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Red Sox Nation will blame someone, but who?
MLB Playoff Central
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Yankees win 4-2 |
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I'm betting Jonathan Papelbon.
Papelbon is the guy who refuses to sign a long-term contract, preferring to go year-to-year through arbitration.
He is the guy who occasionally exasperates Sox management with off-the-cuff, ill-advised remarks.
And he is the guy who blew a 6-4 lead Sunday in Game 3 of the Division Series at Fenway Park, with the Sox losing to the Angels, 7-6.
Never mind that Papelbon entered the game with a career 0.00 ERA in 26 postseason innings.
Never mind that he was 38-for-41 in save chances with a 1.85 ERA in the regular season, and was particularly dominant in the second half.
Talk of a Papelbon trade first surfaced when the Sox acquired Billy Wagner on Aug 25. The thinking was, rather than pay Papelbon $8 million to $9 million in 2010, the Sox could offer Wagner arbitration, close with him for one season, then turn the job over to Daniel Bard.
Well, Wagner is 38, and he would earn a significant amount in arbitration coming off an $8 million salary. Bard has the physical tools to succeed as a closer, but no one knows if he has the emotional makeup.
The Sox learned this season with their rotation how quickly pitching depth can diminish. Trading Papelbon would weaken the bullpen, diminishing one of their strengths.
Then again, the Red Sox are always mindful of maximizing their assets — and they would not exactly be trading Papelbon at the peak of his popularity in Boston.
Moving him would serve a dual purpose, enabling the Red Sox to clear salary and address more pressing needs.
The Sox will either re-sign left fielder Jason Bay, a potential free agent, or replace him with a comparable hitter. They will exercise Alex Gonzalez's $6 million club option or find another shortstop. As always, they will look for starting pitching, particularly with right-hander Josh Beckett entering the final year of his contract. And oh yes, they also need to find a young, athletic catcher who can throw.
The interest in Papelbon might be limited to certain high-revenue clubs, considering his rising salary and potential free agency after the 2011 season. But he would be the most accomplished closer available, by far.
The White Sox's Bobby Jenks, Indians' Kerry Wood and Reds' Francisco Cordero all could be traded this off-season. The Tigers' Fernando Rodney, Astros' Jose Valverde and Braves' Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez all are set to enter free agency.
None is Papelbon.
If the Red Sox made him available, he would intrigue not only teams that completely lack closers, but also those who might view him as superior to their current options.
The Braves and Cubs would be two of many possibilities. The Tigers also would represent a potential fit.
The Tigers' scouting director, David Chadd, was the Red Sox's scouting director when the team drafted Papelbon. Chadd is well-regarded in the Tigers' organization, and the Tigers have shown a past willingness to trade for players with whom their front office has a history. Their current management drew on its previous ties with the Marlins in acquiring first baseman Miguel Cabrera, shortstop Edgar Renteria and designated hitter Gary Sheffield within the past three years.
Such talk, for now, is speculation. But one thing we know — the Red Sox's front office will not step back and say, "Wait 'til next year." The last time the Sox made a disappointing first-round exit, getting swept by the White Sox in 2005, the team purged Johnny Damon, Kevin Millar, Edgar Renteria and Bill Mueller — and brought in Beckett, Mike Lowell, Alex Gonzalez, Mark Loretta and others.
The Sox failed to make the playoffs the next season, their only miss since '02, but that's not the point.
Someone will take the hit for this.
Bet on Papelbon.
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