Preview 2008: Toronto Blue Jays

by Lindy's


Updated: March 12, 2008, 3:47 PM EST 63 comments

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Toronto general manager J.P. Ricciardi is an ardent supporter of tweaking Major League Baseball's postseason format. If there's ever an initiative to add a second Wild-Card team, he'll be first in line to support it.

That's understandable given how much time his club spends looking up at the Red Sox and Yankees. The Blue Jays just posted back-to-back seasons better than .500 for the first time since 2000, but they still finished third in the American League East for the eighth time in 10 years.

"I think you have to look at the dichotomy of the American League from our standpoint," Ricciardi said. "Those teams aren't going away. There's no cyclical change in their payroll or their ability to go out and get people. It's not that we're not up for the challenge of competing with them. All we're asking for is a little more of a shot."

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In the absence of a helping hand from MLB, the Jays will have to load up on the ice and ibuprofen and take their chances.

Toronto won 83 games despite losing more than 950 man-games to injury — three times as many as the previous season. Starters Roy Halladay, A.J. Burnett and Gustavo Chacin, closer B.J. Ryan, first baseman Lyle Overbay, third baseman Troy Glaus, catcher Gregg Zaun and outfielders Reed Johnson and Vernon Wells all spent time on the disabled list.

Enough young players filled the void, particularly in the pitching staff, to give the Jays a sense of optimism for 2008. But first they'll have to get past Godzilla and King Kong in the AL East.

Pitching

File Roy Halladay under "hoss." His seven complete games surpassed the total for 26 of the 30 major league teams. With win No. 7 this season, Halladay will pass Jimmy Key and move into third place behind Dave Stieb and Jim Clancy on Toronto's all-time wins list. A.J. Burnett, Toronto's nominal No. 2, is fine when he takes the mound, but he's not exactly low maintenance. Young Dustin McGowan has big-time stuff, and Shaun Marcum, Gustavo Chacin and Jesse Litsch are all in the mix. The Jays have kicked around the idea of using Casey Janssen as a starter, but they'll probably keep him in the pen for the time being. If closer B.J. Ryan can return from Tommy John surgery, he'll join Jeremy Accardo, Janssen and Scott Downs as part of a killer relief contingent.

Starters

Roy Halladay — RHP
2007 line: 16-7, 3.71 ERA, 31 GS, 225.1 IP, 232 H, 48 BB, 139 SO, .268 BAA, 9.27 H/9, 1.92 BB/9, 5.55 SO/9.
Significant stats/injuries: Missed three weeks because of an emergency appendectomy. Went at least 7.0 IP in each of his final 10 starts.
Scouting report: Long arm action. Great downward angle. Gets very good sinking action with his fastball (90-94 mph); commands it to both sides of the plate. Throws a spike curveball which he varies the size on. Pulls the string with a plus changeup. Logs a lot of innings. Keeps runners close with a quick move to first. True stopper.
Grade: 4.2.

A.J. Burnett — RHP
2007 line: 10-8, 3.75 ERA, 25 GS, 165.2 IP, 131 H, 66 BB, 176 SO, .214 BAA, 7.12 H/9, 3.59 BB/9, 9.56 SO/9.
Significant stats/injuries: Had 10-plus Ks in five of 25 starts. Recorded a 3.01 ERA in 10 starts after coming off the DL on Aug. 12.
Scouting report: Loose arm. Solid delivery. Builds around an overpowering fastball (94-98 mph) that jumps late. Changes the hitter's eye level with a sharp, two-plane curveball. Mixes in an occasional changeup for show. Has improved his ability to repeat his delivery and make pitches. Could be a difference maker if he continues to mature and stays healthy enough to go to the post 30 or more times. Average fielder, at best.
Grade: 3.5.

Dustin McGowan — RHP
2007 line: 12-10, 4.08 ERA, 27 GS, 169.2 IP, 146 H, 61 BB, 144 SO, .230 BAA, 7.74 H/9, 3.24 BB/9, 7.64 SO/9.
Significant stats/injuries: Held righthanders to a .198 BA with 2 HRs, while lefthanders hit .257 with 12 HRs. Had a 3.67 ERA after All-Star break.
SCOUTING REPORT: Power pitcher. Sound three-quarters delivery. Gets on hitters in a hurry with a fastball (92-96 mph) that he locates to both sides. Inclined to be straight with his fastball. Flashes promise with a hard, tilted slider and downer curveball, but both tend to come and go on him. Throws a changeup that fades from lefty bats. Very slow to the plate.
Grade: 3.0.

