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Angels should try moving Vlad down

by Ken Rosenthal

Ken Rosenthal has been the senior baseball writer for FOXSports.com since Aug. 2005. He appears weekly on the FSN Baseball Report and MLB on FOX.


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Updated: October 19, 2009, 2:59 AM EDT
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ANAHEIM, Calif. - I asked three scouts Sunday about Vladimir Guerrero, and it sure did not sound like they were talking about a cleanup hitter.

"Late on fastballs," said the first.

"An out," said the second.

"Done," said the third.

Then I asked Angels manager Mike Scioscia if he planned to drop Guerrero from the cleanup spot for Game 3 of the American League Championship Series.

Scioscia answered no.

"Right now, there's a lot of focus on one guy," Scioscia said as the Angels took batting practice. "We've got a whole bunch of groupings on our team that haven't worked like they need to. I don't think (a change) is going to produce anything different right now."

Scioscia is correct on at least one level — Guerrero is hardly his only hitter struggling. In the Angels' two losses at Yankee Stadium, their batting/on-base/slugging line was a dismal .154-.258-.205.

Still, what would be the harm in dropping Guerrero to say, the sixth spot?

I know, I know — every fan and writer is a manager at this time of year. Second-guessing in the postseason often gets out of hand. And Scioscia is one of the top managers in the game.

The problem is, the Angels are in a difficult if not desperate situation, trailing the Yankees, two games to none.

Guerrero, 34, was a hero in the Division Series, going 4-for-10 against the Red Sox and getting the game-winning hit off closer Jonathan Papelbon in the clinching victory. But the Yankees are executing pitches much better than the Red Sox did.

While the Angels showed improved plate discipline this season, they still like to swing, Guerrero most of all. Work them around the edges and make them chase, one scout says, and most will get themselves out.

Guerrero went 0-for-4 with runners in scoring position in Game 2, stranding a total of nine baserunners, each time ending an inning. The team overall went 3-for-15 with RISP, losing in 13 innings, 4-3.

The sample sizes are ridiculously small, and surely Scioscia does not want to show panic. Things can change quickly — Chone Figgins was 0-for-16 with one walk in the postseason before reaching base four times in Game 2. His first hit, an RBI single in the 11th inning, gave the Angels the lead.

Scioscia is not sticking with Guerrero out of loyalty. Clearly, the manager believes that he lacks better solutions — particularly when Guerrero is 9-for-23 lifetime off the Yankees' Game 3 starter, left- hander Andy Pettitte.

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One revised lineup could start with Figgins, Howie Kendrick and Bobby Abreu, followed by Torii Hunter, Kendry Morales and Guerrero. But Abreu, 0-for-9 with four strikeouts in the series, is not an ideal choice to bat third and go left-left with Pettitte. Morales, 3-for-18 in the postseason, also could be diminished against Pettitte — a switch-hitter, he is weaker from the right side.

More than ever, then, the Angels need Guerrero to produce. But Guerrero is coming off a career-worst season, one in which he missed time with a torn right pectoral muscle and strained left knee. He is quite proud, as all the great ones are. But he also is a potential free agent who almost certainly is in his final days with the Angels.

What does Scioscia have to lose?

When Yankees manager Joe Torre dropped Alex Rodriguez to the eighth spot in the 2006 Division Series, the move seemed needlessly cruel. Guerrero might be upset if Scioscia dropped him even one spot in the lineup. I doubt the move would be seriously questioned by anyone else.

Here's a statistical oddity for you. The Angels went 17-4 when both Hunter and Guerrero were injured from July 8 to Aug. 3, batting .324-.381-.511, averaging 7.6 runs per game. The quality of the team's competition during that period was not especially good. But certainly, the Angels proved that they can score without their No. 3 and No. 4 hitters.

Which brings us back to Game 3.

Changing the lineup often amounts to change for the sake of change, making little difference statistically. The Angels need all of their hitters to be better, not just Guerrero.

Then again, the Angels are almost certain to bid farewell to Guerrero in a matter of weeks and initiate efforts to replace him with a younger, more productive free agent such as Matt Holliday.

If they are willing to acknowledge then that Guerrero no longer should be their cleanup hitter, they should acknowledge it now.

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