Draft prospects: Who's underrated?
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- No, 1 pick: Boom or bust
- NFL Draft Q&A: Colt Brennan
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I'm not suggesting all of these guys should be first-rounders, but what I am saying is they may have more of a chance at becoming fantasy contributors than most experts give them.
Quarterback
Brennan came from one of those most pass-happy college football programs in the NCAA. He passed the ball on almost every down, and since handing the ball off isn't a big art, it stands to reason he should be able to make any throw his NFL coach wants.
I still stand by that. Granted, the run-and-shoot offense is built around the quarterback getting rid of the ball very quickly, and he'll need to make some adjustments at the NFL level. He'll have to learn to make reads at the pro level, but so has every other incoming quarterback.
I doubt Brennan starts right away, but I could definitely see him running an offense like Indianapolis' some day (and God knows they could use a capable backup quarterback: the talent difference from Peyton Manning to Jim Sorgi may be the sharpest No. 1 to No. 2 dropoff in the history of the league. I'm serious).
The good news though is Woodson improved every single important category in each of his four years on the field: completions, attempts, passing yards, touchdown passes and completion percentage. Every one of those stats went up each year, which is not easy to accomlish. It all culminated in 3,709 yards and 40 touchdown passes in 2007 (and in a not-so-easy SEC conference, I might add).
But there's one burning question which always pops up about quarterbacks like Dixon, and I'm sure you already know what it is: can he sit back and pass from the pocket, or is he just an option quarterback? No team in the NFL runs the spread option, so does the answer have to be a resounding 'yes' if you're hoping to find fantasy value with him?
Not really.
I think Dixon's career will unfold a lot like that of Vick's on the field. Whenever he starts regularly, expect him to have games where he throws for 160 yards, but rushes for 100 and a touchdown. Dixon's got a kind of bizarre throwing motion: he almost brings the ball down to his shoulder and pushes it downfield instead of winding back and following through. But he's 6-foot-4 and extremely elusive. No one caught Vick in his prime, and I'm expecting the same here.
Running back
A lot about Rice's game is similar to that of Mendenhall's: short and stocky, yet powerful and even fast. Rice ran a respectable 4.40 dash and is probably second-round material at this point, but his fantasy status is hard to predict since he could literally land anywhere in the draft.
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| The popularity of the two-back system in the NFL may increase Mike Hart's chances of making a fantasy impact. (Doug Benc / Getty Images) |
Hart will almost certainly start his career as a second back, but with such a shift around the league toward using a two-back system, he's going to be a solid and reliable pickup for someone.
Torain struggled with injuries at ASU, but he can be a productive runner who is something of a dual-threat out of the backfield (he had 100 receiving yards and two touchdowns on only seven catches last year). Some projections have him not even getting drafted, but he'll wind up on a roster somewhere, and you may even see him catch on somewhere as a third-down back. Stay tuned.
Wide receiver/Tight end
Hardy scored 36 touchdowns in three seasons at Indiana, which averages out to roughly one per game in that span. If he lasts past the second round, some team is going to land themselves a solid prospect who shouldn't take too long to get acclimated to the NFL.
Does anyone remember watching Ben Roethlisberger in college? He wasn't exactly light on his feet, but he still had a knack for eluding onrushers and making plays. Nelson fits the same mold. He's 6-foot-3 and 217 pounds and isn't super quick, but what makes him effective is his talent for making defenders miss their initial attempt at contact after he catches the ball. He's also a good punt returner, so he knows how to make things happen in the open field.
Speaking of that, he ran a 4.68 40 at the combine, which isn't spectacular, but really, how many tight ends in the league have blazing speed? Davis also began his college career as a wide receiver, so his speed shouldn't be an issue.
Davis is about one inch shorter and 10 pounds lighter than Antonio Gates. Both of them attacked defenses the same way, and depending on where Davis lands, he could be a decent fantasy asset by the end of his first season.
Next, I'll talk about the guys who are rated too highly.



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