Angels may regret not going for A-Rod, Cabrera
In the Angels' case, it's this: Their nucleus soon could fragment, making it all the more curious that the team didn't sign Alex Rodriguez or trade for Miguel Cabrera during the off-season.
Consider the Angels' contractual countdown:
Closer Francisco Rodriguez, right-hander Jon Garland and third baseman Chone Figgins are free agents after this season, and left fielder Garrett Anderson could join them if the Angels pay him a $3 million buyout rather than exercise his $14 million option.
The Angels can retain right fielder Vladimir Guerrero and right-hander John Lackey for 2009 by exercising club-friendly options. Both of those cornerstones, however, will be free agents at the end of '09, as will right-hander Kelvim Escobar.
Obviously, the Angels will not lose all of those players, not when owner Arte Moreno is willing to pay $50 million for Gary Matthews Jr. one year and $90 million for Torii Hunter the next. But Rodriguez spoke of his possible departure the moment he walked into camp, Lackey would hit the jackpot on the open market and Guerrero could be an old 34 at the start of his next contract.
The addition of A-Rod, 32, or Cabrera, 24, not only would have given the Angels a spectacular short-term complement to Guerrero, but also ensured the presence of at least one franchise slugger long-term, presuming the Angels were willing to lock up Cabrera.
At the moment, the Angels' future nucleus consists of outfielders Hunter and Matthews Jr. and relievers Scot Shields and Justin Speier, all of whom are signed through '10 or beyond.
The team also controls younger, homegrown products such as first baseman Casey Kotchman and right-hander Ervin Santana for four more years, and second baseman Howie Kendrick, right-hander Jered Weaver and left-hander Joe Saunders for five.
Panic? Not the Angels' style.
"You have to plan," says new general manager Tony Reagins, the former farm director who took over for Bill Stoneman last October. "What we try to do is look three to five years down the line.
"There are contractual obligations that are going to come up that we have to address. The makeup of the team could change. There also is a possibility of keeping it together. You have to do your research and your homework and make decisions that make economic sense and more importantly baseball sense."
The Angels believed that signing A-Rod for a likely price of $300 million over 10 years did not make economic sense. And they concluded that the acquisition cost for Cabrera — Kendrick, catcher Jeff Mathis and high-end pitching in a four-player package — did not make baseball sense.
Neither position was unreasonable, and the Angels' reluctance to include Santana along with Class AAA righty Nick Adenhart in one of the Cabrera proposals already seems prescient; Santana, 25, will be needed to replace the injured Escobar at the start of the season, and still could mature into an effective starter.
Here's the problem: The Angels have yet to reach the World Series with Guerrero as their only true offensive force. Even if they kept Guerrero beyond '09 — a decision that would not be without risk — they likely would remain one slugger short. Hunter, for all his gifts, isn't that guy. Neither is infielder Brandon Wood, the team's top hitting prospect; one scout compares him to Travis Fryman, who was a five-time All-Star but not a monster.
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Worth a thousand words:
A-Rod and Cabrera are monsters.
If the Angels didn't want to give A-Rod 10 years at age 32, it's difficult to fault them. But Cabrera, who is nearly eight years younger, likely would have responded to the Angels' professionalism under Mike Scioscia the same way he has responded to the Tigers' culture under Jim Leyland. As one scout says, "It's like taking Miss America, making her even better-looking than she already is and putting her back in the pageant again."
The Tigers seem poised to sign Cabrera long-term, and the Angels could have done the same. Even in the worst-case scenario — the loss of Cabrera as a free agent after only two years — the Angels still could have justified meeting the Marlins' demands. Kendrick might be a future batting champion, but will never hit for as much power as Cabrera. Mathis needs to prove he can hit, period. Adenhart, for all his talent, is still only a prospect. And Santana remains an enigma.
In the broader view, the trade also would have created other possibilities. The acquisition of Cabrera (or A-Rod) would have made Wood expendable, enabling the Angels to recoup prospects in another deal. Figgins would have moved to second base, a position where players almost always seem to be in supply, cushioning his possible departure as a free agent.
The Mariners, who gave up five players for Orioles left-hander Erik Bedard without such contingencies, now loom as the most serious threat to the Angels in the American League West. As it turns out, the Angels' additions of Hunter and Garland might not have been enough.
The Angels remain unsettled at shortstop after trading Orlando Cabrera for Garland. Shields needs to re-establish himself as an elite setup man. Escobar is out with shoulder inflammation and Lackey has been contending with a sore elbow.
Scioscia also must delicately manage his outfield; Guerrero has said that he doesn't want to be used more often as a DH, even though the Angels' best defensive alignment probably is Anderson in left, Hunter in center and Matthews in right. Scioscia does not seem the least bit worried about keeping them all happy — "These guys want to win," he says. But there is a greater sense of unrest around the Angels than in years past, given the shortstop competition, outfield rotation and expiring contracts.
Make no mistake, the Angels remain the favorite in the division; the Mariners were outscored last season while finishing 88-74. Another post-season appearance would be the Angels' fifth in seven years, and their farm system keeps churning out players. Still, the what-if questions are bound to linger, and not just short-term.
Alex Rodriguez or Miguel Cabrera would have made that big a difference.
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