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Twins missed out on better Santana packages
Dealing Minnesota
The Twins have had a rollercoaster off-season, from losing Torii Hunter, to re-signing Justin Morneau to a franchise-record contract, to now agreeing to trade staff ace Johan Santana to the Mets. Check out Minnesota's wild ride.
For Johan Santana, it sure doesn't sound like enough.
After all this time, all this talk, all this trouble, the Twins will be criticized for accepting a relatively modest return for perhaps the best pitcher in the game, criticized for settling on Mets outfielder Carlos Gomez and pitchers Phil Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra.
From the Red Sox, the Twins could have had left-hander Jon Lester or outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury, plus a near-ready infielder, Jed Lowrie, and right-hander Justin Masterson. From the Yankees, they could have had right-hander Phil Hughes — perhaps the single best player they were offered — plus center fielder Melky Cabrera, and more.
Instead, they will land Gomez, who might not hit well enough to become the next Carlos Beltran; Mulvey and Humber, whom most scouts project as back-of-the-rotation starters; and Guerra, who, for all his promise, has yet to pitch above Class A. The deal will become official once Santana passes his physical and agrees to a contract extension.
Prospect trades cannot be judged fairly until the players are finished products; for all we know, Guerra might turn into the next Francisco Liriano. The Twins, in particular, deserve the benefit of the doubt. They've got a history of making similar trades and hitting the prospect jackpot.
For Frank Viola, they acquired pitchers Kevin Tapani and Rick Aguilera, both of whom played major roles for their 1991 World Series championship club.
For Chuck Knoblauch, they acquired pitcher Eric Milton and shortstop Cristian Guzman, who helped the club revive in the early part of the decade.
And for A.J. Pierzynski, they acquired Nathan, who evolved into an All-Star closer, and Liriano, who still could become a top-of-the-rotation starter.
If the Twins get two cornerstones out of this deal, new general manager Bill Smith will rate high marks for this trade. But go back to the winter meetings, when Smith had the Yankees and Red Sox completely paranoid, the Mets desperate to join the bidding and the Mariners and Angels lurking.
That was the time to strike. That was the moment Smith's leverage was highest.
Smith should have done then what he did early this week, telling interested clubs to make their best and final offers. The Red Sox or Yankees probably would have jumped, and Smith would have been hailed for staring down the AL East superpowers. Case closed.
Instead, Smith waited, reasoning there was no rush, gambling that the Yankees to do something stupid, miscalculating on two fronts. One, Santana had the leverage to refuse a trade once the season started, a possibility raised by his agent, Peter Greenberg, according to sources. Two, teams generally become more reluctant to trade major-league talent as they get closer to spring training.
Slowly but surely, Smith's market collapsed, and he eventually ran out of time. The Yankees dropped out of the bidding. The Red Sox declined to improve either of their offers. And ultimately, the Mets landed Santana for probably less than it would have taken to acquire him at the winter meetings.
One rival GM says that the Twins should have kept Santana, then moved him at the July 31 non-waiver deadline, when the demand for him again would have been higher. But Santana's no-trade clause gave him the power to thwart such a strategy, leaving the Twins with only draft picks if he departed as a free agent. The Twins didn't want to take that risk or invite a season-long distraction.
Smith recently made one last run at signing Santana, sources say, offering him a five-year extension. Santana balked, undoubtedly sensing that he could get more from one of the Eastern powers. At that point, the Twins had no choice but to move him.
The Mets were the lucky beneficiary, acquiring a two-time Cy Young award winner in his prime without giving up their best young talent. Santana, who turns 29 on March 13, figures to thrive against less potent National League lineups, and also should enjoy working one season at pitcher-friendly Shea Stadium before the Mets move into their new park.
His new contract will be something outrageous — six years, $135 million is a good guess — but the Mets won't blink. They would have needed to pay big dollars to sign Santana as a free agent, a move that also would have cost them a high draft pick. They're just parting with a few more players this way, players they might not regret losing.
A high-revenue team would make that deal any day.
