Halpin' Hand: Armed and Unpredictable
by John Halpin, FOXSports.com
And if you think I'm doing well, you should see the coin Mike Harmon is raking in. I heard he bought M.C. Hammer's old mansion and changed the front gate to say HARMON TIME.
Anyway, because I need to focus on the marginal guys, sometimes I repeat myself. I don't think that's a bad thing depending on the context. Looking at the list of players below, at different times I've suggested picking up some and trading others. They're all young pitchers who have made surprising impacts after flying under the fantasy radar before the season, and I'll look at what you might expect from them the rest of the way, based on minor league history, peripheral stats like K/BB ratio and batting average on balls in play (BABIP), and my own hunches. Oh, and don't forget to claim Albert Pujols. I hear he's pretty good.
We'll go in alphabetical order, which saves the best for last this time around. If you have any suggestions of your own, scroll to the bottom of the page and have at it.
(Note: All stats are through Tuesday)
Nick Blackburn, Twins (93 IP, 6-4, 3.68 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 49 K, 15 BB)
Blackburn was rated as the Twins' top prospect this year by Baseball America. A .331 BABIP suggests he's been unlucky so far. His control is spectacular — so good that his 3.36 pitches per plate appearance is third-lowest in the majors, behind only noted control artists Paul Byrd and Greg Maddux.
I'm not usually a big fan of pitchers who don't strike out a lot of batters — especially in 5x5 leagues, of course — but I'm learning to really like the guys who avoid the free passes. I'll say the same thing about Blackburn that I say about my current fantasy man-crush Kevin Slowey: If he keeps giving himself plenty of margin for error by being stingy with the walks, he might not be spectacular, but he should keep being pretty good.
Dana Eveland, A's (89 2/3 IP, 5-5, 3.51 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 62 K, 44 BB)
I read someone comparing Eveland to David Wells before the season and my first reaction was, "Fat guy!" Eveland is listed at 6-foot even and 240 pounds, so let's be nice and call him "sturdy." The sturdy lefty has been a rock for the A's so far, allowing more than three runs only twice in 15 starts. You don't care if he eats a couple of slices of pizza in the dugout between innings if he keeps that up, right?
Unfortunately, there are some red flags for Eveland. His high walk rate is one, and so the fact that he has never pitched more than 140 2/3 innings as a pro. Somewhere around the end of August, Eveland will be a good candidate to run out of gas. Try to squeeze another month out of him, then hit the "eject" button.
Gavin Floyd, White Sox (90 1/3 IP, 8-3, 3.19 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 55 K, 33 BB)
Floyd's been picking up the pace on the strikeout front lately, whiffing 19 batters in his last 19 innings, and that's a good sign. However, 127 major league pitchers have thrown 60 or more innings this season, and you know who has the lowest BABIP? Floyd, at a ridiculously low .202. I could have given him a pass if he was 125th or 126th, but I had to draw a line somewhere. Expect more bad days than good ones for Floyd from now on.
Jair Jurrjens, Braves (90 IP, 7-3, 3.20 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 66 K, 36 BB)
I'm waving you on here. There's no reason why Jurrjens can't keep up this level of performance, or something not too far from it. His K rate is just fine and he doesn't walk too many people. The expert consensus seems to be that Jurrjens will be a No. 3 starter in the majors and it looks like he's there already at age 22. Figure on a 3.60-ish ERA the rest of the way.
Aaron Laffey, Indians (70 IP, 4-4, 2.83 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 30 K, 19 BB)
I do like the control guys, but Laffey's strikeout rate is in the unacceptable range. He's been hit-lucky with a .264 BABIP, he doesn't throw very hard and anyone who puts the ball in play this much not named "Wang" is asking for trouble. Prepare for a crash landing.
John Lannan, Nationals (89 IP, 4-8, 3.34 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 55 K, 28 BB)
I'll be brief here, because I write about Lannan all the time in my blog. He's a groundball machine, ranking third in the majors in groundball-to-flyball ratio. He's perfectly, boringly adequate. If you're in an NL-only league or a really deep mixed one, I very lukewarmly recommend him to continue a solid season, with about a half-run rise in ERA.
Joe Saunders, Angels (101 IP, 11-3, 3.03 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 49 K, 25 BB)
A lot of people wrote Saunders off after last season due to his terrible time in Anaheim (4.45 ERA, 1.52 WHIP in 18 starts) and even worse performance in Triple-A Salt Lake City (5.11 ERA in 14 starts). Now, he's tracking toward a possible selection as the American League's starting pitcher in the All-Star Game, and in March I'd have bet on O.J. Simpson marrying Miley Cyrus before laying any money on that.
I hate to be a wet blanket, but our friend Mr. BABIP is rearing his ugly head again — at .244, Saunders ranks just six spots ahead of the aforementioned Gavin Floyd among major league starters. Any pitcher who puts the ball in play that much is going to have some very bad days, and Saunders has posted a five-run outing and an eight-run debacle in his last five starts. In September, I have a feeling you're going to look back and say, "Joe Saunders was an All-Star? Really?"
Greg Smith, A's (84 2/3 IP, 4-5, 3.51 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 64 K, 36 BB)
And now, ranked at a lofty 105th on the BABIP list with an average of .270, it's ... Greg Smith!
(Clap-clap-clap-clap-clap-clap- clap-clap-clap-clap-clap-clap!)
Yes, I know that stat isn't the end-all, be-all for pitchers. Smith is usually projected as a fifth starter or reliever, and his stuff isn't that great. He's one of those "knows how to pitch" guys, and while that's definitely a plus, his control is starting to get pretty shaky, as he's walked 12 batters in his last 17 2/3 innings.
In an AL-only league, you're probably going to ride it out with Smith, and that's fine. In a mixed league, you can do better for a fifth or sixth starter, and you might want to package him in a bigger deal while he still has good value. His second half ERA is going to pass the 4.00 mark.
Edinson Volquez, Reds (95 IP, 10-2, 1.71 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 110 K, 45 BB)
Wow. He got better in the minors last season, but ... wow. While Volquez asks for trouble by allowing so many walks, a pitcher who leads the majors in strikeouts is obviously good enough to keep pitching at a very high level. He's also among the top 15 percent of major league starters in groundball-to-flyball ratio, and has allowed three — three! — home runs all season. Repeat after me: Edinson Volquez has been baseball's best pitcher for three months. In other news, The World Figure Skating Championships have been relocated to Hell.
Is Volquez going to have a 1.71 ERA all year long? Of course not. But a 3.00 ERA the rest of the way sounds about right, and guys with numbers like that aren't easy to find.
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