QB preview: Brady tops, followed by Manning, Romo
1. Tom Brady, New England: Randy Moss is returning, and his 20-plus touchdowns is the difference between Brady being a top-10 fantasy quarterback and the best one. Add that he's well protected in an extremely pass-heavy offense and will be even more tuned into Moss and Wes Welker in the trio's second year together. Playing in last year's weakest division, Brady threw 21 touchdown passes in five divisional games alone. Give Brady the league's easiest schedule with games against the AFC West and NFC West, and he will have easy scores. As a bonus, his coach likes to go for touchdowns rather than kicking field goals on fourth downs.
Backup: Matt Cassel
2. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis: In his first 10 seasons, Mr. Consistency has started all 160 games, thrown for at least 4,000 yards eight times and passed for at least 26 touchdowns every year. Even though Marvin Harrison has declined, teammate Reggie Wayne has emerged as one of top No. 1 wide receivers. Coupled with reliable tight end Dallas Clark as a third receiver, Anthony Gonzalez is ready to contribute more in his second season. To keep defenses from keying on the pass, Manning counters by utilizing one of the top running backs, Joseph Addai. Ensuing play action results into easy, quick scores from Indy's receivers winning one-on-one matchups.
Backup: Jim Sorgi
3. Tony Romo, Dallas: Impressively, he threw for the third-most yards (4,211) and second-most touchdowns (36) in his first full season of starting. He accomplished those feats without a legitimate No. 2 wideout. Still, tight end Jason Witten fits the bill as a top second receiver. He caught the 10th-most passes (96), produced his first 1,000-yard season with the league's 14th-most yards (1,145 yards) and added seven scores. Terrell Owens remains one of the top playmakers, ensuring Romo finishes with a high touchdown total. Watch out if a third receiver emerges to help Romo compete more effectively against the tough secondaries. The Cowboys' powerful offensive line remains intact, affording Romo protection when needed.
Backup: Brad Johnson
4. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh: The 6-5 quarterback towered over the fantasy competition by throwing for the third-most scores (32). He may be pining for taller wideouts (and was given 6-5 rookie Limas Sweed), but he was effective on the move to orchestrate touchdowns to his undersized receivers Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes. Even so, led by 6-5 Heath Miller, his tight ends combined for 10 scores and provided him the much needed height in the red zone. Though the offensive line remains a question mark with the loss of All-Pro guard Alan Faneca, Roethlisberger's mobility will help him avoid many sacks. Add in a strong running game headed by Willie Parker, and Roethlisberger will be given many chances to score via the pass from play action.
Backup: Charlie Batch
5. Drew Brees, New Orleans: Even in a disappointing Saints' season, Brees sparkled by ranking second in passing yards (4,423) and sixth in passing scores (28). Led by Marques Colston, his deep rotation of talented wideouts will ensure an entire season of health and productivity at that position. A better running game this season may reduce Brees' league-leading passing attempts, but having a more effective offense can provide increased chances for passing scores. In addition, New Orleans' shaky defense will still force Brees to pass frequently and keep pace with the scoring.
Backup: Mark Brunell
6. Carson Palmer, Cincinnati: Though his passing scores have steadily dwindled from 32 to 26 during the past three seasons, Palmer has increased his yardage in that span to throw for a career-high 4,131 yards last season. Even with declining stats, Chad Johnson forms one of the league's best receiving duos with T.J. Houshmandzadeh, arguably now Cincy's No. 1 receiver. After Rudi Johnson struggled last year, health and stability at running back will reverse the scoring decline and increase Palmer's touchdowns. He'll find more passing lanes in the red zone to connect with Johnson and Houshmandzadeh. If Cincy's defense remains subpar, Palmer will have little choice but to be aggressive in the passing attack.
Backup: Ryan Fitzpatrick
7. Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle: Though the running game has reshuffled, Hasselbeck's wideouts remain largely intact with the solid trio of Deion Branch (expected to return from ACL injury this season), Bobby Engram and Nate Burleson. An upgraded offensive line will continue to protect Hasselbeck effectively, allowing him to complete a myriad of throws across and down the field. Seattle's well-balanced attack forces defenses to guard both the pass and run equally, creating mismatches for the Seahawks diminutive receivers against slower defenders. Hasselbeck has mastered Mike Holmgren's offense so effectively that he compiled passing career highs of 3,966 yards (eighth best) and 28 touchdowns (sixth best) last year.
