Second-round strategy: Draft a RB or WR?

by John Juhasz

John is an editor for the FOXSports.com fantasy group. Check out his blog and please don't be shy when leaving questions or comments.


Updated: July 25, 2008, 11:51 AM EST 6 comments

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I looked at both sides of the Tom Brady vs. a running back debate for the first round of a draft, and now I'll focus my attention on what to do in the next round.

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As I mentioned before, it's crucial you spend at least one of your first two picks on a running back. Yes, I realize all 32 NFL teams have "starters" you can choose from and two rounds of a standard draft only equals 24 picks. But more and more teams are beginning to utilize the two-back system without a clear-cut No. 1 back. If you wait around too long, you'll basically end up starting two half-RB1s at best every week. Lots of luck if you find yourself in that situation.

If you didn't select a running back, then I'll assume you addressed your quarterback slot by choosing Tom Brady, Peyton Manning or Tony Romo since picking anyone else in the first round wouldn't make any sense. The good news is there are still plenty of teams who have a featured back that gets the lion's share of carries (and fantasy production). Let's find out where they are:

AFC East

• Buffalo: Marshawn Lynch

• Miami: Ronnie Brown

• New England: Laurence Maroney

• New York: Thomas Jones (gets lots of yards, although he's pretty close to a split situation with Leon Washington)

AFC North

• Baltimore: Willis McGahee (although I have serious concerns about the Ravens offense in '08)

• Cincinnati: Rudi Johnson (I'm curious how the team will use Kenny Watson this year)

• Cleveland: Jamal Lewis

• Pittsburgh: Willie Parker (be careful here: Rashard Mendenhall will work his way into the offense)

AFC South

• Indianapolis: Joseph Addai, and frankly, there's no need to waste any bandwith on any other team in the South. Addai is the only clear-cut No. 1 in this entire division. Every other team will probably use the split back system all year long.

AFC West

• Denver: If anyone says they've figured Mike Shanahan out, they're lying.

• Kansas City: Larry Johnson is the No. 1, but I can't imagine him regaining his dominant form.

• Oakland: Darren McFadden will probably win the job, but Justin Fargas is too good not to get used.

• San Diego: If you really need an explanation here, may I suggest knitting as a different hobby choice?

NFC East

• Dallas: Marion Barber is a solid late first-round pick even though he'll share the load with Felix Jones.

• New York: They thrived on the RB-by-committee last year, and it won them a Super Bowl. Gee, which way do you think they'll go this year?

• Philadelphia: Brian Westbrook is a legit top-five selection.

• Washington: Clinton Portis found his stride last season. Has Ladell Betts been rendered obsolete?

NFC North

• Chicago: Headed for splitsville most likely since their former RB1 couldn't keep out of trouble.

• Detroit: Don't think they're ready to completely trust a rookie (Kevin Smith). This situation is up in the air.

• Green Bay: Ryan Grant proved himself to be a legit No. 1, but I'll feel more comfortable about him when I see him do it again.

• Minnesota: Call it a split if it makes you feel better, but Adrian Peterson probably won't make it out of the top five of more than one percent of the drafts out there.

NFC South

• Atlanta: A split system, and the whole organization is a disaster at the moment.

• Carolina: Jonathan Stewart is intriguing, but they're not going to forget about DeAngelo Williams. Split.

• New Orleans: A rare split system where both backs will have value. Reggie Bush should break out of his funk, and Deuce McAllister is my early pick for fantasy comeback player of the year.

• Tampa Bay: Warrick Dunn and Earnest Graham will both get carries. Too much uncertainty here.

NFC West

• Arizona: Edgerrin James is the only legit option the team really has.

• San Francisco: I wouldn't worry about DeShaun Foster too much. Frank Gore is an easy top-10 pick.

• St. Louis: Steven Jackson has a shot at being the most productive fantasy back in the league.

• Seattle: I'm still not sure how things will shake out after they released a legend, but Julius Jones seems to have a leg up so far. Guess we'll see after preseason.

Now, there are maybe five wide receivers out there who are worthy of a second-round pick (but only if you've already taken a running back ... I can't stress this enough). They are (in order): Randy Moss, Braylon Edwards, Larry Fitzgerald, Terrell Owens and Reggie Wayne. That's really it as the next tier of wideouts are third or fourth round choices at best. Assuming you've already taken your running back with your first pick, let's look at the following chart. I would NOT take the receiver listed at the top before any of the running backs listed below him (and, for the sake of reality, assume Tomlinson, Addai, L. Johnson, Gore, Westbrook, Peterson and Jackson are not options since they'll all be off the board before the second round begins).

Second-round strategy: Which RB to draft before WR?
Strategy Randy Moss Braylon Edwards Larry Fitzgerald Terrell Owens Reggie Wayne
Draft first: Clinton Portis Portis Portis Portis Portis
Draft first:     Edgerrin James James James
Draft first:       Marion Barber Barber

There you have it. Simple enough, right? Any questions or comments? E-mail me or leave feedback.

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