News analysis: Hill sent to minors
by Jeff Freels, KFFL
KFFL: Over a dozen expert league championships — a proven source of player news and fantasy content.
Both Cubs manager Lou Piniella and general manager Jim Hendry have expressed disappointment with Hill's performance so far this season, but both men also said they hoped to see Hhim back in a Cubs uniform very soon.
"He needs to relax and just go pitch," said Piniella. "He'll go down to Iowa and get a few starts, and I think you'll see him back here pitching well for us."
Expectations on the part of the Cubs organization that Hill would deliver around 200 innings and 15 wins in 2008 were based on growth shown by the young lefty over the last three seasons. Having gotten his first call to the majors in 2005, he's consistently improved his strikeout and walk rates each year even as his ERA and WHIP ratios have progressed.
The perception that Hill was developing into a reliable pitcher with solid peripherals was encouraged by the strength of his 2007 campaign. Finishing with a record of 11-8 over 195 innings and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 183-63, it looked as though he could be poised for a breakout season in 2008. Unfortunately, troubling signs emerged for him very early on this year.
A disastrous spring training, in which he walked 15 batters in 17 2/3 innings, would portend ill for his regular season. However, unfazed by his rocky spring, the Cubs plugged Hill into the fourth spot in their rotation as the year began.
Over five regular season starts and 19 2/3 innings, Hill demonstrated the same inability to keep the ball in the strike zone as he showed in the spring. The result has been a 1-0 record with a 4.12 ERA and 1.58 WHIP.
Hill's heavy reliance on off-speed pitches, particularly a sharp breaking ball, make it a necessity for him to exhibit pinpoint control on the mound. His 18 walks so far this season are a testament to his failure to do so, even as 15 strikeouts and .191 opponents' average indicate his dominance hasn't deserted him entirely.
Hope for Hill's speedy return could be on the horizon. He's claimed he was able to identify a mechanical issue that might explain his troubles, blaming it on a slight drop in his arm angle as compared to previous years.
Hill made his first Triple-A start Tuesday. Working five innings, he allowed seven hits and two earned runs while walking one and striking out five. Out of 78 pitches thrown, 47 were for strikes. Obviously, Triple-A competition doesn't compare to that in the majors, but it's a good sign he was able to throw strikes consistently.
Cubs fans and fantasy owners might be happy to know this isn't the first time Hill's been sent down to work on his arsenal. He was ineffective to begin the 2006 season, went to Triple-A for a little more than two months to iron out his game, and returned to post a 6-3 record with a 2.93 ERA for the remainder of that season.
Even as Hill's walk rate has reached a major league career high, he's held opponents to a .191 average and a career-low rate of home runs allowed. Consider that along with the 15 strikeouts he's recorded and it isn't unreasonable to believe he can return to major league effectiveness this year, possibly in a matter of weeks.
A major league pitcher's confidence can be a fragile thing. If Hill somehow gets it into his head that major league hitters have his number, or that the Cubs have lost confidence in him, he could be done for.
There's also the problem of whether or not there's a bigger mechanical or physical issue to blame for Hill's struggles. No sources at this point indicate anything in that vein, but given the magnitude of his poor start, it shouldn't be ruled out.
Hill's amply demonstrated his ability to be an effective and, at times, dominating major league pitcher over the last two seasons, and it's quite possible he could do so again. That being said, this is the perfect time to buy low in all leagues.
Owners who drafted Hill are likely frustrated by his performance to date and could be amenable to moving him for pennies on the dollar if not outright releasing him. Those with room on their rosters to stash him for the next several weeks could be richly rewarded late in the season as the Cubs push for the playoffs.
Between his strikeout potential and the Cubs ability to put runs on the board and win games, Hill could bring tremendous value to any owner willing to take the risk on his return to major league action. Monitor his next few starts in the minors, just keep in mind that his trade value is probably at its lowest point right now.
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