Hitting projections: Expect big stats from Howard
Either they've opened their wallets to bolster their pitching staffs, acquire a run generator in hopes of a run toward postseason glory, or they've purged any players who earn a significant salary.
All the while, we've been making our notes and scrawling arrows, circles and lines while exhausting our mechanical pencils to begin our respective quests for fantasy dominance.
With spring training now well underway and these units now rounding into shape, it's time to dust off the crystal ball once again. I'm continually tweaking my position-by-position and overall rankings with regularity, and now it's time to break it down by category.
In this latest edition of my preseason ramblings, I proffer my projections for the leaders in each of the standard five batting categories.
Batting Average
1. Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle: Ichiro leads all active players with a career .333 batting average. He's hit .350 or better in three of his seven major league seasons, and a "down" year was his career-low .303 mark in 2005.
2007 average: .351
2008 projection: .354
2. Matt Holliday, Colorado: Holliday makes hitting look easy in Coors Field with his career .363 mark. That's a phenomenal baseline and more than offsets his .273 road mark. His batting average has improved in each major league season.
2007 average: 340
2008 projection: .345
3. Derek Jeter, New York Yankees: Jeter's power numbers may have dipped, but he remains among the game's smartest hitters. He owns a huge .317 career batting average, having batting .291 or better in each season since becoming an everyday player in 1996. Some are talking about him as an MVP candidate in 2008, including teammate Alex Rodriguez. Jeter will need to approach his .344 batting average from 2006 to garner such attention. I'm not expecting a return to such heights, but a season in line with last year's totals sounds right to me.
2007 average: .322
2008 projection: .336
4. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit: Cabrera owns a career .313 batting average (.320 or better in three straight years) and now joins one of the game's top lineups. With the protection of Gary Sheffield and the other mashers in the Tigers lineup, he could boost his numbers in line with his 2006 season.
2007 average: .320
2008 projection: .334
5. Albert Pujols, St. Louis: Pujols owns a ridiculous .332 batting average during his seven-year major league career. I'm moderately concerned about the make-up of this St. Louis offense, but I'm more anxious about the status of his elbow. He'll continue to mash while in the lineup, and his plate discipline will yield a strong batting average.
2007 average: .327
2008 projection: .331
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6. Vladimir Guerrero, Los Angeles Angels: He's become the benchmark of consistency. Guerrero's hit .302 or better in each of his full major league seasons and is coming off a huge .324 showing in 2007. He has a stronger lineup around him in 2008, and I don't suspect we'll see any drop-off in performance.
2007 average: .324
2008 projection: .329
7. Chase Utley, Philadelphia: Utley missed 30 games last year, but we saw his batting eye take a huge step forward. He established a new career mark with his .332 batting average and reduced his strikeout rate. He receives protection from the presence of Ryan Howard in the Philadelphia lineup, and the top of the order will put pressure on opposing hurlers. Expect another huge year from fantasy's top second baseman.
2007 average: .332
2008 projection: .327
8. Edgar Renteria, Detroit: Renteria came to Detroit with much less fanfare than teammates Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, but his impact will be no less significant. He batted a career-best .332 with the Braves in 2007, the fourth time in his career he topped .300. He'll certainly see pitches to hit in this lineup.
2007 average: .332
2008 projection: .325
9. Garrett Atkins, Colorado: I'm optimistic that this is the year Atkins puts it all together. Yes, his overall totals in 2007 were impressive, but there was still significant room for improvement. He hit .349 at home in 2007 while batting a pedestrian .254 on the road. I anticipate a return to his 2006 form, when the drop-off from his home numbers to those earned on the road was less drastic.
2007 average: .301
2008 projection: .324
10. Todd Helton, Colorado: His power numbers have declined, but Helton remains one of the top average hitters in the game. He owns a career .367 batting average at Coors Field. He's never hit worse than .302 in a full season, the lone campaign during which he batted below .320 during his 10-year major league career.
2007 average: .320
2008 projection: .323
11. David Wright, New York Mets: The "other" third baseman in New York continues to grow in New York and garner more attention of his own. Wright hit .325, a new career mark and the third straight .300 season of this young star's career. He'll continue to benefit from the distraction caused by Jose Reyes on the basepaths.
2007 average: .325
2008 projection: .321
12. Michael Young, Texas: The former AL batting champ looks to regain his power stroke in 2008, but his keen batting eye never faltered. Young rapped out 200 hits for the fifth consecutive season in 2007, earning a strong .315 batting average. I anticipate another strong showing alongside Ian Kinsler with additional protection afforded by a rejuvenated Hank Blalock.
2007 average: .315
2008 projection: .319
13. Hanley Ramirez, Florida: Ramirez will undoubtedly be affected by the loss of Cabrera from the Florida lineup and the protection he afforded. However, his skills are just too strong to be denied. He hit .345 at Dolphin Stadium in 2007 and continues to mature at the plate.
2007 average: .332
2008 projection: .319
14. David Ortiz, Boston: Ortiz established a new career mark with his .332 batting average in 2007. He also racked up 182 hits, another career high. It was the third season in the past five that he finished with a batting average of .300. His home run total may have dipped last year, but his overall production was phenomenal.
2007 average: .332
2008 projection: .317
15. Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees: Rodriguez produced a strong .314 batting average in 2007 while posting absurd home run totals. He possesses a tremendous .306 career batting average and has hit .300 or better in eight different seasons (.285 or better in every full season). This lineup is loaded, and A-Rod's set for another fabulous campaign.
