Projected rush TD leaders
Of course, we're also going to keep a close eye on a number of cities to determine the lead running back and track the whereabouts of the heretofore unsigned free agents of fantasy glory days past. OK. Cedric Benson didn't deliver many thrills in his three years in Chicago.
Perhaps no position on the fantasy roster will frustrate owners more than that of running back. Between committee situations, specialist roles ("vultures," anyone?) and the usual spate of injuries, new heroes arrive nearly weekly. I mean, how many people (except for you all-Packer owners) drafted Ryan Grant and didn't win the waivers sweepstakes for his services?
This year will be no different. New superstars will emerge and become household names. Until they put on the pads, let's review the known commodities and project the rushing touchdown leaders.
1. LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego
Tomlinson has ranked inside the top 10 in this category in each of his seven NFL seasons. He's led the pack in three of the past four seasons (third in 2005), as he possesses an amazing ability to avoid lengthy injury issues despite a heavy weekly workload. The change in his blocking block might have some impact, but I believe it's been a bit overblown. Now, I don't expect Tomlinson to approach his ridiculous 2006 output (28 touchdowns), but he's averaged 14.5 touchdowns per year in his six non-record breaking seasons. The No. 1 player on my board will light up the scoreboard frequently in 2008.
2007 Total: 15 touchdowns
Projected 2008 Total: 18 touchdowns
2. Marion Barber III, Dallas
The standing nickname for Barber is "The Barbarian." I'm going to swipe a moniker often used by a former colleague of mine in the FOX offices and dub him "The Beast." He wears a blue jersey sometimes, so it fits nicely. There's no denying the explosiveness of this offense, and I fully expect Barber to meet and surpass his stellar 2007 totals. The departure of Julius Jones leaves Barber as the primary back (as Felix Jones learns pro blocking, although he'll definitely play a sizable role) in addition to his coveted "vulture" role. We've seen him bounce off of tacklers with great regularity, and more touches yields more big runs to paydirt.
2007 Total: 10 touchdowns
Projected 2008 Total: 14 touchdowns
3. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota
What else needs to be said? In his mind-boggling rookie year, Peterson demonstrated that he's a home run threat on every touch. He'll run behind a tremendous offensive line, and should receive additional support from Tarvaris Jackson and the passing game. Fantasy owners will need to be patient, as we'll see a few smallish efforts akin to his final games along the way. I have no doubts that he'll more than make up for those efforts with some monster games fueled by huge breakout runs. Owners will also need to deal with the specter of Chester Taylor, who will also pilfer his fair share of the workload and touchdowns (he scored seven last year).
2007 Total: 12 touchdowns
Projected 2008 Total: 13 touchdowns
4. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville
The workload split in the Jacksonville backfield between Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor is well-established. Taylor receives a sizable share of the workload, but it's Jones-Drew's quick feet and ability to plow over defenders (pick a linebacker, any linebacker) that makes this stout running back a fantasy favorite. The Jacksonville offense runs efficiently under David Garrard, and if anything, should be more potent in 2008 with the acquisition of new receiving help. Jones-Drew has scored 22 rushing touchdowns in his first two NFL seasons and will undoubtedly challenge his 11-touchdown average this season.
2007 Total: 9 touchdowns
Projected 2008 Total: 12 touchdowns
5t. Joseph Addai, Indianapolis
Addai's yardage totals will often be stifled while competing with the mighty right arm of Peyton Manning, but he was one of the game's most effective options near the goal line last season. He scored in 10 of the 15 games in which he appeared last season including three multi-touchdown efforts. With Marvin Harrison's knee a lingering concern and receiver Anthony Gonzalez still in the learning curve, I suspect that Addai will receive a heavier workload this year (yes, he'll cede some reps to the returning Dominic Rhodes). There will be days where the touchdown glory belongs exclusively to Manning and his receivers, but Addai will still amass enough goal-line touches to rank among the leaders in the efficient Indianapolis attack.
2007 Total: 12 touchdowns
Projected 2008 Total: 11 touchdowns
5t. Clinton Portis, Washington
We're always curious to see which of Portis's alter egos will arrive for the post-game interview, but there's no question about which powerhouse runner will arrive for a heavy workload when the game kicks off. Portis was the anchor in an inconsistent Washington offense last year, producing the fourth double-digit touchdown season of his career (11). The Redskins have improved their receiving corps, which should allow Jason Campbell to grow into his role and thereby produce bigger lanes for Portis. He's eccentric and some may fear injury concerns, but Portis delivers big results.
2007 Total: 11 touchdowns
Projected 2008 Total: 11 touchdowns
5t. Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants
There are many questions facing the Giants as we steamroll toward training camp. One of the main questions concerns the backfield and how Tom Coughlin will split responsibilities this season. Derrick Ward is back from injury, and Ahmad Bradshaw was brilliant late in the regular season and in the playoffs. What about the big fella? Can Jacobs stay healthy? Jacobs performed spectacularly last season when available, averaging five yards per carry in 11 games and scoring three touchdowns in the final two regular season contests. I expect Jacobs to see a significant workload (when available) and ample work at the goal line. Remember, he scored nine touchdowns (10th in the NFL) in 2006.
