Fantasy Draft 2008: Top 15 quarterbacks
Well, let's cast aside those thoughts and discussions for a moment and start looking ahead to that most glorious of summer institutions. That's right. Let's initiate our prep work for the 2008 fantasy football draft season.
In the first of what will be many, many entries designed to aid your draft-day decision-making process, I'm reviewing my top 15 fantasy quarterbacks. The first three entries are no-brainers. I elaborate solely for the purpose of helping you to dominate break room conversations. After that, it gets interesting in a hurry.
1. Tom Brady, New England
I won't belabor the point. Brady's actually in the mix for the No. 1 overall selection. He's been remarkably durable, having started every game in the past six years (although I still wonder how hurt he may have been during the playoff run). Teaming with Randy Moss and breakout star Wes Welker, Brady set the single-season record with 50 touchdowns. Sure, we knew that. However, his brilliant 2007 season also marked the sixth straight season in which he finished in the top six in touchdown passes. He's also passed for at least 3,500 yards in each year he's been a starter (top 10 in each season). As I said following Peyton Manning's ridiculous 2004 season, I don't expect to see Brady repeat this absurd level of performance, but his durability, touch and accuracy (63 percent career completion rate) put him at the head of the pack. Did I mention he's thrown 14 or fewer interceptions in each season (eight last year)? He protects the ball and lives to see another play.
2. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis
Lost in the jaw-dropping season turned in by Brady and the ascent of Tony Romo in "Big D" was the fact that Manning once again crossed the 30-touchdown barrier. Granted, he'd won his Super Bowl the year before, so writers and network analysts had moved on to the next story. Think about it. Manning played most of the year without longtime tag-team partner Marvin Harrison and had his usual sit-down in Week 17. He topped 200 passing yards in 13 of the 15 games he played and was shutout once (Kansas City in Week 11). Manning's the picture of durability in this league, now that No. 4 in Green Bay has hung up his cleats for the time being, as he's appeared in every game since entering the NFL. He's passed for at least 3,700 yards in each of his 10 NFL seasons, topping 4,000 yards on eight occasions while averaging 30.6 passing touchdowns. He's never thrown fewer than 26 touchdown passes. The Colts' decision to delay their selection of a wide receiver until the end of the draft indicates that Harrison will be completely recovered from his knee injury and rejoin Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark and Anthony Gonzalez as a fearsome quartet. Don't worry. You won't see a repeat of his dismal six-interception performance against San Diego.
3. Tony Romo, Dallas
There is perhaps no player more divisive at the quarterback position than Romo. His reputation as a gunslinger brings him endless praise when T.O. is dancing in the end zone (he threw 36 touchdown passes in 2007) and derision when the ball flies into the arms of a waiting cornerback (he threw 19 interceptions). You take the good. You take the bad. The good wins out in a landslide, of course. Romo passed for 300 or more yards on seven occasions last year (narrowly missing an eighth) and threw multiple touchdown passes in 12 games. Terrell Owens, Jason Witten and rising star Patrick Crayton are back for an encore. The team failed to consummate a deal to bring in another receiver, so they'll need contributions from some combination of former star Terry Glenn and youngsters Miles Austin, Isaiah Stanbeck and Sam Hurd. I like Hurd as a sleeper in the mix, but we'll get back to that at a later date.
4. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh
As expected, Roethlisberger rebounded brilliantly from his subpar, injury-riddled 2006 season. Big Ben topped 3,000 passing yards for the second straight year and nearly doubled his touchdown output from 2006 with 32. More importantly, he was infinitely more efficient and cut his interception total in half. He threw at least one touchdown pass in 15 games and was only shutout in the ridiculous monsoon game against the Dolphins (perhaps the strangest three hours of sports viewing ever). He stands tall in the pocket and delivers a pretty ball downfield when given time to throw. Obviously, the fact that he's been sacked 93 times in the past two years is disconcerting to say the least. That's my one area of concern with him this year. Can he withstand another season of hits piling up? If he can stay upright, he has ample weapons to whom he can distribute the ball? Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes are one of the league's top 1-2 punches. Nate Washington can fly down the sideline. Heath Miller and Matt Spaeth own the middle of the field. And then there's Limas Sweed, a 6-foot-4 monster from Texas, who joins the group as the big target to answer Roethlisberger's prayers.