Member Comments
The Yanks "Young Guns" will shine this yr. I plan on watching them win the "World Serious" in '08!
ramar2/8/2008 15:59:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
Minny got bullied.<br />I think that Terry Ryan screwed up last year when he traded Castillo and signed some busts. But don't put this on him or Bill Smith or the Twins. This is absolutely on Santana and on the uneven playing field that the collective bargaining agreement has made. This was all about money. And this was all about greed. First of all, no organization in the right mind should consider signing a pitcher... even one as flippin good as Santana... to 6 years. And some lunatic decided that Barry Zito was worth his bloated salary so obviously Santana was worth more. Think about the risk of injuries and the lack of motivation that you'd have to deal with in a contract like that. Can you imagine if halfway through the season he goes down with a hammy? or worse?? <br />The Twins had no leverage because Santana's demands were in fact ridiculous. The Big market big spenders are the only ones that could pay him. <br />Sure it'd be fantastic to have Santana with us in Minny still but he was asking for way too much for Bill Smith to even consider. He did the right thing.
polskagola2/4/2008 20:51:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
'But on the other hand Santana forgot who helped to make him the pitcher he is today. Rick Anderson...I lost a great deal of respect for Santana. To many players have lost what the game is and completly focus on the money'<br /><br />This isnt on Santana...when Santana signed an extension after the 2004 season, it was with the understanding the team would do what it took to REALLY compete...then, really bad free agent signing after really bad free agent signing, Management's ignoring of Hunter's desire to get a Gary Matthews Jr type extension before the 2007 season(and I mean, literally ignored the face of the franchise) really started weighing on him...Then after having the 3rd best record in baseball in 2006 and needing a bat or 2 to get over the hump...they sign Ponson, Ortiz and Cirillo..seeing a pattern here? It culminated in the trading of Castillo for a bag of balls while only being 5.5 back of a playoff spot with two months left, managements way of saying they had given up on the season...<br /><br />Santana was NEVER gonna sign with the Twins after all that...
jimmer692/4/2008 19:25:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
The Twins owner should be tared and feathered for his actions, reguarding the Santana deal. But on the other hand Santana forgot who helped to make him the pitcher he is today. Rick Anderson...I lost a great deal of respect for Santana. To many players have lost what the game is and completly focus on the money. Twins fans should hold the owner responsible as should the government of Minnesota for the owners statements about "we get a new ballfield we can hang on to our core players" Santana, is, a core player Mr. P. No pun intended but "you dropped the ball" and you should be held accountable to everyone in Minnesota.
ET2514312/4/2008 15:07:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
i read the posts in here and im more certain than ever before that public schools are not working
danjac12632/4/2008 5:59:00 AM(Report inappropriate content)
I agree with Frank Viola in that they should have held on to Santana at least till the july 31 tradeing deadline then posibly say if the Twins were still in it and showed some progres say they were close in the race maybe Santana would change his mind and sign for 5 years 100 mill or something close or if he still wanted to be traded and the Twins wernt looking so good they could try and trade him to the highest bidder if Santana would ok it and they would have gotten alot more or worst case senario they would loose him for just a couple draft picks. I beleive as usuall Pohlad went the cheap route got 4 cheap players with average talent that he will not have to pay much money to for a number of years and lets say he gets luckey and one or two of these players turn out to be decent he will just do the same thing with them as he did to Santana DEJU-VU
fantasychamp2/3/2008 1:15:00 AM(Report inappropriate content)
Man i am pissed off about this trade cause I have been a Twins fan for my whole life sense they came into the league back in 61 I was 5 years old and my dad worked there so i would go to bunches of games and now am a season ticket holder. This deal as always with the Pohlads was about money and makeing the cheapest deal is what they do all the time as there salary cap will show this season as it will be around 40 to 45 million down from 70 last year what a joke after getting his new stadium paid for by us the fans. What a slap in the face he Pohlad is the richest owner in all of sports ( read FORBES ). There is one thing i want to clear up though that is that Santana has not thrown alot of pitches over the years as he has always been on a very stricked pitch count as has all the Twins pitchers the coaches have watched this probably clooser then any other team in baseball. Santana I beleive I saw only threw over 100 pitches in 11 of his 34 starts last year and this has been a patern through out his last 6 years as a starter there are many pitchers in both leagues that have thrown a lot more pitches plus he throws about 30 percent changeups which are alot easier on your arm. So I wish you people would get your facts right for a change. I beleive Santana will dominate this coming season as he will be new to the National league which we all know is bye far the weeker league also I think he will go something like 24-5 with a 2.25 ERA and about 250 Ks in 225 inn. and win his 3 CY YOUNG
fantasychamp2/3/2008 0:49:00 AM(Report inappropriate content)
This trade was a joke. The Twins got greedy with the Yankees and lost the best package. Very poorly done.<br /><br />As for Williams vs Mantle, all I can say is that if you think Williams could carry Mantle's jock you know very little about baseball. <br />Williams was a great hitter, no doubt. Over his career the second greatest of all time, though Mantle was in his peak years a better hitter. But look a the rest of the game. Mantle was blazingly fast, had a great steal percentage, and was a very good fielder. Plus his ability to play through great pain was a textbook definition of leadership. Williams was a liability on the basepaths, and never worked to become even an average fielder. His "me first" attitude was well known among sports writers of the time and seem to be the antithesis of leadership.<br />Williams' teams won one pennant and lost that World Series, where Williams was a non-contributor.<br />Mantle's teams went to 12 World Series, and won 9, with Mickey setting numerous records in the process. <br />There is simply no comparing these players.
