Yankees need to dip into the minors, it would likely be either Kei Igawa or Darrell Rasner, both with sub-1.00 ERAs in Triple-A.
Next week, we'll take a look at the senior circuit rotations.
Article first appeared 4/16/08
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