5. Drew Brees, New Orleans
Despite the fact Brees had only one true receiver threat in Marques Colston, he still topped 4,400 passing yards for the second straight year. In fact, he's also averaged 26.25 passing touchdowns during his past four seasons between San Diego and New Orleans. He spreads the ball around well and makes good use of safety valves Eric Johnson and Reggie Bush. He's a guy who takes full advantage of the opportunities afforded by his offensive line and gets the ball out. That's a key point to his success. He's absorbed only 34 sacks total in his past two years. The fact that the Saints didn't land a receiver during the off-season to run opposite Colston, which indicates that Sean Payton believes Lance Moore and last season's top pick, Robert Meachem (sleeper off his knee injury?), will help keep Brees and company traversing downfield. Of course, the return of a healthy Deuce McAllister as a battering ram won't hurt. The names in the receiving corps might not overwhelm you, but Brees continues to pile up numbers.
6. Derek Anderson, Cleveland
Perhaps nobody made a bigger splash on the game in 2007 than Anderson. He took over for Charlie Frye (who was dealt to Seattle) and didn't look back, helping to elevate Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow, Jr. into the position elite. The selection of Joe Thomas in the first round of the 2007 draft gave the offensive line an identity and afforded Anderson the opportunity to shine. The Browns did well to address defensive issues during the most recent draft, and they quietly added Donte' Stallworth to the receiving corps. Stallworth racked up 697 yards and three scores as a member of the vaunted New England attack. His acquisition, along with Winslow stretching the field down the middle, will allow Anderson to remain near the top of the heap this season. Weather is certainly a concern toward the end of the season, as the Browns relied heavily on Jamal Lewis to pound the rock instead of flinging it with great regularity. It just doesn't matter when you can play jump ball with Winslow and Edwards, so touchdowns will continue to pile up for Anderson.
7. Carson Palmer, Cincinnati
It took quite some time to determine precisely where to place Palmer on this list. Ultimately, the depth of the receiving corps in Cleveland trumps what may become a summer soap opera in Cincinnati. He might face the beginning of the season without outspoken wideout Chad Johnson, while breaking in a bevy of young receivers alongside T.J. Houshmandzadeh. Remember, troubled receiver Chris Henry's already received his walking papers. Palmer's averaged 4,000 passing yards and 28.7 touchdowns the past three seasons. I expect him to rank among the yardage leaders once again, but I'm fearful that communication issues with his new receivers could send his turnover rate higher.
8. Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle
With the running game sputtering, Mike Holmgren put the onus on Hasselbeck's right arm. He responded by establishing new career marks with 28 touchdown passes and 3,966 passing yards. He threw multiple touchdown passes in 10 contests and was shut out just once. He also took better care of the ball, throwing 12 interceptions in 16 games. Seattle shook up their backfield by releasing Shaun Alexander and replacing him with the combination of T.J. Duckett and Julius Jones. The offensive line played better down the stretch, so there's hope the Seahawks will be able to produce a balanced offense. The loss of receiver D.J. Hackett takes away one of the more explosive options from the passing game, so the team will need Nate Burleson to repeat his strong 2007 season (nine touchdowns) alongside Deion Branch (returning from a knee injury) and for tight end John Carlson to contribute immediately if Hasselbeck is to stand tall among quarterbacks. His knowledge of Holmgren's system and an ability to rely on the running game will put Hasselbeck in a position to succeed.
9. David Garrard, Jacksonville
Garrard finally received the opportunity to start for the Jaguars, and he didn't disappoint. He started the season efficiently, but later became a fantasy stud down the stretch. During the six-week stretch from Week 11 to Week 16, he threw 12 touchdown passes and committed just four turnovers. The only game in which he was shut out of the end zone was the Week 7 game against Indianapolis, a game he left because of injury (he missed his next three games). He averaged 1.64 touchdown passes and 221.5 passing yards in the 11 games he completed. The Jaguars did well to improve the receiving corps this off-season, adding Jerry Porter from the Raiders (could Garrard make him a star once again?) and speedster Troy Williamson from Minnesota (can he improve his catching ability to match his speed?) to a cast that includes solid veteran Dennis Northcutt, Matt Jones and red zone monster Reggie Williams. I'll be interested to see if Jones gets back into the mix. Regardless, Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor will push the ball downfield, and the ultra-efficient Garrard will pick his spots.
10. Eli Manning, New York Giants
Manning stepped out of his brother's shadow with a phenomenal playoff run to upend the Patriots in the Super Bowl last year. He limited his mistakes, relied on his running game and defense to set up field position and then made the most of his chances. The trick for him now is to take his postseason efficiency into the 2008 regular season. He's produced two top-five touchdown seasons the past three years (narrowly missing the mark with 23 touchdowns in 2007), but he's also ranked inside the top five in the interception column (20 in 2007). Additionally, he's ranked in the top 10 in pass attempts in each of the past three seasons. The reigning Super Bowl champs made one of the best moves of the draft by retaining tight end Jeremy Shockey. When healthy, he continues to offer Manning a huge target downfield. Plaxico Burress, when focused, is a true playmaker who obliterates the opposition in the red zone. "Heady" David Tyree will be counted upon to build on his Super Bowl-clinching grab, and the team expects huge contributions from Sinorice Moss and Steve Smith this season. Add playoff hero Kevin Boss to the mix and you've got enough weaponry for Manning to rank among the top quarterbacks this year. As always, it comes down to execution.