TomGoldkuhle2/2/2008 16:36:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
Rosenthal is just stating the obvious, the Twins G.M. screwed this trade up big time. A couple of months ago he could have gotten the best young pitcher Hughes and a starting centerfielder Cabrera that they need badly after losing Tori Hunter. And what does he do, he trades him for 4 guys who probably wouldn't make the opening day roster. How can anyone defend this trade??? As a Yankee fan I never wanted this trade to happen, because I think Hughes will be a big time pitcher and I love Cabrera in Center. Besides paying a pitcher 150 million over 7 years is a HUGE RISK, one that rarely works out with pitchers. Santana is a great pitcher but remember that he has thrown alot of pitches a logged a ton of innings the past 5 years. A great everyday player is worth that kind of salary, but not a pitcher that will play once or twice a week. I think Cashman as well as the Red Sox new what they where doing when they wouldn't over pay for Santana.
yankee_champion2/2/2008 16:14:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
I'm not trying to dog Beckett, I'm a fan of his actually...I wish nothing but the best for him; HOWEVER, having said that, I'd like to see him have a few more years in a row with results like he had this season, before annointing him best pitcher in baseball...I don't think that's too much to ask...he also needs to stay relatively healthy.
jimmer692/1/2008 18:56:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
Jimmer,<br /><br />Again good stats...you should be Santana's agent. Although after hearing how much he just got paid by the Mets...I'm not sure that he needs a new agent. <br />My only arguement with your latest post is that you seem to make Beacket out to be a 1-hit wonder. By infering that he's basically sucked every other year or has been hurt. All I can say is that he's the only starting pitcher that I know of whose basically pitched 2-separate teams.( One in both leagues)to world series titles...by dominating the postseason. He's done that twice in the last 5 years. I do believe that I'd take that past any day.
2/1/2008 17:32:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
check this out...if you don't believe me how much run support affects win loss...look at Matt Cain this year...10th in the NL in ERA, and he went 7-16...<br /><br />Santana was on a team that was 25th in scoring and dead last after the all star break...how far back in runs scored were the Twins in the second half....the 29th highest scoring team after the all star break scored 22 more runs than the Twins did...and that's in, what, 76 games?
jimmer692/1/2008 15:12:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
Win loss record is very much dependent of how many runs your team scores...Beckett had 6 games this year where his team scored 3 runs or less...Santana had over 20 games he pitched where his team scored 3 or less runs...Santana only had 3 games where he gave up 4 or more runs...yet he still had 13 losses...if given the same amount of games Beckett had with 4 or more runs of support,, the most losses Santana could have had would have been 6...<br /><br />Beckett is one year removed from having an ERA over 5.00...and he's only had one season where he hasn't hit the DL...and that was the year his ERA was over 5.00.<br /><br />ONE SOLID YEAR in a row doesn't equate to the best...
jimmer692/1/2008 15:07:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
Hey Jimmer,<br /><br />I appreciate the stat breakdown to prove your point about Santana. You make some valid points...but you can't just blow-off the fact that the guy barely broke even in the win column. When someone is called,"best pitcher in baseball."... that means presently.I'm sorry but I can't crown someone with a 15-13 record....no matter what they've done in the past,over the majors only 20 game winner who also dominated 3 playoff teams<br />as the best big game pitcher in the bigs. I can reconsider the "far superior" label. But I'm not budging on Becket presently being the best pitcher in baseball.
