The debates about the top running back options will extend into draft season.
Do you take
Brian Westbrook or
Adrian Peterson at No. 2? What do you do with
Larry Johnson?
The wide receiver position is also one to ponder. Randy Moss is cemented into the No. 1 slot following his monstrous 2007 season, but it becomes a jumbled mess thereafter. Do we break out the popcorn for Terrell Owens, or does Reggie Wayne slide above him?
Of course, the most interesting draft-day decisions concern Chad Johnson and Marvin Harrison. Where do you place them on your rankings sheet?
20. Hines Ward, Pittsburgh Steelers
Am I concerned about Ward experiencing a setback following his off-season knee surgery? Without question, we'd like to see him participating in mini-camps. However, there are few players who fit the term "gamer" better than Ward, and even fewer receivers who can sit down in a zone, create space and make a grab. Despite battling injuries all season and missing three games in their entirety, Ward caught only three fewer passes in 2007 than he had in 2006 as
Ben Roethlisberger's arm came alive. Remember that he also caught seven touchdowns and remains one of Roethlisberger's premier red zone targets. I'm assuming a return to health for his knee (which remains to be seen), but I'll take a shot at Ward as my No. 2 wide receiver in this offense.
19. Lee Evans, Buffalo Bills
Big plays came fewer and farther between for Evans and the Bills last season. Evans caught four or fewer passes in 12 of 16 games last season, although he still scored three touchdowns in December (that's what he does). The Bills addressed the No. 2 wide receiver slot with the selection of red zone beast
James Hardy in the draft. Hardy's learning curve will be accelerated, as the team needs him to produce immediately to open opportunities for their speedster downfield. Evans is a home run threat for
Trent Edwards (I'm assuming
J.P. Losman stays in the background), but I expect the team to utilize more on short routes to get the ball into his hands. Evans can only be better in 2008.
18. Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs
Despite miserable quarterback play and ineffectiveness in the running game, Bowe narrowly missed reaching the hallowed 1,000-yard receiving mark as a rookie (995). He caught 70 passes and caught five touchdowns. The Chiefs fortified the offensive line and expect L.J. to return to pre-2007 form. As such, even though the quarterback position remains a concern, there's no reason to believe that Bowe can't be even more productive alongside
Tony Gonzalez. Perhaps speedsters
Devard Darling or
Bobby Sippio can stretch the field and create even more space for him to operate. Either way, I'm buying into Bowe as a sophomore.
17. Roy Williams, Detroit Lions
I'll leave the win predictions to
Jon Kitna, but I do suspect Williams could be primed for a big year. The Lions drafted
Kevin Smith to improve their disappointing backfield, and perhaps the O-Line will keep Kitna upright. I'm most concerned with Williams' health. He missed four games last year and has been limited at times throughout his career. A return to Williams' 2006 brilliance of 1,310 receiving yards and 82 receptions is a possibility given the more balanced and less frenetic approach. As always, we need to temper expectations for Detroit. The consummation of a deal between Detroit and Dallas would be most intriguing.
16. Brandon Marshall, Denver Broncos
As discussed with Colston, the sky is the limit for Marshall in his third year, assuming that he fully recovers from his off-season injury. He closed the 2007 season in style, topping 100 receiving yards in three of the final four games while racking up 47 receptions. Marshall drew the ire of quarterback
Jay Cutler, so it will be interesting to see if their on-field relationship suffers at all (i.e.,
Tony Scheffler and
Brandon Stokley see more balls). The offensive line has been fortified, and Cutler should improve in his second full season as a starter.
15. Marvin Harrison, Indianapolis Colts
Marvin? Really? That text alert just didn't seem right, but so be it. Harrison finds himself embroiled in some off-field controversy as he builds toward a return from his injury-shortened 2007 season. Harrison caught 20 passes for 247 yards and one touchdown in limited action for the Colts last season, ending his streak of double-digit touchdown seasons at eight. Wayne supplants him as the No. 1 in the Colts' attack, but Harrison will be intriguing to watch as camp approaches. Given Peyton Manning's accuracy and ability to get the ball out, it's entirely possible that Harrison returns to the top of the heap. I just want to see him run before we get too excited.