Shaun Marcum — RHP
2007 line: 12-10, 4.08 ERA, 27 GS, 169.2 IP, 146 H, 61 BB, 144 SO, .230 BAA, 7.74 H/9, 3.24 BB/9, 7.64 SO/9.
Significant stats/injuries: Held righthanders to a .198 BA with 2 HRs, while lefthanders hit .257 with 12 HRs. Had a 3.67 ERA after All-Star break.
Scouting report: Power pitcher. Sound three-quarters delivery. Gets on hitters in a hurry with a fastball (92-96 mph) that he locates to both sides. Inclined to be straight with his fastball. Flashes promise with a hard, tilted slider and downer curveball, but both tend to come and go on him. Throws a changeup that fades from lefty bats. Very slow to the plate. Maintains excellent arm speed with his change. Gets hurt up in the zone. Very short and quick move to first base.
Grade: 2.8.

A.J. Burnett will combine with Roy Halladay to form a nice 1-2 punch. ( Al Messerschmidt / Getty Images)

Jesse Litch — RHP
2007 line: 7-9, 3.81 ERA, 20 G, 111.0 IP, 0 SV, 116 H, 36 BB, 50 SO, .270 BAA.
Significant stats/injuries: Had a 3.81 ERA, the franchise's third-lowest for a rookie making at least 20 starts. Allowed two earned runs or less in 11 of final 16 starts.
Scouting report: Sinkerballer. Herky-jerky delivery. Induces a lot of ground balls with a fastball he sinks to both sides of the plate. Gets quick-sliding action with a cutter. Mixes in a curveball and changeup for strikes. Lacks an out pitch he can count on. Quick to first base.
Grade: 2.2.

Relievers

B.J. Ryan — LHP
2007 line: 0-2, 12.46 ERA, 5 G, 4.1 IP, 3 SV, 7 H, 4 BB, 3 SO, .333 BAA.
Significant stats/injuries: Tommy John surgery in April limited him to just five appearances. On schedule to return for '08 season.
Scouting report: Big, strong body. Tough to follow. Has simplified his across-the-body delivery — he's more compact now — and is throwing more consistent strikes. Pitches at 92, 93 mph with his fastball; cuts it a lot (90, 91 mph). Has exchanged his sweeping slider for a shorter, tighter version. Needs to prove he's healthy.
Grade: N/A.

Jeremy Accardo — RHP
2007 line: 4-4, 2.14 ERA, 0 GS, 67.1 IP, 51 H, 24 BB, 57 SO, .206 BAA, 6.82 H/9, 3.21 BB/9, 7.62 SO/9.
Significant stats/injuries: Just the eighth different Blue Jay to reach 30 saves in a season. Did not allow a home run in 36.1 IP against lefthanders.
Scouting report: Unconventional delivery. Extremely quick arm action. Draws his arm back like he's shooting an arrow (from a bow) and lets it fly. Attacks hitters with an above-average fastball (93-95 mph), a quick, late-breaking slider and a split that dives off the table. Bounces back well. Possesses quick reactions and feet. Former college shortstop.
Grade: 3.6.

Casey Janssen — RHP
2007 line: 2-3, 2.35 ERA, 0 GS, 72.2 IP, 67 H, 20 BB, 39 SO, .247 BAA, 8.30 H/9, 2.48 BB/9, 4.83 SO/9.
Significant stats/injuries: Had a 0.74 ERA and held opponents to a .153 BA in 24.1 IP during day games. Recorded a 0.94 ERA in 28.2 IP against AL East teams.
Scouting report: Four-pitch pitcher. Aggressive approach. Gets excellent movement with his fastball (89-93 mph) down in the strike zone. Complements his heater with a short, quick slider, a big slow curveball and a solid-average changeup. Mixes up his pitches effectively. Can be difficult for hitters to follow. Could move back to the rotation. OK fielder.
Grade: 3.0.

Catching

Gregg Zaun wants to be the Julio Franco of catchers and keep playing until he gets his AARP card. He's a patient hitter and an old-school guy who has an emotional stake in the performance of his pitching staff. Zaun's biggest issues are: a) throwing; and b) staying healthy. The Blue Jays signed career blue collar guy Sal Fasano as the backup.