2/1/2008 14:49:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
Right on Ken, I couldn't agree more.
robertmiller211@hotmail.com1/31/2008 17:06:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
The best pitcher in baseball!" Wasn't Santana 15-13 last year? And what has the best pitcher in the game done in the playoffs? I think this is an insult to Josh Becket who not only had a far superior regular season .<br /><br />In what universe did Beckett have a far superior year compared to Santana? By REAL pitching stats, not wins and losses, Santana beat him<br /><br />Beckett, in the AL, was 6th in ERA, tied for 4th in WHIP, 7th in BAA, 7th in Ks and 19th in IP... <br /><br />Santana was 7th in ERA, 1st in WHIP, 3rd in BAA, 2nd in Ks and 6th in IP... <br /><br />Beckett BARELY beat him in ERA...and Santana got him by everything else by a fairly good margin...<br /><br />As far as how Santana pitches in the playoffs...well, he's been a full time starter since 2004 and his playoff ERA since then is under 1.40...SO, not so bad.<br /><br />Santana's AVERAGE line over the last 4 years(since he became a full time starter): ERA: 2.90, 245 Ks/ 50BBs, .210 BAA, .99 WHIP, 227 IP... <br /><br />Beckett has never come even CLOSE to even ONE of these numbers in ONE season, much less all 5 stats<br /><br />I like how Beckett, one year removed from having an ERA over 5.00, and only being able to go ONE season without getting injured, is supposed to be the best pitcher in baseball...you Boston fans crack me up...
jimmer691/31/2008 16:59:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
and I repeat, some of you Redsox fans are a joke. The Sox finally won a division over a pathetic Yankees pitching squad, by 2 games, and almost blew a 14 game lead in the process. How many games are you hoping Schilling wins at 40 when he was a 500 pitcher last year? Arod has a better chance of winning another MVP than Lowell does of matching his career year and without him the sox would have been thanking Selig that they won another wildcard. you people are dreaming if you think you have a cakewalk in the division and count the Yankees out. a little success has made your heads swell. remember, you totally missed the playoffs 2 years ago is that the blueprint you are speaking of?
staugtrader1/31/2008 14:22:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
Staugtrade,<br /><br />Do you ever get tired of living in the last century? Wake Up! Your Yankees are in trouble... for a change the kind that they can't buy their way out of. Not trading (read over paying) for Santana was a good sign. At least they seem to be paying some attention to the fact that they have been over paying for past or near past prime players for too long. I think your team may well make a come back. If they do, it will be because teams like the Red Sox have provided the blueprint.
NHDirtDog1/31/2008 11:05:00 AM(Report inappropriate content)
The best pitcher in baseball!" Wasn't Santana 15-13 last year? And what has the best pitcher in the game done in the playoffs? I think this is an insult to Josh Becket who not only had a far superior regular season but dominated in the postseason. To me that's a far better rationale for being the best pitcher in the game.<br /><br />---- signature----<br /><br />I am a young ambitious woman looking for the man of my dreams... Are u the one?<br />Feel free to view my crazy hot pics at myinterracialmatch . com by searching 'sportbabe'.
hotlover2031/31/2008 9:48:00 AM(Report inappropriate content)
some of you Boston fans really are a joke. On one hand you say The Yankees lose because they did not get Santana, then you say the Mets lose because he is not a great pithcer. And to say Boston did not need him when they have 2 40 year olds in their rotation is a little strange too. The Yankee staff was a mess last year and in no small part to Torre's mismanagement of the staff since Mel Stottlemyre left. ( I have said that many times before). Yet they finished only 2 games behind the sox and won the head to head series. I love all the haters counting the Yankees out, just like last year when they were 14 games down. I would not be surprosed to see a repeat of the Sox last WS win, when they missed the playoffs the next year. Oh I know, Lowell will have another career year, and so will Manny and Ortiz will be just fine after his surgery, and Schilling will be better this year, etc etc etc.
staugtrader1/31/2008 9:01:00 AM(Report inappropriate content)
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