14. Anquan Boldin, Arizona Cardinals
Injury concerns push Boldin slightly down the list, but there are few more productive players when in the lineup. Despite missing four complete games and parts of several others, Boldin still established a new career mark with nine touchdowns alongside partner Fitzgerald. He twice caught double-digit passes in a game and caught three or more passes in all but one game in which he appeared. If the Cardinals can straighten out the quarterback situation, Boldin represents a potential bargain on draft day.
13. Chad Johnson, Cincinnati Bengals
Johnson started the 2007 season with two huge performance and then experienced an eight-game touchdown drought while watching teammate Houshmandzadeh pile up scores. Ultimately, Johnson finished with eight touchdowns (two off his career mark) and achieved a new career mark in receiving yards, with 1,440, and caught more than 90 passes for the fourth time in five years. There's no question that Johnson has the ability to retain his place among the game's top receivers, but will he take his ball and go home? We'll watch this situation as camp looms.
12. Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints
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| Marques Colston has already posted impressive numbers in his first two years, and now he'll have an improved offense around him in 2008. (Otto Greule Jr / Getty Images) |
By the old theory, wide receivers are supposed to begin their dominance in their third year in the NFL. What does that mean for Colston, who caught 98 balls for 1,202 yards and 11 scores in his second year with
Drew Brees? How about the fact that Colston has averaged 84 receptions, 1,120 yards and 9.5 touchdowns in his first two years as a pro? The sky is the limit for Colston this year, as Brees will not experience another horrific run of bad play as we saw early in the 2007 campaign. I expect this offense to be improved with the return of
Deuce McAllister and participation from 2007 first-round pick
Robert Meachem. His reception total may dip slightly this year, with Brees effectively spreading the ball around, but the yardage and touchdown totals will be off the charts.
11. Plaxico Burress, New York Giants
His heart was questioned at several different points of the 2007 season, but tell that to Burress' ring finger. Burress scored in six straight games to open the season and came up big down the stretch. He caught 70 passes for 1,025 yards and posted his second straight double-digit touchdown campaign. Burress has been instrumental to
Eli Manning's growth, and the emergence of
Steve Smith (USC) as a viable downfield option will open the middle of the field for Burress. At 6-foot-5, he continues to go up and over defenders and creates a sizable target for Manning. I expect another double-digit touchdown campaign and the continuation of his red zone dominance.
10. Torry Holt, St. Louis Rams
Holt remains the model of consistency for receivers, having topped 1,000 receiving yards in eight straight seasons (essentially duplicating his 2006 totals in 2007). He's missed only two games in his storied career and has averaged nearly eight touchdowns per year since joining the Rams (90 or more receptions in six straight years). His placement at 10th in this initial list assumes that
Marc Bulger returns to full health and that
Drew Bennett can fill the shoes of longtime tag team partner
Isaac Bruce.
9. Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers
I'm tempted to slide Smith up the rankings a few slots, but I'll hold off until I'm sure that
Jake Delhomme is completely cleared to start the season. Even with Delhomme on the shelf and John Fox instituting a QB shuffle, Smith still achieved the fourth 1,000-yard season of his career and scored seven touchdowns. In fact, Smith has scored seven or more touchdowns in each of his last four full seasons. He also gets bonus points for telling teammate
Dwayne Jarrett to grow up, and I love the acquisition of
D.J. Hackett.
8. Wes Welker, New England Patriots
We certainly didn't expect Welker to rank among the game's elite fantasy weapons last season, although his emergence as the 2007 version of
Kevin Curtis didn't come as a total shock. After all, Welker caught 67 balls for 687 yards for the Dolphins in 2006. The Patriots are loaded for another huge run in 2008, and there's no question that Welker's ability to slide underneath coverage will be exploited by
Tom Brady once again. He caught five or more passes in 12 different games last season and will be a PPR monster once again.
