by Mark Taylor, FOXSports.com

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Jimmie Johnson comes to Homestead with a whopping 141-point lead over Carl Edwards in the championship Chase. While he's not clinched the championship just yet, the margin's enough to make an Edwards upset not very likely. Johnson only has to finish 36th or better in Sunday's Ford 400 to clinch the title. Still, it's racing and anything can happen. Johnson could easily run away with his third straight championship or suffer what would be just his second DNF of the season and leave the door open for Edwards to steal the title. That's the reason to tune in on Sunday. History could be made in either scenario.

Since we come to Homestead-Miami Speedway only once a year, we'll need to rely on historical information to a great degree for this Sunday's race. The usual suspects race very well at the South Florida oval, and most of them are Chase drivers. While current hot streaks will play a part in this week's picks, we'll rely heavily on past data to outline the drivers for the last race of the season. Here are the driver stats for the last four races at Homestead.

DRIVER	WINS	TOP 5	TOP 10	AVG FINISH
Greg Biffle	3	3	3	4.0
Matt Kenseth	1	2	3	7.2
Carl Edwards	0	2	3	7.8
Mark Martin	0	1	2	10.0
David Ragan	0	0	1	10.0
Jeff Gordon	0	2	3	10.0
Kevin Harvick	0	1	3	10.5
Denny Hamlin	0	2	2	13.0
Martin Truex, Jr.	0	1	2	13.3
Jimmie Johnson	0	1	3	14.5
Dave Blaney	0	0	1	14.7
Tony Stewart	0	1	1	16.0
Kurt Busch	0	2	2	16.7
Jamie McMurray	0	0	1	18.5
Ryan Newman	0	0	1	19.5

This weekend sets up pretty well if Edwards hopes to steal the championship out from under Johnson. As you can see from the table above, Roush Fenway Racing drivers are absolutely dominant on the oval of Homestead. Roush drivers have won five of the last six races at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Although winless at Miami, Edwards has been statistically strong with a pair of top fives and three top 10s in his four career starts there. If the No. 48 team were to experience a problem, there's little doubt where Edwards will be running on Sunday. The numbers also tell us he'll have lots of support as he should be surrounded by most of his teammates in the front of the pack this weekend. We'll look at the championship contenders, and the non-Chase teams that could finish the season on a good note. We'll give you the drivers you need to dominate the 2008 season finale.

The Contenders

Carl Edwards - Edwards comes to Miami as the steep underdog in the championship picture. He trails Johnson by 141 points and faces little or no chance of winning the title, no matter how the No. 99 team performs. That shouldn't change the focus of this competitive driver. Make no mistake about it, Edwards will be going for Victory Lane this weekend. He knows that what little chance he has of winning the championship depends on it.

Greg Biffle - Biffle hasn't been a regular in victory lane this season with only two wins to his credit. Still, he's had a great rebound season and has finished the schedule strong. HMS presents a good opportunity for Biffle to end the season on a very positive note. He's won three races in a row at Homestead-Miami Speedway from 2004-06 and should have somewhat of a technical advantage on most of the field.

Jimmie Johnson - The 2007 and 2008 Sprint Cup Champion has only to pick up his trophy this weekend at HMS, or so it would seem. Edwards is 141 points behind Johnson coming into the finale, so Johnson needs only a finish of 36th-place or better to clinch the title. Having won three of the last seven races, he's riding a pretty good hot streak entering this weekend. How can you not like the No. 48 team to get their first win at Miami and third straight championship on Sunday?

Matt Kenseth - Kenseth has one more shot at victory lane for the season comes to a close this Sunday afternoon at HMS. This should be a good opportunity for the No. 17 team. Kenseth led 214 laps and won this event one year ago in dominant fashion. We don't expect him to have completely forgotten that day at the track.

Solid Plays

David Ragan - The more we see of Ragan, the more we like this young Roush Fenway driver. He's resilient, and that's a good trait to have as a Sprint Cup competitor. He's been one of the most consistent drivers of the Chase for the Cup with five top 10s in the last seven races. Although he has just one career start (a top-10 finish) at Homestead-Miami Speedway, he makes a solid play in the Ford 400.

Jeff Gordon - Gordon has just one last chance to avoid the tag of a winless season in 2008. While we don't believe he'll be an upset winner on Sunday, we believe the Rainbow Warriors will rebound from their DNF at Phoenix last weekend. He has four top fives and seven top 10s in nine career starts at the South Florida oval.

