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Spinning my wheels: A Biffle two for two?
Fantasy Auto Racing
Finally, Kyle Busch ran wild during the regular season. How does he respond to a disappointing showing at New Hampshire?
Let's set the field for this week's Camping World RV 400 presented by AAA.
Track Info
The one-mile oval sports 24-degree banking and allows cars to hit incredible speeds (the qualifying record is 161.52 mph). As such, drivers and pit crews must be especially cognizant of engine wear. While you review driver data to pick your squad, you'll note that engine woes and accidents pervade the scene.
The speed of the track provides great action coming out of the long, sweeping turns, but a car that gets loose can wipeout a good portion of the field in a hurry. This is a track where it pays to be the proper combination of lucky and good.
History
There have been nine consecutive different race winners, the longest such streak at the track. Since 2004, no driver's been able to win twice at Dover. The Dover races had been swept by the same driver three times earlier in the decade. Stewart won both events in 2000. Jimmie Johnson managed the feat in 2002, only to be matched the following year by Ryan Newman (2003).
Thirty-one different drivers have won a race at the track, and 18 have scored multiple wins. Gordon and Mark Martin lead the pack with four victories. Martin Truex, Jr. and Carl Edwards joined the list of winners last year, and Kyle Busch claimed one of his eight regular season victories here in June.
Newman was the last pole sitter to win a race, having achieved the feat in 2003. Here's one final statistical oddity. Both 2006 race winners started in the 19th position.
Watch for Biffle to bring a top effort to the track this weekend. He's the active leader in a number of important statistical breakdowns at Dover.
The Contenders
Jeff Gordon
Gordon's produced four consecutive top-15 finishes and opened the Chase with a solid, albeit unspectacular, 14th-place effort. Now, he looks to get back on track at Dover, where he's raced to four victories in the past. He owns 19 top-10 finishes in 31 career starts at the venue and currently possesses a five-race streak of top 15s.
Carl Edwards
Edwards opened the Chase, as you might have expected, with another top-tier effort, a third-place run at New Hampshire. He's among the leaders on the board for Dover too, having five top 10s in his eight career rides. He's also never finished worse than 18th. During the past three years, he's averaged a 10.4-position running slot.
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| Mark Martin has been driving really well, when he decides to drive, that is. (Doug Pensinger / Getty Images) |
Mark Martin
Martin's picked his spots well this season, and he's back in the mix for this week's Dover run as part of the Chase. He's raced to three consecutive top 10s and nine in his 18 starts. I anticipate another strong run from him this week at Dover, where he's raced to eight top 15s and seven top 10s in his past nine starts. He's claimed victory here on four occasions, with 27 top 10s in his 44 career starts, while averaging a 13th-place finish.
Greg Biffle
Biffle! The "Fantasy FIX" favorite opened the Chase with a win, his eighth top-15 finish in his past nine starts. He's a top-notch selection for fantasy participants this week at Dover and will be the anchor of my squad. In the past three years, he's averaged a circuit-best 6.3-position running slot while averaging a 5.4-position finish. He's generated eight consecutive top-15 finishes including a current streak of five straight top 10s. He also won here in 2005.
Kyle Busch
Busch raced from the head of the pack at New Hampshire, but it wasn't enough to keep him from falling to a disappointing 34th-place finish in the Chase opener. Back-to-back rough outings (he'd finished 15th the week before) have him and his team seeking to plug the holes and get back on track at Dover, which is a welcome sight for this squad, as Busch has experienced an unbelievable stretch here. He's raced to five top-five finishes in his seven career starts at Dover, including two second-place finishes and a victory here earlier this season. He's averaged a strong 11.9-position running slot during the past three years. I look for a big rebound effort this weekend.
Kevin Harvick
Harvick extended his streak of top-10 performances to seven with a strong 10th-place finish at New Hampshire. Despite the hot streak, he's a difficult play for fantasy participants this weekend. He's produced only five top 10s in his 15 career starts at Dover and has finished 20th or worse in four consecutive events. In fact, he's raced inside the top 15 only once in his past eight starts, a mighty third-place finish in 2006. Hold him back for another run.
Jeff Burton
Following a rough patch down the stretch, Burton and his team have pulled together for the start of the 10-race sprint to the title. He earned his second straight top-10 finish at New Hampshire, a fourth-place finish that marked his best run since early June. He's a strong bet for a big run this weekend, as he's generated seven straight top-12 finishes at the track, including four top 10s. His lone win at Dover came in September of 2006.
Tony Stewart
Stewart might be frustrated by the fact he hasn't won a race this season, but he's primed for a huge run in the Chase to close out his relationship with Joe Gibbs Racing. He's produced five top 10s in his past seven starts, including three gut-wrenching runs to second place. Overlook his recent history at Dover. He's produced 12 top 10s in his 19 career starts, with nine top fives and two wins.