Gregg Zaun — C
2007 line: .242 BA, 331 AB, 43 R, 80 H, 24 2B, 1 3B, 10 HR, 52 RBI, 51 BB, 55 SO, .341 OBP, .752 OPS.
Significant stats/injuries: Missed 39 games with a fractured thumb. Threw out just 13 of 73 basestealers (17.8%). Hit .290 against lefthanders.
Scouting report: Switch-hitter. Patient approach. Likes the ball middle-down from the left side and turns on it for power. Will give in and go the other way with two strikes. Struggles to catch up with high fastballs either way. Active receiver. Blocks balls in the dirt adeptly. Doesn't throw well. Heady game-caller.
Grade: 2.2

Infield/DH

Corner men Lyle Overbay and Troy Glaus were injury casualties in 2007. When he's healthy, Overbay is a smooth fielder and a doubles machine at first base. Glaus was mentioned in the Mitchell Report (along with Zaun), so he has a little something extra to prove this season. Aaron Hill quietly hit .291 and ranked second among AL second basemen — behind Robinson Cano — in slugging percentage. Shortstop David Eckstein settled for a one-year, $4.5 million deal with Toronto after turning down a more lucrative four-year offer from the Mets, so he won't lack for motivation. John McDonald, miscast as the everyday shortstop, gives Toronto a great glove and a professional approach off the bench. Frank Thomas, the designated hitter, tailed off a bit from his 2006 effort in Oakland. But he's still a frightening sight in the batter's box.

Lyle Overbay — 1B
2007 line: .240 BA, 425 AB, 49 R, 102 H, 30 2B, 2 3B, 10 HR, 44 RBI, 47 BB, 78 SO, .315 OBP, .706 OPS.
Significant stats/injuries: Was limited to 119 games by a broken bone in his right hand suffered June 3. Had pins removed Sept. 25. Hit .209 with runners in scoring position.
Scouting report: Line-drive bat. Slowed by a broken hand last season. Covers the zone and makes hard contact to all fields when healthy. Shows power to the big part of the park. Hangs in against lefthanded pitching. Tends to chase up when behind in the count. Steady first baseman. Doesn't have much range — likes to play off the line — but has soft hands and good arm strength.
Grade: 2.8.

Aaron Hill — 2B
2007 line: .291 BA, 608 AB, 87 R, 177 H, 47 2B, 2 3B, 17 HR, 78 RBI, 41 BB, 102 SO, .333 OBP, .792 OPS.
Significant stats/injuries: Closed the season with a career-high 15-game hitting streak and hit .406 after Sept. 1. Tied Roberto Alomar's franchise record for second basemen with 17 home runs.
Scouting report: Short, quick swing. Aggressive approach. Packs some dynamite in his barrel. Uses the field. Punishes lefthanded pitching. Hits the ball out from center field to the left field foul pole. Improved defender. Still boots a few too many balls, but goes well to either side and displays a strong arm completing the double play.
Grade: 3.0.

If he's happy, Scott Rolen could be an upgrade at 3B over Troy Glaus. ( Al Messerschmidt / Getty Images)

Scott Rolen — 3B
2007 line: .265 BA, 392 AB, 55 R, 104 H, 24 2B, 2 3B, 8 HR, 58 RBI, 37 BB, 56 SO, .331 OBP, .729 OPS.
Significant stats/injuries: Played through an ongoing shoulder injury last season and had surgery Sept. 11 to remove scar tissue.
Scouting report: Former All-Star. Bothered by continuing shoulder problems. Has lost some bat speed and power. Continues to smoke the ball up and in the middle of the plate. Tends to roll over on pitches away. Outstanding 3B. Possesses extremely quick reactions and feet, soft hands and well-above-average range to either side. Still shows the cannon arm.
Grade: 3.0.

David Eckstein — SS
2007 line: .309 BA, 434 AB, 58 R, 134 H, 23 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 31 RBI, 24 BB, 22 SO, .356 OBP, .739 OPS.
Significant stats/injuries: Missed time between June 14-July 13 with a back injury. Hit .345 at Busch Stadium and .277 on the road. Was successful on all eight steal attempts against righthanders.
Scouting report: Offensive catalyst. Contact hitter. Very short stroke. Handles the bat very well and uses the entire field. Jerks the ball up and on the inner half for occasional power. Resourceful SS. Lacks prototypical shortstop skills — smooth actions, raw range, arm strength — but positions himself smartly and generally turns outs into outs. Throws accurately.
Grade: 2.3.

Marco Scutaro — SS/2B
2007 line: .260 BA, 338 AB, 49 R, 88 H, 13 2B, 0 3B, 7 HR, 41 RBI, 35 BB, 40 SO, .332 OBP, .693 OPS.
Significant stats/injuries: Was second on the A's with 472 games played the past four seasons. Made 85 starts and played five positions in '07.
Scouting report: Jack-of-all-trades. Contact hitter. Likes the ball up. Sprays line drives. Spins on inner-half mistakes for power. Steps up in the clutch. Solid middle-infield defender. Has quick feet and hands to go with a strong arm. Tends to play out of control at times; makes some dumb plays trying to do too much.
Grade: 2.0.

