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RB battles: Carolina's Williams looks sharp
That's why it's pointless to review a situation like that of the Giants, for example. Even though Brandon Jacobs is sort of their featured back, Derrick Ward and Ahmad Bradshaw should still get enough carries throughout the season for this to be considered a running back by committee deal. After all, the Giants rode that system all the way to the Super Bowl last year. Tom Coughlin is not the type to mess with success.
I'll try to stick to camps where almost every back I discuss has a legit shot at winning the No. 1 role. So take a break from your Madden '09 marathons and leave me some feedback below. I'll begin my review in Atlanta, whose team has become my weekly punching bag of late.
Michael Turner vs. Jerious Norwood, Atlanta
This team just can't catch a break, can they? I already discussed their issues at quarterback, and with Alge Crumpler now gone, is there even one player on this offense who other coaches look at and say, "Wow, I wish I had that guy in my starting lineup!"? I don't see any. Not even Turner fits that mold since he's still relatively unproven.
When Turner had the chance to play in San Diego, he did produce. But it remains to be seen whether he can handle the rigors and pounding over the course of an entire season. Plus, Atlanta's coaching staff seems to like Norwood's willingness to play whatever role he's asked. They won't simply cast him aside.
Prediction: The Falcons promised Turner a big time role in their offense, but coach Mike Smith is committed enough to the run that I think we'll see a 70-30 split in favor of Turner, who is probably an RB3 at best until further notice.
**8/21 update**: Likely decided
Analysis: Turner rushed for 114 yards on four carries this past Saturday against the Colts, and he did it behind a crappy offensive line. Yeah, I'd say the coaches know which guy the want to go with.
DeAngelo Williams vs. Jonathan Stewart, Carolina
Stewart's recent toe injury couldn't have come at a worse time. He sat on the sidelines in street clothes and watched Williams start Carolina's first preseason game and finish with nine carries for 55 yards and two scores. Uh, oh. Not good news for the explosive rookie from Oregon.
Williams sort of backed up DeShaun Foster for a couple years in Carolina, and it's now probably be Stewart's turn to do that for a little while. There's no timetable on Stwewart's return, although he may actually play against the Eagles this week. Coach John Fox says they're going to take a "cautious" approach in bringing him back, which loosely traslates to "Williams is my guy as of now."
Prediction: Williams starts the season as the featured back, but Stewart will see maybe 30 percent of the carries.
**8/21 update**: Likely decided
Analysis: Williams has emerged as a team leader while Stewart continues to struggle with injuries and miss time. That combination could be too much for a rookie to overtake the starting role from a third-year player.
Matt Forte vs. Kevin Jones vs. Adrian Peterson
Aye, eye eye. For all their woes at quarterback, the Bears frankly aren't any closer to a long-term solution at running back (and in fact, they don't even have a true No. 1 wideout on their roster). I hope for the sake of the fans that the Cubs play deep into October, because watching this offense function could be rather painful.
Is there a more snake-bitten guy in the league than Jones? He was cut from the Lions for being too injury-prone, and now reports exist which state he could start the season on the PUP list, thus making himself unavailable for the first six games of the season. The Bears would also like for Jones to drop some weight, so feel free to scratch him off this consideration list.
Prediction: Not many rookies get the chance to start right away, but if Jones goes on the PUP list, then there's no need to pencil Forte in as the starter; you can do it with non-erasable magic marker. Peterson is nothing more than a career backup with very little fantasy value. Matt, you're on stage in five minutes!
**8/21 update**/i>: Likely decided
Analysis: Jones can't seem to shake the injury bug, like, ever. Peterson hasn't really shown he's capable of being a franchise back. That leaves the speedy Forte as the likely candidate to take the job. Watch to see how long he plays against the 49ers this Thursday.
Selvin Young vs. Andre Hall, Denver
Rookie Ryan Torain could miss three months of action after suffering ligament damage in his left elbow at a recent practice. He probably did have a legitimate shot at challenging for the team's featured back role since he averaged 5.4 yards per carry and 94 rushing yards per game in college.
Hall was Denver's leading rusher with 43 yards from eight carries in a recent preseason game at Houston.
Prediction: Trying to factor in Mike Shanahan's reasoning into this projection is like trying to pinpoint the thinking behind chaos theory. My guess is Young has the edge for now, but that could change more than once before you finish reading this article.
