Halpin' Hand: The Lower Half

by John Halpin, FOXSports.com


Updated: May 7, 2008, 11:44 AM EST 3 comments

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If you've lost a starting pitcher, you're probably at one of four stages.

1. The Ian Kennedy stage: "That guy was killing me — I'm glad he's gone. I guess I have to pick someone up."
2. The Phil Hughes stage: "Oh, crap. I thought he was going to be good. I need to do something — fast."
3. The Yovani Gallardo stage: "Nooooooooo! I'm screwed. God, please make my next pickup the second coming of Cal Eldred from 1992."
4. The John Smoltz stage: No words due to loss of consciousness caused by repeatedly banging your head against the wall.

Those four pitchers and some others are causing a lot of fantasy headaches, so let's focus on starters this week. I promised I wouldn't mention anyone more than once in a month, so this is me not mentioning Chad Gaudin (owned in 32.5 percent of FOXSports.com leagues) and Clay Buchholz (32.4 percent owned). As always, if a player is owned in more than half our leagues, he won't be mentioned here. Also, don't expect any Cy Young Award winners. We're scrambling at this point, right?

Jose Contreras, White Sox (48.4 percent owned)

OK, so Contreras is declining and, for all we know, he might be 67 years old. So far this season, he's 2-3 with a 4.08 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 21 strikeouts against 11 walks in 39 innings. Contreras was victimized by a high BABIP (.335) last season, so he wasn't really as bad as his 5.57 ERA would suggest. He could be an average pitcher in 2008; just be ready to grab a reinforcement in case he implodes and winds up in a nursing home by September.

Braden Looper, Cardinals (31.2 percent owned)

Looper's another iffy suggestion, but you'll soon know which side of the "if" he falls on. He's got a 3.86 ERA so far, and his K/BB ratio isn't bad (18/10). Also, check out Looper's game log — he's only had one bad start out of six. There's a possibility he will get bounced from the Cardinals' rotation when Mark Mulder returns, and that situation should shake out in the next couple of weeks. If Looper keeps his rotation slot, he could be OK.

Max Scherzer, Diamondbacks (29.2 percent owned)

The 23-year-old Scherzer dazzled in his major league debut on April 29, striking out seven batters in 4 1/3 perfect innings. The D'backs wasted no time putting him in the rotation, and while he had a shaky first start Monday night against the Phillies, that's only one game. Scherzer throws gas, and although some people think he's destined to become a reliever, he started this season with a dominating four-start stretch in Triple A: 1.17 ERA, 0.65 WHIP, and 38 strikeouts against just three walks in 23 innings. If you're in gambling mode, Scherzer has the kind of upside you gamble on. Young, talented and a Diamondback — what a shock.

Jair Jurrjens, Braves (28.8 percent owned)

Jurrjens, acquired from the Tigers in the Edgar Renteria trade, has been terrific so far, with a 3.05 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP and just one home run allowed in 38 1/3 innings. Jurrjens' .234 BABIP isn't going to stay so low, so his other numbers will probably get worse, but he induces a lot of ground balls and keeps the ball in the park - he allowed just 23 homers in 396 1/3 minor league innings from 2005-07. Jurrjens won't be spectacular, but he'll be solid, and that's just fine.

Jon Lester, Red Sox (25.1 percent owned)

Jon Lester is having some control problems, but at least he's been able to limit the number of runs he's given up recently. ( Jim Rogash / Getty Images)
I was down on Lester before the season started, mostly because I thought his control problems were going to get him into trouble. The evidence still suggests that will happen — he's already walked 26 batters in 45 innings. But if you're looking for a silver lining, note that Lester has allowed only one run in his last 14 innings (yes, there were seven walks). Nobody questions his ability, and his team will ensure that he reaches double digits in wins. That last fact alone could make Lester worth the minimal investment as long as he doesn't wreck your other numbers.

Dana Eveland, A's (9.5 percent owned)

I've read things comparing Eveland to both David Wells and Wilson Alvarez, and while that means people don't think much of his, um, generous physique, it also means they think he could be a pretty good pitcher. Eveland is 3-2 with a 3.05 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP so far, and he whiffs a decent number of batters. If you pick him up, send him an e-mail with the names of some health food restaurants in the Bay Area.

John Danks, White Sox (7.2 percent owned)

The 23-year-old Danks had a rocky rookie season in 2007 (6-13, 5.50 ERA), but he's off to a strong start this year with a 3.12 ERA and 25 Ks versus just eight walks in 34 2/3 innings. Looking deeper, if you throw out his seven-run stinkbomb against the Twins on April 9, Danks has allowed a total of five runs in his other five starts. Yes, a .255 BABIP suggests that Danks has been lucky so far, but there's no reason why he can't be a productive No. 5 fantasy starter.

Andy Sonnanstine, Rays (5 percent owned)

Sonnanstine's never going to be a superstar, but he has that "knows how to pitch" thing going for him. He doesn't walk people, and because of that his WHIP probably isn't going to blow up on you (it's 1.18 now). Sonnanstine's Double-A and Triple-A stops both featured ERAs in the 2.60s and WHIPs in the 1.00 range, and while he probably doesn't have the stuff to carry those performances over to the majors, he can be perfectly, acceptably average. Is that so bad?

Jesse Litsch, Blue Jays (2.7 percent owned)

It's bottom of the barrel time, folks. Litsch has a history of good control and it's been terrific this year — he's walked only seven batters in 33 1/3 innings. Though he has a 4.32 ERA, he's 4-1 and has allowed three runs in his last 14 1/3 innings. Litsch is the Jays' fifth starter, and you can consider him in AL-only leagues.

Luke Hochevar, Royals (0.7 percent owned)

The former top overall pick in the MLB draft, Hochevar probably won't be a star, but he has the makings of a productive starter. His 4.64 ERA between the minors and majors in 2007 wasn't good, but his K/BB ratio (143/51 in 164 2/3 innings) make you think there's more than meets the eye. Thanks to No. 4 starter/supergenius John Bale recently, Hochevar's spot in the Royals rotation is somewhat secure. He's got better ability than most back-of-the-rotation starters, so he's worth a flyer.

Kei Igawa, Yankees (0.3 percent owned)

Yep, this one is a stretch. The Yanks signed Igawa before the 2007 season, and his $26 million transfer fee created high expectations. Then he pitched, allowed a whopping 15 home runs in 67 2/3 innings, and had millions of New Yorkers wondering how to say "bust" in Japanese.

Thanks to Hughes' injury and Kennedy's struggles, Igawa's about to re-join the Yankee rotation. I'm basing his inclusion here on two things: the run support he'll get from the Yankee lineup and his solid strikeout rates (a batter per inning in Triple A this season, and seven per nine innings with the Yankees last year). Also, I heard Hank Steinbrenner was considering moving the outfield fences back to 800 feet down the lines, 900 feet in the gaps and 1,000 in dead center in an effort to keep at least some of Igawa's offerings in the park. You think it'll work?

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