News analysis: Saints RB situation
by Thomas Griffenkranz, KFFL
KFFL: Over a dozen expert league championships — a proven source of player news and fantasy content.
Running back Deuce McAllister (knees) has played in only 23 of 48 games the past three seasons and is coming off two knee surgeries. Last year, he tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee during a Week 3 loss to the Titians. During that surgery, doctors also performed microfracture surgery on his right knee, a knee that caused him to miss 11 games in 2005. It generally takes NFL running backs 12-18 months to return to form following an ACL tear. With microfracture knee surgery, recovery time can take up to two year, and athletes often don't return to pre-surgery form. Despite these factors, the Saints are optimistic he'll be ready for the start of the 2008 season.
Former first-round pick, running back Reggie Bush (knee) is also coming off an injury that caused him to miss the final four games of 2007. Before the injury, his 2007 season can be summed up with one word: disappointing. He accounted for only 581 yards rushing, a 48.4 per-game average, and failed to rush for more than 100 yards in any game. He reached the end zone on the ground only four times. He clearly showed he wasn't ready to be an every-down NFL back. As a receiver, he was able to haul in 73 balls, scoring twice. These are definitely not the kind of rushing numbers the Saints envisioned when they selected him with the second pick in the 2006 NFL Draft.
After McAllister and Bush, the Saints have two backs that don't invoke confidence. Aaron Stecker, a career backup, ran for 444 yards on 114 attempts in 2007, a 3.9 yards-per-carry average. Pierre Thomas added 251 yards on 50 rushing attempts, a 5.0 yards-per-carry average.
Heading into the 2008 season, what kind of value can fantasy owners find in the Saints' backfield?
McAllister's missed 25 games during the passed three seasons, is coming off two major knees surgeries and will turn 30 in 2008. That's a lot going against him; add to that, if he is able to return to full strength, he'll share carries with Bush. McAllister should be considered No. 4 running back option with little upside and a high risk of injury.
This year could be a make-or-break season for Bush. He needs to answer the question, is he capable of being anything more than a third-down back? There is no question Bush can be explosive as a pass catcher, but he hasn't displayed the ability to carry the ball 25-30 times a game. With McAllister's uncertainty, Bush will get every opportunity to prove he can carry the full load. He should be viewed as a No. 2 running back option with some upside, and Bush clearly has greater value/upside in point-per-reception formats. Owners should look to select him sometime in the third round of their draft in standard formats or in the second in leagues that award for receptions.
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