**8/21 update**: Likely decided
Analysis: In 11 of Shanahan's 13 seasons as head coach in Denver, the Broncos have produced at least one 1,000-yard rusher. Young seems to be his starter for now, but who knows what Shanahan is thinking on a weekly basis.
Tatum Bell vs. Kevin Smith vs. Brian Calhoun, Detroit
Bell hasn't been playing well with the first team and was actually demoted to the second team after a dismal opener, but Smith has looked comfortable from the get-go. He rushed for 22 yards on eight carries in his first preseason game, and I expect he'll continue to get the bulk of reps.Calhoun is coming back from a knee injury and says he feels good, but he's never shown he's capable of being a full-time back.
Prediction: If Smith was a sleeper before, he shouldn't be any longer. Most reports seem to hint he's won the starting job and could evolve into a pretty decent fantasy RB2 if things fall into place.
**8/21 update**: Likely decided
Analysis: The Lions continue to be impressed with Smith's work ethic and attitude. He started ahead of Bell in their most recent preseason game, and I think it's a solid bet you'll see the same from him on opening day.
Darren McFadden vs. Justin Fargas vs. Michael Bush, Oakland
Most teams who draft top-five picks look to give those guys playing time right away (unless they're a quarterback being groomed). Why? Well, unless they traded their way into the top five, they were lousy last season and need to infuse better talent if they want to hang onto their jobs. With all the mega-contracts the Raiders have on the books though, who knows what Crazy Al is thinking.
Now for the good news. Coach Lane Kiffin's offense is built around a sound rushing attack, and he openly declared recently that he's not confident in his first team offense's ability to move the ball through the air. He's going to have to figure out how to throw the ball at some point and have a more balanced attack, but for now, why not cater your attack to your strengths? Oakland ran the ball far better than they passed it in its first exhibition game against the Niners. Look for that trend to continue well into the regular season.
Prediction: McFadden will be the featured back, but Fargas may see 25 percent of the total snaps. Bush will probably earn a living getting goal-line carries.
8/21 Status: Likely decided
Analysis: McFadden is proving to be too good for a 50-50 split system. My guess is he'll get around 70 percent of the reps with Fargas getting the others and, as mentioned above, Bush pounding them in from near the goal-line.
Julius Jones vs. Maurice Morris vs. T.J. Duckett, Seattle
Of the three backs above, Jones could be the most versatile. That will come in handy with wideout Bobby Engram on the sidelines for quite some time. I expect all three of these guys to see action if the Seahawks decide to rely less on the pass, and they'll really enjoy running behind some of the studs this team has on their offensive line.Jones was looking for a fresh start after a tumultuous ride in Dallas.
Prediction: Jones emerges as the No. 1 relatively quickly and becomes a decent RB2 option in most league formats. Duckett should get most of the goal-line blasts while Morris will play the same role he played behind Shaun Alexander.
8/21 update: Likely decided
Analysis: Funny, all the news you see on Jones is how his departure will impact Dallas' running game instead of Seattle's. This unit has platoon written all over it, with Jones probably getting around 60 percent of the reps under center. He should wind up being a solid RB2 for most league formats out there.
LenDale White vs. Chris Johnson vs. Chris Henry, Tennessee
Tennessee's passing attack leaves a lot to be desired, so it'll focus on gaining yards on the ground this year. Did you see Johnson's awesome 66-yard run in their first preseason game against the Rams? That kind of explosiveness is exactly what this offense sorely needed. Johnson has some lofty goals heading into the season (like winning rookie of the year), and who's to doubt him if he can rip off runs like that regularly?Prediction: Jeff Fisher announced the Titans will start the season with a committee approach, but I still think Johnson will get the most carries of anyone more often than not. He's just too good compared to what else they have. Like I told you in my recent sleepers column, I'm not going to wait very long to take him off the board on draft day.
8/21 update: Likely decided
Analysis: Call this a platoon unit if you want, but if you watched the Titans at all in 2007, I just can't believe anyone out there actually thinks White will outperform Johnson this year. Johnson has decent potential as an RB2 now, but I think he's the prototypical sleeper who has a great year and skyrockets up draft boards to become a top-10 pick for next year.
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