11. Jake Delhomme, Carolina
I'm obviously optimistic for a big-time return to the field by Delhomme, and right now it appears his rehab efforts are on track. Additionally, the team added help for him in the draft with running back Jonathan Stewart and tackle Jeff Otah. As such, I slide him into the No. 11 slot in my first glance at the quarterback position. He opened the season with three consecutive multi-touchdown games before sustaining the elbow injury, and his timing with Steve Smith has always been impeccable. Veteran Muhsin Muhammad returns to the scene of his greatest year (as a top option for Delhomme in 2004, the second of Jake's three straight 3,000-yard seasons). The team also added longtime fantasy favorite D.J. Hackett. The weapons are there for Delhomme to excel if he can avoid the injuries of the past.
12. Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia
McNabb's durability is certainly a concern as we look down the road toward training camp 2008. He's missed 15 games during the past three years. He played well in 14 starts last year (13 that he finished), averaging 253 passing yards per game with 19 touchdowns (Brian Westbrook took care of many other possessions himself). He threw only seven interceptions, but also lost five of his nine fumbles and took the third-most sacks in the game (44). The receiving corps is led by Reggie Brown and Kevin Curtis, who offer explosive options downfield. In order for McNabb to return to the elite at the position, he needs a full season of health from tight end L.J. Smith (hurt most of 2007) and a bigger contribution from the combination of Hank Baskett and Jason Avant. He slides to 12th on my rankings list based on concerns about his health.
13. Jay Cutler, Denver
Cutler was sacked 27 times last season, eighth among NFL quarterbacks. Enter Ryan Clady from Boise State to take up residence at tackle. His presence should help Cutler to stand back in the pocket and make more plays downfield. It should also help to quell his fumble problems (he fumbled 11 times last year and lost four). He ranked 10th in passing yardage at 3,497 yards including 12 games with at least 200 passing yards. The off-season injury to stud receiver Brandon Marshall should heal in time for training camp, and I don't believe any of the words put out in the media from Cutler will hurt their connection. Brandon Stokley remains in the slot, but the team is banking on big returns from off-season acquisitions Samie Parker and Keary Colbert. Colbert's battled injuries since his breakout rookie season in 2004, but Parker's been plagued by inconsistent play while in Kansas City. I can say this: he has the ability to stretch the field and make full use of Cutler's big arm.
14. Marc Bulger, St. Louis
The 2007 season was a forgettable one for Bulger and the Rams offense. He appeared in 12 games and threw 11 touchdowns against 15 interceptions. He absorbed a frightening total of 37 sacks during his time on the field and found himself under duress on most passing downs. For all of the excitement of the Rams attack, he's ranked in the top 10 in touchdown passes only once in four years and has missed significant time with injuries. The Rams return ultra-productive receiver Torry Holt, who still caught 93 balls, including seven touchdowns last year. The next most productive returning wide receiver is Drew Bennett, who caught 33 passes and three touchdowns. The team will need Bennett and some combination of Reche Caldwell and Brandon Williams (former third-round pick of the 49ers) to step up to replace veteran Isaac Bruce, who's off to San Francisco. The presence of Holt keeps Bulger on this list, but he carries significant risk.
15. Jon Kitna, Detroit
"Mad Scientist" Mike Martz took his game to San Francisco and the team selected bruiser Kevin Smith for the backfield, two moves indicating there might be a more balanced attack in the offing for the Lions. That balance could help Kitna, who's averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game during the past two years. The outcome of each game was largely dependent on his right shoulder, for better or worse. His 2007 season started well, as he threw multiple touchdown passes in three of his first four games. Alas, fantasy owners and Lions fans watched his fast start flame out quickly, as he would throw only 10 more touchdowns against 14 interceptions during the final 12 games. The interceptions are one part of the tale (42 in the past two years), but he sometimes fails to make a decision and eats the ball. He's taken a staggering total of 114 sacks in the past two years. The addition of tackle Gosder Chelirus is a step in the right direction, but it's not enough. Additionally, it's entirely possible 2007 draft pick Drew Stanton rises up to challenge for the job, but I suspect Kitna wins out. He certainly has options available to him in Roy Williams (assuming there's no trade), Calvin Johnson (who will improve in his second year) and solid third and fourth options, Shaun McDonald and Mike Furrey. Kitna will put up solid numbers, but the mountain of negative plays sends him down my list. If the losses pile up in Detroit, Kitna may find himself on the bench. Approach with caution.
Next: Running Backs 40-21
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