Matt Kenseth
Things couldn't have gone worse for Kenseth to open the Chase. The former circuit champion finished 40th in the opener because of an accident, a rough ride following his 39th-place finish the week prior. He'll put an end to this downturn at Dover. He owns 11 top 10s in his 19 career starts at the track, including four of the past five events. He has averaged a phenomenal 6.96-position running slot during the past three years, and I'm banking on him to produce another stellar ride this weekend to get back in the hunt.
Jimmie Johnson
Look out. The two-time defending champion is making his late-season charge. Johnson's raced first, second or third in six of his past nine starts. He's posted three wins and two second-place finishes during this stretch. He'll continue this surge at Dover, where he's claimed eight top 10s and 11 top 15s in his 13 career starts.
Ryan Newman
Newman enters Dover on a bad run, having raced outside of the top 15 in five of his past six starts, including four runs outside of the top 20. Dover's a great spot for a turnaround. He's a three-time champion at the track and has averaged a scintillating 7.5-position qualifying slot during his 13-race career at Dover. He's claimed four poles with 10 top 15s and six top fives.
Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
Earnhardt experienced a rough patch of seven consecutive runs outside of the top 10. He was constantly sneaking around the edges with three top 15s, but he's now ready to make a charge in the Chase. Junior's generated back-to-back top fives and represents a decent play this week at Dover. He owns seven top 10s in his 17 career starts at the track, including nine runs to 16th or better. He's a past champion here while averaging a 16.9-position finish.
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| Martin Truex, Jr. is happy to play spoiler over these next nine races. (Jerry Markland / Getty Images) |
Quick Hits
Martin Truex, Jr.
Truex ended a four-race mini-funk with a strong seventh-place finish at New Hampshire. It's a nice upturn for Truex, who'll be one of the most talked about drivers during the Chase. He's not in the mix for the title, but he'll be among those tagged with the great "spoiler" tag. He's raced to three top 10s in five career Dover starts, including his win in June of 2007. He's averaged a tremendous 11th-position running slot during his career here, and I expect another top-notch effort this weekend. I'm slotting him behind Biffle on my roster.
Kurt Busch
Busch missed the Chase, but he could play the role of spoiler during the 10-race playoff to the title. He's posted back-to-back top-10 finishes, along with a sixth-place finish in the Chase opener at New Hampshire. However, I'm not optimistic he can keep up the pace this weekend at Dover. He owns just four top 10s and seven top 15s in his 16 career starts at the track. His average 10.5-position running spot in the past three years at the track is enticing, but he hasn't been able to finish off his runs.
Clint Bowyer
Bowyer didn't dominate the field during the 2008 regular season, but he effectively kept himself in the game and off the walls. He opened the Chase with a solid 12th-place finish and stands as a solid option this week at Dover. He's twice raced to eighth place finishes with four runs to 17th or better in five career starts at the track. He's averaged a 14th-position running slot during his career at the track, so he gets to the top of the pack to offer fantasy participants a solid run.
Denny Hamlin
Hamlin continued his late-season surge with another top-10 effort at New Hampshire, his sixth top-10 in his past eight starts. He's raced to two top 10s and an 11th in five career starts, although he's finished 38th and 43rd in his past two Dover starts. He led 61 laps here last September before finishing 38th, so don't take the finish at face value.
Kasey Kahne
Kahne's produced an inconsistent 2008 campaign, producing several phenomenal efforts to the front of the pack while seeing several other rides beset by accident and engine woes. He's a tough play this weekend for fantasy participants, as he's produced only one top 10 finish in his nine career Dover starts. Four of his nine Dover starts have ended with accidents, and he's finished inside the top 20 only three times. Sit him down this weekend.
Juan Pablo Montoya
Montoya hasn't experienced that breakthrough season that was anticipated at the start of the campaign. He's generated just three top 10s in 27 starts with just one appearance in his past 11 entries. The No. 42 Ganassi Racing car is a solid fourth option this weekend. He raced 10th here last September, then produced a strong 12th-place finish earlier this season. His recent struggles are a tad disconcerting, but he warrants a look-see.
Longshots
Brian Vickers
Vickers' strong 2008 has crumbled of late with five runs to 20th or worse in his past eight starts. He constitutes a true longshot pick this weekend, as Dover hasn't been kind to him in the past. He owns one top-10 finish in his nine career starts, although he did register a solid 13th here earlier this season.
Bobby Labonte
Labonte finally cracked the top 20 with a 13th-place run at New Hampshire, snapping a six-race streak of second-tier efforts. I serve him up as an option this weekend based on his past successes at the track. However, it's been quite some time since he found the mark at Dover. He's raced into the top 15 only five times in his past 15 Dover starts, with two top 10s.
David Reutimann
Reutimann's been running well of late, picking up two top 10s and four top 15s in his past five starts. As such, he's on the radar for this weekend's run at Dover. He raced 18th here last September and 27th earlier this season. He's a play only if you've exhausted your starts for the big guns, but I just wanted to float his name out there as a fourth roster slot consideration.
My team for this week includes Biffle, Truex, Newman and Jeff Gordon.
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