Draft prospects: Overrated

by John Juhasz

John is an editor for the FOXSports.com fantasy group. Check out his blog and please don't be shy when leaving questions or comments.


Updated: April 24, 2008, 5:52 PM EST Comment

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Last week, I talked about a few guys who I felt were underrated heading into the draft.

Now it's time to talk about the guys who may be getting a little too much hype. I don't take a great deal of delight in bashing players though, so I'll keep this list to a minimum.

Quarterback

  • Matt Ryan, Boston College — Every time I see this guy, I can't help but to be reminded of Joe Kane in The Program; Ryan plays the same way, dresses in the same uniform and even looks like Kane. I'll have to ask someone to research whether he liked to jump canyons on a motorcycle with Kristy Swanson hanging on.

    Ryan is roughly 6-foot-4 and 230 pounds, which is pretty close to ideal size for a quarterback. The main positive is he did improve his total passing yardage and touchdown passes in each of his four seasons at B.C. He finished 2007 with 4,507 yards and 31 scores.

    Now for the bad news. What's really alarming about Ryan is the whopping 19 interceptions he threw in his senior season (14 games played). That kind of inconsistency makes most scouts see red flags the size of B.C.'s campus.

    Ryan is not really a franchise quarterback, even though he'll probably go in the top 10 of the draft. The only reason he'll go that high is because this isn't a great quarterback class (at least for cornerstone players). Had Ryan come out last year, I'm not sure he would have even been a first-rounder, let alone a top-10 choice.

    Ryan doesn't have an explosive arm nor is he a very mobile quarterback. That combination could be trouble against speedy NFL defensive ends who will chase him down and force him into mistakes. I'm not suggesting he's the second coming of Tim Couch or Akili Smith, but those expecting him to become a top talent at the position may be in for a disappointment. You don't have to worry about it right now from a fantasy perspective though; I really doubt Ryan plays much in his first year, regardless of who drafts him.

  • Chad Henne, Michigan — Trust me on this one. I spent four years watching this guy and saw just about every game in which he participated. I came away unimpressed.

    Sure, he holds a lot of Michigan passing records. But just about any other college quarterback would have a good shot at the same thing if he started four straight seasons and avoided injury. Henne got rattled off his game too easily, too often.

    Henne's highest totals in passing yardage (2,743) and touchdown passes (25) came in his freshman season! Can you think of another four-year quarterback who posted his best numbers in his first campaign? Neither can I.

    Running back

  • Chris Johnson, East Carolina — What probably impressed scouts the most was Johnson's blazing speed at the combine: he posted a historically good 4.24 40-yard dash.

    Johnson's problem is he's really, really, REALLY small (5-foot-11 and 197 pounds). He can try to bulk up in the weight room all he wants, but he's never really going to become an every-down back in the NFL. He finally posted some strong stats in 2007, but consider the opposition.

    Johnson is projected as a second-rounder by some pundits, but he'll probably become a third-down back at best in the offense. He also split quite a bit of time between running back and wide receiver, so maybe he could become a Devin Hester type of player and offer someone solid value on special teams.

    Wide receiver/Tight end

  • Limas Sweed, Texas — This may be the first year in a while where we only see one receiver taken in the first round of the Draft. Sweed is probably the second-best receiver in this draft behind Devin Thomas, and if Sweed is somewhat overrated, then what does that say about this whole class of wideouts?

    Sweed had a tremendous 2006 when he caught 46 passes and had 12 scores with his 801 receiving yards. A wrist injury then limited his production in 2007; he only had three touchdowns and 306 receiving yards in six games as a senior. He's got a decent frame (6-foot-4, 215 pounds) and can make plays, but he's not really a strong or physical receiver who can push his way through traffic. He was a No. 1 at Texas, but I don't think he'll become much more than a No. 2 in the pros.

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