Backup: Seneca Wallace
8. Derek Anderson, Cleveland: He emerged as the biggest surprise at quarterback last year, throwing for the league's fifth-most scores (29). Not only do receiving stars Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow return, but Cleveland added speedster Donte' Stallworth for a formidable third option in the passing game. And if those receivers are covered, Anderson will have the reliable Joe Jurevicius to pass for first downs. In addition, one of the league's top offensive lines returns intact with tackle Joe Thomas and guard Eric Steinbach dominating the left side for a second year together. Bulldozing running back Jamal Lewis will keep defenses occupied defending both the pass and run, allowing Anderson to take advantage of single coverage with his explosive playmakers.
Backup: Brady Quinn
9. Jay Cutler, Denver: Despite Denver's struggles last season, Cutler still managed to throw for nearly 3,500 yards and 20 touchdowns largely without the services of No. 1 wideout Javon Walker. The good news is that Brandon Marshall emerged to become a legitimate first receiver and a big playmaker. Add in promising Tony Scheffler at tight end and experienced Brandon Stokley as a third receiver, and Cutler will have enough viable targets to complete throws downfield. Denver's running game promises to be dynamic and provides another explosive playmaker for Cutler. The strong-armed signal-caller will only improve his judgment and accuracy after enduring his first full season of hard knocks.
Backup: Patrick Ramsey
10. Eli Manning, New York Giants: This Super Bowl MVP still has ways to go to be a hero in the fantasy world, but he's built a solid foundation for future stats success. He's thrown for 24, 24 and 23 touchdowns in the last three seasons, but managed only 3,336 yards for the league's 12th most last year. Disturbingly, he had the league's most interceptions (20) last season, but owns the skills and vision to be a proficient fantasy passer. A healthy Plaxico Burress will help greatly with his passing yardage, along with stability at tight end. In his favor, he's durable after he's started every game in the past three seasons. Like David Tyree's great catch, Manning will just need more receivers to step up and catch those passes.
Backup: David Carr
11. Philip Rivers, San Diego: This outspoken, self-assured signal caller has the boisterous confidence and skills to throw for significant passing stats after his game matured in the playoffs. Given a No. 1 wideout in Chris Chambers as a deep threat, Rivers can throw to top tight end Antonio Gates across the middle. Throw in Vincent Jackson as another deep threat, and Rivers has a trio of explosive targets. Since defenses must focus on stopping the dominant LaDainian Tomlinson, they are vulnerable to big passing days by Rivers. Entering his third full season, he's ready to take the next step in fantasy as a weekly starting quarterback.
Backup: Billy Volek
12. Marc Bulger, St. Louis: His durability has come into question after he's missed 12 games in the past three seasons, including four last year. What may be more disconcerting is the collapse of the offensive line and decline of the receiving corps. Whether both units rebound is questionable as the offseason upgrades have been too few. However, Bulger is only two years removed from passing for 4,301 yards and 24 touchdowns in 2006. There may still be hope for owners risking a comeback for the talented but fragile quarterback as a starter.
Backup: Trent Green
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| Jacksonville's David Garrard owns the poise and skills to be a fantasy starting quarterback. (Jim McIsaac / Getty Images) |
13. David Garrard, Jacksonville: He emerged in the season's second half last year, finishing with nine touchdown passes in the last four contests played. His poise in the playoffs indicates he has a bright future. The acquisition of an explosive playmaker in wide receiver Jerry Porter will give Garrard his best No. 1 target yet. Surrounded by a strong offensive line and a potent running back duo of Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew, Garrard is in a position for more success. However, indicative of Jacksonville's conservative offense, Garrard has never recorded a 300-yard passing game. He owns the skills and acumen to be a fantasy starter and will be productive as long as he's throwing touchdowns.
Backup: Cleo Lemon
14. Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia: His production declined considerably last year after a remarkable first 10 games of the 2006 season. He failed to throw for multiple scores in 11 of his 14 games, relegating him to the fantasy bench for the first time since he was a rookie in 1999. What is equally, if not more worrisome, is his health. He's missed 15 games in the past three seasons, two ended by injuries. He's too much of an injury risk to draft as a starter, especially coupled with his regressing production. Draft him later as a reserve. Assuming good health and his receivers improve, he's a bounce-back candidate to start in fantasy again.