7. Andre Johnson, Houston Texans
Johnson started the season brilliantly, racking up 14 receptions, 262 yards and three scores before missing seven games because of an injury. He didn't miss a beat upon his return to the field. Johnson scored in five of his first six games following his return and averaged 6.5 receptions and 84 receiving yards over the season's final seven games. The team expects
Matt Schaub to return to the starting role for 2008 (Although
Sage Rosenfels represents a tremendous safety valve. Did I just write that?), and he's got support in the receiving corps from
Owen Daniels,
Kevin Walter and speedster
Jacoby Jones (I'll start the bandwagon early). Johnson's a beast in PPR leagues, and this physical receiver clears space in red zone jump ball situations.
6. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Cincinnati Bengals
I'm somewhat nervous about Houshmandzadeh and the Bengals' offense for 2008. The running back situation is unsettled (will
Shaun Alexander join the mix?) and the Johnson drama is deep into Act II. However, I would be short-sighted to say that Houshmandzadeh couldn't produce stellar numbers alongside the bevy of young receivers in Cincinnati as necessary. Also, I believe that No. 85 eventually lines up opposite Houshmandzadeh and things fall into place. Houshmandzadeh has improved his receiving output in each of his NFL seasons, culminating with a huge 12-touchdown effort in 2007. Fantasy owners celebrated his season-opening streak of eight games with at least one touchdown reception. I fear the constant double-team coverage sure to be faced by Houshmandzadeh if "Ocho Cinco" takes a seat and a new receiving option fails to emerge, but we'll revisit that once camp gets underway and we get some clarity on the situation.
5. Braylon Edwards, Cleveland Browns
Everyone believed that Edwards had the individual talent to become a stat accumulator for owners last season, but nobody could have expected him to attain such heights given the preseason concerns at the quarterback position. Then came
Derek Anderson. Edwards and Anderson connected immediately, and the third-year pro from Michigan snagged 16 touchdown receptions. Edwards scored in 11 of the 15 games played with Anderson at the helm and caught three or more passes in 15 of 16 starts. Even when he was held to a single reception against the Steelers in Week 10, Edwards made it count. He scored on a 16-yard pass. The Browns are even stronger in 2008. Left tackle
Joe Thomas will get even better, and the receiving corps welcomes
Donte' Stallworth, who will force safeties to commit downfield. I'm excited and intrigued by the Browns as we roll toward training camp, and that's why Edwards makes "my five."
4. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals
Fitzgerald wrapped up the fourth season of his career — his second 100-reception campaign — with a shiny, new contract. In fact, Fitzgerald has twice racked up 1,409 receiving yards and has averaged 82.5 receptions and 8.5 touchdowns per season since joining the Cardinals. I anticipate a more fluid Arizona offense this season, whether veteran
Kurt Warner assumes the starting post or
Matt Leinart reclaims the job. He knows how to create space downfield and remains a red zone monster.
3. Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts
Wayne demonstrated to fans and fantasy owners that he's always been more than a sidekick when Harrison went down with an injury early in 2007. He obliterated his previous career marks by recording 104 receptions and 1,510 receiving yards. Wayne also posted his third season with nine or more touchdowns in the past four years. Harrison's return from injury (and potential legal issues) puts Wayne front and center once again for
Peyton Manning, and that portends to another eye-popping season.
2. Terrell Owens, Dallas Cowboys
I almost moved him to the top spot after he appeared on Flavor Flav's new sitcom, but I just couldn't move him ahead of Moss. Owens has been nothing short of dominant in his two years in Dallas. He's averaged 83 receptions, 1,267 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns. In fact, Owens has caught nine or more touchdowns in seven of the past eight seasons. He still scored six touchdowns in 2005 despite being suspended by the Eagles for nine games. Some point to his advanced age (he's 35) as a reason to move him down in the rankings, but I won't buy into that. The Owens-
Tony Romo connection continues to confound opposing coordinators this season.
1. Randy Moss, New England Patriots
What else can be said about Moss' ridiculous 2007 season? He more than doubled his touchdown total from his two lost seasons in Oakland and nearly matched his yardage output for that period. Moss was shut out of the end zone in only three games last season and produced multi-TD grabs in eight different games. He answered every critic by catching pass after pass, demonstrated better speed than anticipated on deep routes and leapt over his share of cornerbacks along the way. I expect more
Laurence Maroney touches inside the five this season, but Moss still leads the pack.
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