2007 Total: 4 touchdowns
Projected 2008 Total: 11 touchdowns
8t. Larry Johnson, Kansas City
Johnson would just as soon forget the 2007 season. Just when the offensive line started creating holes for him to run through , he went down for the year with a foot injury. Johnson is back and ready to go, and it appears that the offensive line has improved immediately with rookie Branden Albert working at left tackle. According to all reports, Johnson is experiencing no discomfort from the foot injury and that will be ready for camp. Some fantasy owners may discount Johnson after last year's debacle. Don't be that owner. There's some talent in this unit, and Johnson is only one year removed from his second straight 1,750-yard season. Johnson scored 37 rushing touchdowns during the 2005 and 2006 seasons. I'm not suggesting a trip to the "Wayback Machine" and such gaudy totals is in the offing, but a return to double-digit touchdowns is to be expected barring a setback.
2007 Total: 3 touchdowns
Projected 2008 Total: 10 touchdowns
8t. Ryan Grant, Green Bay
How's that for a breakthrough half-season? Grant worked on the practice squad for the Giants for two years and was buried on the depth chart in Green Bay before a rash of injuries afforded him the opportunity to shine. With just seven starts in the second half of the season, Grant nearly rushed for 1,000 yards and scored eight touchdowns including a streak of six straight games to close the year. He'll become the focal point of the offense as the team works to get Aaron Rodgers acclimated to his starting role. I'm somewhat concerned about the eight-man fronts he'll see early in the year, but this team has enough weapons in the receiving corps to allow Rodgers to find success downfield field and open things up on the ground.
2007 Total: 8 touchdowns
Projected 2008 Total: 10 touchdowns
8t. Frank Gore, San Francisco
There are certainly questions about the San Francisco offense heading into 2008, but there's no denying the abilities of Gore out of the backfield. I'm most intrigued to watch Gore operate in Mike Martz's spread out attack. He compares well to former Martz pupil Marshall Faulk, and that seemed to work out pretty well. The infusion of new talent at wide receiver will aid Alex Smith's (or Shaun Hill's) development, further boosting Gore's value. His previous career mark is eight touchdowns, but I anticipate a double-digit scoring barrage in the offing.
2007 Total: 5 touchdowns
Projected 2008 Total: 10 touchdowns
11t. Matt Forte, Chicago
The release of troubled tailback Cedric Benson thrusts Forte into the Chicago spotlight. In an offense devoid of fantasy talent (save tight end Greg Olsen as a plug-and-play tight end and those rolling the dice on Devin Hester), Forte stands tall as a potentially huge impact fantasy player. The 6-foot-1, 224-pound running back scored 39 touchdowns during his career at Tulane and will be the focal point of this offense. You can put him in the left column, the ever-shorter list of primary backs who gets to take care of his own business at the goal line.
2007 Total: College
Projected 2008 Total: 9 touchdowns
11t. Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia
With Donovan McNabb's health routinely under suspicion, Westbrook has assumed a much larger role in Andy Reid's offense during the past two seasons. Westbrook has posted his top two NFL seasons, parlaying those extra touches into double-digit touchdown totals (rushing and receiving combined). He's rushed for seven touchdowns in back-to-back seasons. I expect Wesbrook's role to be similar to that of last season when he truly became a workhorse for this team, even if McNabb and all of his receivers are healthy. Westbrook will provide some anxious moments with his frequent appearances on the injury report, but he usually rallies brilliantly come kickoff.
2007 Total: 7 touchdowns
Projected 2008 Total: 9 touchdowns
13t. Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh
I have absolutely zero doubt that Bruce Arians's offense is going to be one of the most intriguing and high-powered units in the game this season. Ben Roethlisberger will continue his strong play under center with a vast array of receiving options, but make no mistake, the Steelers will still be hammering opponents on the ground. Willie Parker is coming off of a broken leg, and Najeh Davenport was released, meaning that Mendenhall will assume much of the short yardage and goal-line work. Parker's still the starter and will pile up yardage, but I believe that the former Illinois star will get the glory touches.
2007 Total: College
Projected 2008 Total: 8 touchdowns
13t. Ronnie Brown, Miami
The Dolphins weren't going to be good whether Brown played out the season or not, but it would have been interesting to watch him try to carry his early-season success through the fall. Brown was dominating prior to his injury, and I'm now most interested in charting his progress this summer. The Dolphins restructured the offensive line and used the No. 1 pick to take Jake Long. He'll help to anchor the new-look Miami offense. I'm not optimistic that there's a huge overall improvement from last year in the standings, but Brown will find his way to the house.
2007 Total: 4 touchdowns
Projected 2008 Total: 8 touchdowns
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