Halpin' Hand: Closer update
by John Halpin, FOXSports.com
Here's an update on the closer situations for all 30 teams, with extra attention focused on volatile (or potentially volatile) situations. But since all bullpens are a crapshoot, many of the "solid" situations could change at a moment's notice. When they do, my morning blog will be the place to find out. I live to read about Manny Acosta in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution at 5:20 in the morning.
Solid
Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers (really), Rays, Twins, Royals, White Sox, Angels, Mariners, A's, Marlins, Phillies, Mets, Astros, Cardinals*, Reds, Pirates, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Padres, Giants
(* Since this was written, Jason Isringhausen has at least temporarily been relieved of his closing duties in St. Louis.)
Iffy
Blue Jays: B.J. Ryan hasn't allowed a run in eight innings since returning in near-record time from his June 2007 Tommy John surgery. He's got 10 strikeouts in eight innings. Wow, great, what a comeback, congratulations for drafting him.
I'm telling you, this guy is a time bomb. He walked three batters in an inning on Monday, and has just been cleared to throw on consecutive days, which should be an experiment in itself. I'm no doctor, so I don't know what the effects of Ryan's increased workload will be. I just think he's bound to implode at some point. His recovery seemed too lightning-quick, didn't it?
In Ryan's defense, his replacement pool is questionable. Last year's closer, Jeremy Accardo, has gotten off to a rough start. Jesse Carlson is pitching very well, but I bet that even Ken Rosenthal hadn't heard of him before last month. Scott Downs? Eh.
Cubs: Kerry Wood is flashing dominant stuff in his new role, but after his third blown save last week the vultures started circling a bit, so I felt like I had to include him here. Wood's problem isn't going to be a few blown saves, but an injury, which is likely considering his history and could come at any time. If and when it does, Carlos Marmol (1.29 ERA, 28Ks in 21 innings) is a beast.
Orioles: George Sherrill is tied for second in the American League with 11 saves, but he's walked eight batters against 10 strikeouts in 14 2/3 innings, and that doesn't exactly scream "Billy Wagner." Sherrill's never been a closer before, so there's no reason he can't lose this job easily, no matter how much noise the Orioles made in spring training about how much they like him.
Before the season I thought Jim Hoey would be Sherrill's eventual replacement, but he's on the disabled list and it's not clear when he'll return. Vets Chad Bradford and Jamie Walker are possibilities, but keep an eye on Dennis Sarfate, who's as wild as they get, but has whiffed 17 batters in 14 2/3 innings so far.
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| C.J. Wilson has a nice low ERA, but he's also giving up a high number of walks. (Lisa Blumenfeld / Getty Images) |
Rangers: Hey, I like C.J. Wilson. He pitched well last season, has a 2.77 ERA now - what's not to like? His 5/5 K/BB ratio, for one thing. Problem is, Joaquin Benoit has been hog-wild, and Eddie Guardado has already been injured while waiting to get his AARP card in the mail, so there's not a logical replacement. I hesitated before including the Rangers here, but I don't trust Wilson.
Rockies: The NL champs already made a change here, replacing Manny Corpas with the solid Brian Fuentes, who's been just fine despite blowing as many saves (two) as he's converted. No worries here, other than the ones the Rox encountered with Fuentes in April.
Red alert
Brewers: I was all over Eric Gagne during the off-season, ranking him as high as 10th (or was it ninth?) among fantasy closers. I thought he had landed in the perfect situation after his not-as-bad-as-it-looked stint with the Red Sox. He's on a good team, has a solid setup corps and is in his second full season after back surgery. I know that "second season" thing usually applies to elbows and not backs, but I'm trying to build a case here.
Yeah, well, so much for my "expert" opinion. Gagne has been awful, blowing five of his 14 save chances and posting a 6.14 ERA. He's still striking out more than a batter per inning, but he's also issuing more free passes than the doorman at a Kevin Federline club appearance in Vegas. I'm not giving up on Gagne yet, and the Brewers are saying his job is safe. But if he does lose it, look for Salomon Torres to step in. Seth McClung, Guillermo Mota and David Riske are too walk-prone to trust.
(P.S. I used the Federline joke a couple of weeks ago, but I liked it so much I thought I'd toss it in again, even though my wife had a blank look on her face when I read it to her. Come on — it's funny, right?)
Indians: Joe Borowski is out with a triceps injury, but he could be back in a couple of weeks. Despite pretty good strikeout rates, Borowski walks a constant tightrope when he pitches, and nobody seems to trust him. Plus, we don't know how healthy he'll be when he gets back from the disabled list.
The Tribe would seem to have a ready-made replacement in Rafael Betancourt, but he's given up four gopher balls in 13 2/3 innings so far after allowing the same number in nearly 80 innings last season. If Borowski's healthy, he's going to have to give the job away to lose it ... but let's see if he's healthy.
Nationals: Chad Cordero is on the disabled list for the second time this season with a shoulder injury, and in between his two stints he was having trouble throwing harder than Tim Wakefield, Chad Pennington and my four-year-old daughter. Cordero is targeting a June return, but there's no real reason to expect him to be effective at that point.
Freakishly tall Jon Rauch took over for Cordero, and he's pitched pretty well so far, with seven saves and a 3.52 ERA. I wrote a couple of weeks ago that I wouldn't be surprised if Rauch got 25 saves, and I still feel that way. Besides, it would be fun to own Rauch just so you could say in an argument, "Oh, yeah? Well, my closer is SIX-FOOT-ELEVEN!"
Broke a mirror while walking under a ladder after a black cat crossed their path
Braves; There are no words to adequately describe the awful run of luck that has decimated the Braves' pitching staff. Rafael Soriano's elbow is recovering more slowly than expected, Peter Moylan needs Tommy John surgery, and three of their starters (Tom Glavine, Mike Hampton, John Smoltz) have been on the disabled list. Part of me expects to read the transactions some morning and see, "Atlanta Braves: Signed Steve Avery and Alejandro Peña."
Manny Acosta is the nominal closer at the moment, but he's a bases on balls machine. Bet on Smoltz being installed as the closer as soon as he gets off the DL in a few weeks, and hope he holds up if you own him. If he doesn't, the saves could go to Soriano, TJ returnee Mike Gonzalez, Mike Stanton, Bruce Sutter, Gene Garber ... heck if I know.
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