Backups: A.J. Feeley, Kevin Kolb
15. Jon Kitna, Detroit: He's passed for 4,000 yards two years in a row, but the departure of Mike Martz spells doom for his fantasy stats. Expect the Lions to shift from a pass-happy offense to a conservative, run-oriented one that fits coach Rod Marinelli's defense-first approach. In addition, the Lions'porous offensive line allowed Kitna to be sacked the league's most times. However, Kitna will have the services of one of the NFL's top trio of wideouts with Roy Williams, Calvin Johnson and Shaun McDonald. He will still be proficient by passing to the enormously talented Williams and Johnson and has a chance to reach 20 touchdowns by throwing to the dynamic tall duo in the red zone. Still, expect his best fantasy seasons to be behind him.
Backups: Drew Stanton, Dan Orlovsky
16. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay: This former first-round pick learned under Brett Favre for three seasons. He also has the great benefit of playing in an established potent offense that already has a top offensive line, excellent receivers and a strong running game. Even if Rodgers only plays at 80 percent of Favre's production, he will still throw for 3,324 yards and 22 touchdowns. That still merits him as a fantasy backup as the talent thins quickly at quarterback. He showed some mastery of the difficult position when he completed 18-of-26 passes for 201 yards and one touchdown against Dallas in relief of Favre last year. Yet he also has to show he can stay healthy for all 16 games in the rigorous NFL.
Backups: Brian Bohm, Matt Flynn
17. Vince Young, Tennessee: Though he threw for just 2,546 yards and nine touchdowns last year, his rushing totals of 395 yards and three touchdowns was the equivalent of nearly 10 more passing scores. His receiving corps was bolstered by the addition of Alge Crumpler, but he lacks a star No. 1 wideout who can make the tough catch in traffic and be a reliable, consistent target at any point in the game. To his benefit, Young has a strong offensive line to give him ample protection and enough time to make his reads. He will only become better with more experience, but he remains a fantasy backup until he can produce consistent, noteworthy passing outputs.
Backup: Kerry Collins
18. Jake Delhomme, Carolina: His best fantasy days reside in the past instead of the future. He's also a big injury risk after playing only three games last year. He once threw for 3,886 yards and 29 touchdowns in 2004, but Carolina must receive better production from the running backs and receivers for him to reach those marks again. Muhsin Muhammad and D.J. Hackett offer promise to be competent wideouts next to Steve Smith, but both have pressing questions of age and durability, respectively.
Backups: Matt Moore, Brett Basanez
19. Matt Leinart, Arizona: This outspoken, brash quarterback has shown flashes of brilliance, throwing for a rookie single-game record of 405 yards in 2006. However, injuries have ended his first two seasons early. He separated his throwing shoulder in Week 16 of his rookie year and broke his left collarbone last year to miss the final 11 games. On the plus side, it's easier to accumulate significant yardage totals passing to the dynamic duo of Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. If he wins the starting job entering the season, his stock jumps greatly with the potential to start in fantasy. However, his fragility may curtail his season early once again.
Backup: Kurt Warner
20. Kurt Warner, Arizona: Of course, if Warner is Arizona's starting quarterback to start the season, he becomes a fantasy starter. But the financial and long-term commitment to Leinart may force Warner to the bench early. In addition, Warner is fragile, having missed 44 games from 2002-06. But Leinart has also shown to be injury-prone early in his career, missing 12 games in two years. Still, if Warner plays, he will be throwing to one of the league's top duos in Fitzgerald and Boldin. Warner had four 300-yard passing days in the last six games, including a 484-yard day against San Francisco. He also finished the season with four straight three-touchdown passing games. So his ceiling is high if given the chance. He may not finish with the high passing totals of a fantasy starter, but he can offer starter's value by points per game.
Backup: Matt Leinart
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| Minnesota's Tavaris Jackson is aiming to improve with a bolstered receiving group and more experience. (Doug Pensinger / Getty Images) |
21. Tavaris Jackson, Minnesota: While he failed to even reach 2,000 yards and double-digit touchdowns in passing, Jackson had one of the league's worst receiving groups. Though he was expensive, free-agent acquisition Bernard Berrian is an immediate upgrade and provides Jackson with his first viable No. 1 receiver. He's an excellent deep threat and will have numerous chances to outrun single coverage on long throws for touchdowns, taking advantage of Jackson's strong arm. In addition, a potent running attack led by wondrously talented Adrian Peterson will force safeties to help defend the run instead of the pass. If Jackson can mature quickly and make decisive, quality throws, he can emerge as a strong sleeper.