Frank Thomas — DH
2007 line: .277 BA, 531 AB, 63 R, 147 H, 30 2B, 0 3B, 26 HR, 95 RBI, 81 BB, 94 SO, .377 OBP, .857 OPS.
Significant stats/injuries: Topped 25 HRs for the 12th time in 16 years. Ranks 18th all-time with 513 HRs. Hit .306 after the All-Star break.
Scouting report: Pull-oriented. Very patient. Crowds the plate and looks for pitches he can hook into the seats. Doesn't miss his pitch when he gets it. Takes umbrage at every called strike on the inner part of the plate. Can't run at all or play in the field.
Grade: 3.0.

Outfield

Vernon Wells' numbers dipped markedly after he signed a $126 million contract, but he gets a mulligan after playing with a shoulder injury that required season-ending surgery. Rightfielder Alex Rios, a bona fide "five-tool" guy, is ready to ascend to the level of baseball's elite. San Francisco considered trading stud pitching prospect Tim Lincecum for Rios before the deal fell through. Toronto will go with a combination of Reed Johnson and professional hitter Matt Stairs in left. Eventually, the Blue Jays will have to determine if prospect Adam Lind is the real deal.

Alex Rios flashed some of what he's capable of last year. ( Al Messerschmidt / Getty Images)

Adam Lind — LF
2007 line: .238 BA, 290 AB, 34 R, 69 H, 14 2B, 0 3B, 11 HR, 46 RBI, 16 BB, 65 SO, .278 OBP, .678 OPS.
Significant stats/injuries: Ended the season with a 10-game hitting streak. Hit .251 against righthanders; went .194 against lefthanders. Hit .333 with runners in scoring position.
Scouting report: Fluid stroke. Good bat speed. Flashes power to right, right center. Inclined to pull off the ball. Struggles to handle the ball spinning away from him. Needs to hit to play. Subpar leftfielder. Lacks speed and range. Fringe-average arm.
Grade: 2.0.

Vernon Wells — CF
2007 line: .245 BA, 584 AB, 85 R, 143 H, 36 2B, 4 3B, 16 HR, 80 RBI, 49 BB, 89 SO, .304 OBP, .706 OPS.
Significant stats/injuries: Was shut down Sept. 20 for surgery to fix a torn labrum in his left shoulder. Hit .190 with runners in scoring position and two out.
Scouting report: Gap hitter. Aggressive approach. Bothered by a shoulder problem last year; looked uncomfortable at the plate. Didn't square up pitches he normally drives. Regularly pulled off balls on the outer half. Crushes fastballs thigh-high and down when he's going well. Has always struggled with fastballs up and sliders down and away. Natural CF. Gets great jumps on the ball and takes excellent angles. Plus arm.
Grade: 3.7.

Alex Rios — RF
2007 line: .297 BA, 643 AB, 114 R, 191 H, 43 2B, 7 3B, 24 HR, 85 RBI, 55 BB, 103 SO, .354 OBP, .852 OPS.
Significant stats/injuries: Led the Blue Jays with 17 SBs and hit a career-high 43 2Bs and 24 HRs. Hit safely in all 18 games against the Yankees (.338 BA).
Scouting report: Five-tool player. Quick bat. Uses the whole field. Turns on inner-half fastballs for power. Tends to get over-anxious and get on his front foot against offspeed stuff. First rate RF. Shows CF-type jumps and range. Throws very well from an unconventional three-quarters arm slot.
Grade: 3.7.

Reed Johnson — LF
2007 line: .236 BA, 275 AB, 31 R, 65 H, 13 2B, 2 3B, 2 HR, 14 RBI, 16 BB, 56 SO, .305 OBP, .625 OPS.
Significant stats/injuries: Limited to 79 games by a back injury. Hit .325 with both home runs against lefthanders. Hit just .171 in day games.
Scouting report: Short stroke. Right on top of the plate. Extremely aggressive. Likes the ball out over the plate and looks to hook it. Scuffles vs. righthanders. Chases a lot of pitches off the plate. Average LF. Played hurt last season. Doesn't always take the best routes to the ball, but finds a way to get there. Possesses a solid-to-average arm; gets rid of the ball quickly. Great competitor.
Grade: 2.0.

Organization/management

J.P. Ricciardi is an emotional guy who says what's on his mind — occasionally to his detriment. He's made some questionable moves, but club president Paul Godfrey and the ownership group continue to have faith in his judgment. He's under contract through 2010. After a turbulent 2006 season, manager John Gibbons learned his lesson and did a better job of keeping his emotions under wraps. Gibbons is a straight-shooting, John Wayne type who doesn't take much guff as a rule.

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