by Mike Harmon

Comment

The Super Bowl is rapidly approaching, and preparations are in overdrive in Tampa. The PGA season just kicked off. The NCAA Tournament and Major League Baseball aren't that much further off in the distance. However, between now and then, we'll see a flurry of activity in the NASCAR world as final driver slots are filled (we're keeping an eye on Elliott Sadler, who Lee Spencer of FOXSports.com reports is back at GEM) and sponsors reconsider their place in the field.

Against that backdrop, and with much to be sorted out in these next five weeks, I'm rolling out my Sleeper and Flop candidates for the 2009 campaign. Some familiar faces appear on both lists as well as a few surprises. The piece does include a sleeper component after all. Let's start with a former champion who looks to rejoin the top of the pack.

Sleepers

1. Kurt Busch, Penske Racing

The former series champion battled through more trials and disappointments than he had in any season since joining the field full-time in 2001. It all started with a tremendous charge to second place behind then-teammate Ryan Newman at Daytona, and it was pretty much downhill from there. Busch's 21.9-position average finish was a 6.7-position drop-off from his strong 2007 performance. His average qualifying position also dropped by 6.7 slots. Busch hadn't averaged a qualifying position worse than 16.7 in his prior six seasons, and he'd averaged a finish better than 16th place in four of the previous six years. Busch generated only 10 top 10s in 2008, his lowest total in six seasons. Three of those top 10s came in the final six races of the season, leading me to believe that the No. 2 Penske team might be set for a rally in 2009.

2. David Reutimann, Michael Waltrip Racing

Reutimann popped onto the radar with a solid 18th-place finish in last year's Daytona run. He then generated two additional top-20 finishes in his next four starts. That isn't to say that Reutimann didn't eventually experience the struggles that come with being a full-time Sprint Cup driver for the first time (he averaged a 23rd-place finish). However, he showed enough to believe that a sustained level of performance is on the horizon. Reutimann completed 32 of 36 events (97.4 percent of all laps run) and raced to four top 10s. I'm most encouraged by his finish to the 2008 season. Reutimann raced to seven top-20 finishes in his final 13 starts, a period that included three of his top-10 finishes.

3. David Ragan, Roush Fenway

Ragan was one of the best stories of the NASCAR circuit in 2008. The 23-year-old sophomore vastly improved his performance level and narrowly missed racing in the Chase. Ragan improved his average starting position by 11.7 slots with a 9.1-position improvement in his average finish. However, a 32nd-place finish in the season finale kept him from appearing on the grand stage. I was most encouraged to watch Ragan and his team rally to post seven top-13 finishes (five top 10s) in the final eight races of the Chase. They could have packed up and gotten ready for 2009. They raced hard and still made waves. I believe that team-building experiencing of powering through the stretch run will serve Ragan will in 2 009.

4. Juan Pablo Montoya, Ganassi Racing

It's one of the most frequently asked questions in the NASCAR circuit. Is the third year the charm for Montoya? Montoya regressed in his overall production last year, a season marked by an astronomical total of nine DNFs and only 19 top-20 finishes (eight of those came in his first nine starts. I have to believe another offseason of work and pride in his resume that currently possesses a gaping hole will spur Montoya forward in 2009.

5. Reed Sorenson, Gillett Everham

Sorenson joins Gillett Evernham following a disappointing final season for Ganassi Racing. He raced to only two top 10s, a steep drop-off from 2007. Sorenson's average finish dropped by 3.6 positions and he raced into the top 20 only six times in 35 starts. Hope springs eternal, and I wonder if a pairing with a driver like Kasey Kahne might stir Sorenson to be more aggressive in 2009. Sorenson generated three times as many top-10 finishes in 2007 when he took more chances and traded more paint (seven DNFs versus two in 2008).

Flops

1. Jeff Gordon, Hendrick Motorsports

Gordon's absence from Victory Lane in 2008 was one of the stories of the season. Sure, it didn't make the same noise as Jimmie Johnson's third straight title, but this was Gordon's first year without a victory since 1993 (his first year as a full-time driver). I don't believe that Gordon will be shut out again, but I am somewhat concerned about his final stat line from the past four seasons. Aside from his brilliant 2007 campaign in which Gordon claimed six wins and a career-high 30 top 10s, his 2005, 2006 and 2008 seasons looked remarkably similar. Is this the level we can expect in 2009, or will another dynamic season akin to 2007 unfold?

2. Dale Earnhardt, Jr., Hendrick Motorsports

Earnhardt began his inaugural season in the No. 88 car brilliantly, taking full advantage of the resources and know-how in the Hendrick shop. He raced to 15 top-15 finishes in the first half of the season, including 12 top 10s and a win. Unfortunately, Earnhardt wasn't able to sustain this momentum and raced to eight top 15s in the final 18 events. He finished 20th or worse in five of the Chase events. There were no blown engines or mechanical malfunctions like his final years at DEI, so one has to wonder what went awry in the second half. Is this a sign of more rocky performances to come? Earnhardt made the Chase to reach one goal, but his overall performance left many wanting

3. Ryan Newman, Stewart-Haas Racing

Newman leaves Penske Racing to team with Tony Stewart. Both drivers seek to forget difficult 2008 seasons in this new partnership. Newman's 2008 campaign started with a mighty roar, as he edged then-teammate Kurt Busch for a win at Daytona. He then ran 10th in the Auto Club 500 and was riding high with back-to-back top 10s to open the year. Newman would produce only six more top-10 rides in his final 34 events. In fact, Newman raced to only 18 top-20 finishes in his final 34 events. This level of inconsistency will force fantasy participants to take a wait-and-see approach as Newman adjusts to his new ride.

4. Kasey Kahne, Gillett Evernham

Kahne improved his average finish by 4.1 slots and returned to Victory Lane on two occasions following a terrible 2007 season. Most importantly, Kahne registered a career-low four DNFs. Despite the improvement in his overall performance, Kahne's back-to-back 40th-place finishes in August crippled his Chase chances. Even with his increased number of top 10s (14) and improvement in most metrics, Kahne still raced outside of the top 20 on 16 occasions. He's a high-risk, high-reward driver, and fantasy participants have grown gunshy of the No. 9 Gillett Evernham ride.

5. Brian Vickers, Red Bull Racing

I was torn about what to do with Vickers. On one hand, I was mighty impressed by his team's rapid acclimation to the field and great improvement from the inaugural 2007 campaign. On the other hand, Vickers still raced outside of the top 15 on 22 occasions and produced just two top 15s in the final 10 races of the season. I'm fearful of a regression in the offing. His team may be helped by all of the offseason changes to teams, drivers and the learning curve associated with such moves.