New format could kill U.S.-Mexico rivalry

If you ask most American soccer fans what they consider to be the most important matches they look forward to, most will have USA-Mexico World Cup qualifying matches at or near the top of their lists.

For the past decade, the U.S. men’s national team’s visits to Mexico City, as well as Mexico’s trips to Columbus, Ohio, have become must-see events. U.S. fans have celebrated the run of 2-0 scorelines at Crew Stadium, while remaining frustrated at the national team’s inability to secure a point or three at Estadio Azteca, where no American team has ever won.

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It is this history that makes these games so special, and have fans on both sides of the border counting the days, months and years until the next meeting.

Unfortunately for those fans, and for both national teams, they may have to wait much longer for those matches than they could have ever expected.

CONCACAF is set to dramatically change its World Cup qualifying process, a move that will mean more games and more opportunities for the smaller teams in the region, but a move that will effectively cripple the region’s best rivalry.

Under the new format, which is awaiting approval from FIFA, CONCACAF would do away with the six-team, ‘Hexagonal’ format in the final round of World Cup qualifying, replacing it with a two groups of four. The winner of each of the two groups would automatically qualify for the World Cup, while the second-place finishers would play off for the third qualifying spot (with the loser eligible for the remaining half spot, assuming CONCACAF keeps it).

The big issue with this format is that, barring a seeding catastrophe, the United States would be unlikely to be placed in a final round group with Mexico. In fact, even though there would be an extra group stage added to the new CONCACAF format (teams would go through three group stages of four-team groups), Mexico and the United States would almost certainly be kept away from each other.

The change is a disaster for the United States and Mexico, the two clear-cut strongest teams in the region. Their rivalry has transcended the region, and their qualifying meetings have all proven to be intensely competitive (not to mention big money-makers).

Fans are losing out on the two matches every four years that mean more than any non-World Cup match. Winning a qualifying match at Azteca would arguably mean as much to the U.S. national team as any win in recent memory, and something tells me Mexicans would relish the opportunity to finally win a qualifier in Columbus after three straight failed attempts (and three straight 2-0 score lines).

U.S. Soccer president Sunil Gulati didn’t sound overly distraught about the possibility of losing these matches, citing the likelihood that the United States and Mexico would still likely face each other in friendlies as well as in the Gold Cup. Whether he was simply trying to look at the bright side of an inevitable change, or truly oblivious to just how bad these changes are is unclear, but you can rest assured most American fans (and most players) will find the news disheartening and disappointing.

Not only will the United States and Mexico miss out on facing their toughest regional opponent in two meaningful matches, but the new format could actually expose each of them to a more precarious route to qualifying.

Under the old six-team final round format, a slow start could be overcome over the course of ten matches (something Mexico has had to do in two of the past three qualifying cycles). A slow start in the final group stage under the new format, with just six games, could spell doom, or at the very least could force a team like Mexico or the United States to contest a playoff for a World Cup place.

Going back to the strength of schedule aspect, the United States will effectively be losing four final-round matches and replacing them with cushier first-round group stage matches against opponents they should have zero trouble dealing with. Given the United States’ relative consistency in qualifying through the years, this would likely mean that the qualifying process should become significantly easier, at least before the final round. In the final round, however, an early stumble could suddenly put the United States’ seventh straight World Cup in danger.

So why has CONCACAF gone this route? Why mess with a system that wasn’t broken? It’s pretty simple. The region’s smaller nations wanted a bigger piece of the pie, and the new system means 32 teams will get to play in at least one group stage rather than just 16 teams having that opportunity. It also means more of the region’s smaller nations will have a chance to play World Cup qualifiers against regional powers like Mexico and the United States, which can mean more opportunities for revenue for those countries.

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In theory, the new format could help mid-level teams such as Jamaica, Trinidad & Tobago and Canada if the CONCACAF process to seed the group stages is improved. Under the old format, CONCACAF allowed a brutal second-round group of Mexico, Honduras, Canada and Jamaica to be drawn together. Those are four teams all worthy of reaching the final round of qualifying.

Honduras and Mexico ultimately survived that brutal group, while Jamaica barely lost out to Mexico for a place in the final round. As for Canada? Canada finished as arguably the best fourth-place group finisher in CONCACAF history. All while El Salvador and Trinidad & Tobago were gift-wrapped easy paths to the final round of qualifying before predictably finishing at the bottom of the Hexagonal standings.

The new format should make it easier for CONCACAF to avoid putting together unbalanced qualifying groups, and could also allow more teams a realistic chance of grabbing a World Cup qualifying berth, but it is doing so at the cost of the region’s best rivalry.

That may be a price CONCACAF is willing to pay, but it is one that leaves American fans and Mexican fans as the biggest losers in 2014 World Cup qualifying before a single ball has been kicked.

Ives Galarcep is a senior writer for FoxSoccer.com covering the U.S. national team and Major League Soccer.