Denny Hamlin - Hamlin's been overshadowed by Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Kyle Busch this season, but Hamlin and the No. 11 team are showing signs of getting things on the right track heading into next season. He has three top fives in his last four races, and Hamlin loves to race at Homestead. He has a pair of third-place finishes in his last two races at Miami.

Kevin Harvick - Harvick and the No. 29 team seem to have found their legs in the last few races of the Chase. He has three top 10s in the last four races, and the team seems to be putting things together for a championship run in 2009. He's been particularly good at HMS over his career. He has five top 10s in seven starts at the facility entering this weekend's Ford 400.

Sleepers

Jeff Burton - The No. 31 team's getting things turned around entering this weekend. His top-10 finish at Phoenix snapped a three-race top 10 drought for the team. Burton enters this weekend with four career top 10s at Homestead-Miami Speedway. He started ninth and finished eighth in this event one year ago.

Clint Bowyer - The RCR rising star gave the championship a go each of the last two seasons. Entering this race, Bowyer's eliminated from the championship at 335 points behind leader Jimmie Johnson and in sixth-place overall. However, Bowyer almost certainly has sixth nailed down, and fifth and fourth-place are well within reach in this final race. A top-10 finish could possibly put Bowyer in the top five of the series for a second straight season.

Kurt Busch - Busch has been finding his stride of late. He has three top 10s in his last five races, and he challenged for the win and finished second last week at Phoenix. Busch is a two-time pole winner and one-time race winner at the South Florida oval. He led 17 laps and collected a runner-up finish in this event one year ago, so it's clear he knows how to navigate this oval.

Kyle Busch - The Joe Gibbs Racing dynamo has a pathetic record at HMS. In three career starts at Homestead, he's never finished better than 20th and has one DNF to his credit. However, the No. 18 team is running much better lately, and we expect them to carry this momentum to a top-10 finish in Sunday's Ford 400.

Jamie McMurray - McMurray's another hot driver to watch closely this weekend. His Roush Fenway Racing affiliation should pay big dividends at this track. He has four top 10s in the last five races and ran well at Homestead earlier in his career. The No. 26 team should be in top 10 form again this weekend.

A.J. Allmendinger - Since taking over the driving duties of the No. 10 GEM Dodge, Allmendinger's been a nice surprise. He has finishes of 15th, 14th, 26th and 16th in those races for Evernham. He comes to Miami this weekend to make a statement about his future in NASCAR and to help land a full-time ride in 2009. A top-15 finish wouldn't come as a surprise.

Flops

David Gilliland - Trouble's found Gilliland of late. He has three DNF's in the last six races and comes limping into the season finale at HMS. Homestead ranks as one of his poorest tracks on the circuit with an average finish of 32.5 at the South Florida track.

Reed Sorenson - Sorenson can't wait to get into the No. 10 Dodge of GEM in 2009. That has to be the case, because it's been a season of misery for the No. 41 Dodge. He hasn't cracked the top 30 in the last four races, and it's clear he's just putting in his time in his final races for Chip Ganassi Racing.

Brian Vickers - It's been a very successful season for Vickers in his second year with Red Bull Racing. He boasts six top-10 finishes to this point and what looks like a top 20 spot in the final championship standings. However, Homestead-Miami Speedway hasn't been kind to him. He has only one top 20 finish in five career starts there.

Dale Earnhardt, Jr. - Earnhardt will put the wraps on what can only be termed as a disappointing effort in his first season with Rick Hendrick Motorsports. He appears poised to finish around 10th in the final standings and has only one win this season to his credit. That's far short of what was expected for this driver and team. HMS is one of his worst statistical tracks on the circuit, so we don't expect a strong finish on Sunday.

FOX Sports Fantasy Auto Racing - Top Four

Greg Biffle - We've saved our final start for Biffle in the FOX game for this weekend at Hoemstead. And why wouldn't we? He won three in a row there until last season's victory by Roush Fenway teammate Matt Kenseth. Biffle might have the magic to get back to victory lane this weekend.

Jeff Burton - Burton should post a good effort at the South Florida oval. He's coming off a good run at Phoenix and has the motivation to secure a top five championship standing finish with a good run at Miami.

David Ragan - Ragan's a driver who we're high on heading into 2009. His results the last several races are completely sick. Top 10s are becoming a habit with this young driver, and Roush puts the best cars on the Homestead track.

Jamie McMurray - This is the perfect combination of streaking driver, good team track and veteran experience. McMurray's a driver to watch closely heading into next season. He should have a statement finish at HMS on Sunday.

Article first appeared 11/12/08