Halpin' Hand: Fast Starters
I wonder the same thing, so let's go through some guys and see if we can figure out whether they'll make this season's breakout lists, or just the fizzle out lists.
One note to pre-empt any snarky comments: Remember not to take everything here literally. If I say that Carlos Peña's fast start is for real, it doesn't mean I think he'll hit the 70 homers he's currently on pace for. Sixty-five, maybe, but definitely not 70.
Gabe Kapler, OF Brewers
You have to like a guy who gets hurt running into a wall during batting practice, like Kapler did earlier this week. You also have to like him for batting .423 with four home runs, 11 RBI and 11 runs in his first 12 games, when all he was supposed to be doing was keeping the platoon half of a seat warm until Mike Cameron's late April return from a substance-related suspension.
I doubt many of you are getting too excited about Kapler, but if you are, remember that last year at this time he was in his first year of retirement, managing the Greenville (S.C.) Drive in the South Atlantic League. From 2002-06, he hit a total of 15 home runs. If you own Kapler, I guarantee you'll waive him by Memorial Day, and that's only if you're really stubborn.
Nate McLouth, OF, Pirates
McLouth is making the Pirates look smart for giving him their center field job, batting .391 with two homers, two steals, 12 runs and 14 RBI so far. So, now he's a fantasy star? Actually, yes.
Nate the Great — I made that up myself — is a legitimate power-speed threat. He's more Eric Byrnes than Carlos Beltran, but in fantasy terms that's nothing to be ashamed of. McLouth hit 13 home runs, stole 22 bases and scored 62 runs last season, and that was in only 329 at-bats. He was always speedy in the minors, and his power seems to be developing. There's no reason why McLouth can't hit 15 home runs and steal 30 bases as the Pirates' everyday center fielder.
Brian Bannister, SP, Royals
OK, so Bannister's 3-0 with a 0.86 ERA. And he was a respectable 12-9 with a 3.87 ERA and 1.21 WHIP last season. And he's a brilliant former Academic All-American from USC who gets batters out because he outsmarts them. I'm still not buying the whole thing, mainly because he doesn't strike out enough people. Bannister can be an OK pitcher, but if you're expecting him to be more than a fourth or fifth starter on your mixed league team, you're kidding yourself.
Joe Saunders, SP, Angels
Saunders is 2-0 with a 1.27 ERA in three starts, and people are thinking things like, "Hey, the Angels have a pretty good pitching prospect here." Saunders isn't really a prospect — he'll turn 27 in June. He also had a 5.12 ERA at Triple-A Salt Lake last season. With John Lackey out until May, and Kelvim Escobar probably done for the year, Saunders is going to get his chance to sink or swim. I think he might tread water, but that's about it.
Joe Crede, 3B, White Sox
Sure, why not. Crede's batting .312 with four homers and 16 RBI so far. The big questions about him entering the season were "Is he healthy?" and "Where will he get traded?" Well, he seems to have recovered just fine from his back surgery, and he's going to start whether he stays with the White Sox or goes elsewhere. Crede averaged 24 home runs from 2004-06, and that sounds about right for this season. The batting average, unfortunately, will probably be closer to his career mark of .259.
Edwin Jackson, SP, Rays
My dad owns a team in my AL keeper league. Every year, he gets his hands on a handful of low-priced "potential" pitchers in August and September, spends the winter falling in love with them and decides to keep them all, which doesn't leave him with many roster spots for pitchers on whom he can rely. Then, when June rolls around, he's amazed that his ERA is something like 5.07. It's like seeing a ROAD CLOSED sign a mile away, telling the driver multiple times to slow down, and then watching him crash through the barrier like he's Bo Duke driving the General Lee.
This year, Dad used four of his nine pitching spots on Daniel Cabrera, Jackson, Adam Miller and Kevin Slowey. Jackson's the one he's excited about right now, and I can see why: He's only 24, has terrific stuff and allowed one run in his first 14 innings this season. The problem, as always, is his control. Since getting promoted to Triple-A for the first time in 2004, Jackson has consistently given out more free passes than the doorman at a Kevin Federline club appearance. In three starts so far this year, the count is 10 walks in 19 innings. This is not going to end well for my dad.
Carlos Peña, 1B, Rays
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| Carlos Peña will hit plenty of homers this season, but will probably also strike out often along the way. (J. Meric / Getty Images) |
Through Tuesday, Peña was batting .191 with a major-league leading six home runs, along with 13 RBI. His average will certainly improve, but he struck out 142 times last season and whiffed 19 times in his first 51 at-bats this year, and low-contact hitters like Peña don't often have good BAs. As for the power? It's real. I had Peña figured for about 30 homers, but now I'm thinking he can hit 40 again. He's a legitimate slugger.
Ryan Dempster, SP, Cubs
The Cubs took Dempster out of the bullpen, put him in the rotation, and — eureka! — he's 2-0 with a 2.37 ERA in three starts. He's also 30 years old, has a 4.79 career ERA and hasn't started more than 20 games since 2001. Oh, and he walks people like he's an older version of Edwin Jackson. Stay away.
Cliff Lee, SP, Indians
Since 2005, Lee's ERA has gone from 3.79 to 4.40 to 6.29. Last year, he allowed 17 home runs in 97 1/3 innings. The Indians would have been better off bringing Len Barker out of retirement and letting him pitch every fifth day. You don't remember Barker? He didn't have a great career, but on May 15, 1981, he tossed a perfect game for the Tribe against the Blue Jays and is one of only 17 pitchers in major league history to do that. See, I'm not just a fantasy geek!
Back to Lee, whose gaudy stats (2-0, 0.61 ERA) are something I'm tempted to dismiss as a two-week fluke. However, he's got 12 strikeouts and just one walk in 14 2/3 innings, and that's a terrific ratio. Additionally, I know it's early, but Lee has a history of being a flyball pitcher, and so far he's induced more groundouts than flyouts. Sure, the margin is a slim 18-17, but it's a margin, right? Lee can be a decent pitcher again, and he's on a team that can help him get wins. I'm not sure exactly why I just talked myself into picking up Lee, but I'm going to do it.
Mark Reynolds and Justin Upton, Diamondbacks
Sorry, but I've reached my monthly word quota on both of these guys. You know where I stand, right?
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