Backups: Gus Frerotte, John David Booty
22. Jeff Garcia, Tampa Bay: Though he led Tampa Bay to the playoffs, Garcia was largely unremarkable as a fantasy quarterback. He passed for just 2,440 yards and 13 touchdowns last year, hardly stats worthy of a place in the starting lineup. In addition, Garcia has only one legitimate wideout, Joey Galloway. Worse yet, this deep threat is already 36 and is a concern to slow down. Garcia will be helped by a strong group of running backs, but his lack of proven, quality wideouts will be his biggest downfall.
Backups: Brian Griese, Luke McCown
23. Matt Schaub, Houston: While he can produce passing games of 300 yards or multiple scores, they are too few and far. Moreover, he's been bitten by the injury bug in his first season as a starter, missing 11 games. What bodes well for his future is star No. 1 wideout and gamebreaker Andre Johnson. He also has other quality receivers, but needs to be supported by a better running game. Currently, too many questions envelope Schaub before he can become a legitimate fantasy starter.
Backup: Sage Rosenfels, Quinn Gray
24. Jason Campbell, Washington: After struggling in his first two seasons with Al Saunders' reputed 700-page playbook, Campbell must learn another system in only his third season. Washington's new coach Jim Zorn and Campbell will be working with a disappointing group of wideouts led by an inconsistent Santana Moss. The running game remains sound with Clinton Portis leading the way, but Campbell has too many obstacles blocking his path to fantasy success next season.
Backup: Todd Collins
25. Kellen Clemens, New York Jets: Despite riding the wave of public momentum, Clemens disappointed in his first season of extensive playing time. He surpassed 250 yards just twice and failed to throw for multiple scores in eight starts. Boding well for his future, though, is the talented receiving duo of Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery. Free-agent addition of All-Pro guard Alan Faneca bolsters the young offensive line, helping improve the prospects of the Jets' dismal running game. Still, Clemens has yet to show he can compile big passing days, so he's better left undrafted until those days arrive.
Backups: Chad Pennington, Erik Ainge
26. JaMarcus Russell, Oakland: He's very raw but has the enormous talent to make an impact in the fantasy world. New acquisition Javon Walker becomes paired with incumbent Ronald Curry, offering two talented targets for Russell in his second season. However, his mechanics must improve from his rookie year to provide a realistic chance of producing proficient passing days. Yet Russell's running ability will be a bonus for fantasy owners if he can achieve competent passing days.
Backup: Andrew Walter
27. Trent Edwards, Buffalo: He only reached 200 passing yards twice and went scoreless in seven of 10 games. Coach Dick Jauron isn't known for producing prodigious passing attacks. Instead, he relies heavily on running, espouses a turnover-free passing game and promotes a stiff defense to keep the games low scoring. Outside of Lee Evans, Buffalo's veteran receivers are unspectacular and offer little big-play ability. Better to let Edwards show first if he can pass for big passing days before spending a pick.
Backup: J.P. Losman
28. Alex Smith, San Francisco: Entering his third season, Smith was full of promise and ready to take the next step. But his play collapsed, and he battled injuries before his season ended with a separated shoulder after playing in only seven games. Now pass-happy Mike Martz has entered the picture, and the 49ers' offense could be revitalized. Still, Smith must win the starting job first, then work with an underwhelming group of wideouts. Acquisition Isaac Bruce adds experience, but the rest of the receivers are unproven. Even multi-talented tight end and former first-rounder Vernon Davis has disappointed. If Smith fixes his mechanics and receives better protection, he could be a waiver-wire find after the season starts.
Backup: Shaun Hill
29. Brodie Croyle, Kansas City: He reached 200 yards and recorded multiple touchdowns only once last year. He has to progress quickly to become a fantasy factor. In his favor, Croyle can pass to the NFL's most proficient tight end in history (Tony Gonzalez) and last year's top rookie wide receiver (Dwayne Bowe). Running back Larry Johnson is also a dangerous receiver. But he'll need to be protected by a rebuilt offensive line and learn quickly to compensate for last year's shortcomings.
Backup: Damon Huard
30. Rex Grossman, Chicago: He shined for a part of 2006 when he passed for 18 touchdowns in seven games. But he started last season continuing his woes by throwing six interceptions with just one touchdown in the first three games. Now he's had his starting two receivers, Bernard Berrian and Muhsin Muhammad, taken away without any strong, veteran replacements returning. He'll have to hope that at least one of free-agent acquisitions Marty Booker and Brandon Lloyd can emerge and produce like a No. 1 receiver. Until he performs admirably again, Grossman will remain waiver-wire fodder.
Backup: Kyle Orton
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