2007 average: .314
2008 projection: .316
Home Runs
1. Ryan Howard, Philadelphia: Howard fanned nearly 200 times in 2007, the lone hole in his otherwise brilliant game. That number should fall a little, but it shouldn't be a precipitous decline. After all, he whiffed 181 times in his breakout 2006 season. Regardless, he's slammed 105 home runs in the past two years (one per 10.57 at-bats).
2007 home runs: 47
2008 projection: 51
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| Jim Thome is flying under the radar this season, but he provides big-time power stats. (Jonathan Daniel / Getty Images) |
2. Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees: Rodriguez has led the AL in home runs in five of the past seven years. Interestingly, he "flopped" with 36 and 35-homer seasons in the past two even-numbered campaigns. He'll send Yankee Stadium out with a bang.
2007 home runs: 54
2008 projection: 49
3. Prince Fielder, Milwaukee: Fielder slammed 50 home runs at the age of 23. Could bigger things be in the hopper for 2008? Well, his vegetarianism is intriguing, but gets trumped by his saltiness over his contract. A full season alongside Ryan Braun means trouble for NL Central pitchers.
2007 home runs: 50
2008 projection: 46
4. Adam Dunn, Cincinnati: He's not going to offer you much in the way of batting average, and his stolen base total's never approached the heights set in 2002 when he swiped 19. However, Dunn uses the home field of Great American Ballpark to his advantage. He owns a current streak of four consecutive 40-home run seasons. Expect more of the same in 2008.
2007 home runs: 40
2008 projection: 42
5. David Ortiz, Boston: Ortiz experienced a huge dip in power production from his 2006 total, but he still slammed 35 home runs in a "down" year. He's averaged 44.3 home runs during the past four seasons. I anticipate a return to form in 2008.
2007 home runs: 35
2008 projection: 40
6. Jim Thome, Chicago White Sox: Thome quietly racked up 35 home runs during the 2007 season. It was quiet because he missed 32 games during a terrible season for the White Sox. He's hit 30 or more home runs in 11 of the past 12 seasons. His injury history is a concern, but hitting at U.S. Cellular Field helps to cure all ills.
2007 home runs: 35
2008 projection: 39
6. Ryan Braun, Milwaukee: Braun's 2007 season has become the stuff of legend. He dominated pitchers in spring training and was sent back to the minors for fielding work. He returned to the field and ripped 34 home runs in just 113 games. Now in left field for 2008, he'll be able to focus on his hitting and may just blast past his 2007 dominance.
2007 home runs: 34
2008 projection: 39
8. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit: Cabrera's licking his chops to be part of such a potent lineup in Detroit. He blasted 33 or more home runs in three of the past four seasons despite playing in Dolphin Stadium without much protection in the lineup. That all changes in 2008.
2007 home runs: 34
2008 projection: 38
8. Alfonso Soriano, Chicago Cubs: He's one of the poster boys for the five-tool club and serves as the proverbial linchpin to the hopes of Cubs fans in 2008. Soriano's hit 28 or more home runs in six consecutive seasons (33 or more home runs in five of them). The Cubs have a loaded lineup for 2008, and he'll benefit from the power brokers in the middle of the lineup.
2007 home runs: 33
2008 projection: 38
10. Lance Berkman, Houston: Health concerns about Berkman have waned following his tremendous 2007 season. He blasted 34 home runs, marking his fifth year in the past seven during which he hit 30 or more home runs. Teamed with Carlos Lee and Miguel Tejada (assuming he isn't suspended), he may blow past those totals in 2008.
2007 home runs: 34
2008 projection: 37
11. Carlos Pena, Tampa Bay: The former first-round pick had shown power potential over several seasons in Detroit. After a lost 2006 season in Boston, Pena received an opportunity to place everyday in Tampa and never looked back. His high strikeout rate is somewhat disconcerting, but we're more concerned about what happens when he makes contact. I suspect there will be a drop-off in production in 2008, but he'll still rank among the league's best.
2007 home runs: 46
2008 projection: 36
11. Mark Teixeira, Atlanta: Teixeira homered 30 times in 2007 as he split time between Texas and Atlanta. His home run rate soared upon his arrival in Atlanta, and he just might approach the heights established in 2005 when he slammed 43. He's hit 26 or more home runs in each of his five major league seasons.
2007 home runs: 30
2008 projection: 36
13. Justin Morneau, Minnesota: The former AL MVP experienced a significant drop-off in production in 2007, but there was no obvious reason for the dip. Morneau's strikeout rate was essentially the same while he drew more walks, yet his batting average fell 50 points. He still slammed 31 home runs, and I'm calling for a new career mark in 2008 as he assumes more of a leadership position with the departures of Johan Santana and Torii Hunter.
2007 home runs: 31
2008 projection: 35
13. Travis Hafner, Cleveland: I'm calling for the return of "Pronk" in 2008 after he suffered through a disappointing season in 2007. Hafner hit 18 fewer home runs in 2007 than he had in 2006 and saw his batting average drop 44 points. He's a prime candidate for a bounce-back campaign in this potent Cleveland lineup.
2007 home runs: 24
2008 projection: 35
15. Paul Konerko, Chicago White Sox: Konerko blasted 30 home runs for the fourth consecutive seasons. Unfortunately, he saw his batting average drop off of the map, but it didn't impact his power stroke (65 extra-base hits). He's averaged 36.8 home runs per season during this stretch.
2007 home runs: 31
2008 projection: 34
RBI
1. Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees: Rodriguez led all of baseball with 156 RBI in 2007. He's ranked inside the top five in the AL in six consecutive seasons. The Yankee lineup's loaded to generate huge run output in 2008.
2007 RBI: 156
2008 projection: 140
2. Ryan Howard, Philadelphia: Howard dominated opposing pitchers for the second straight season, driving in 136 runs to follow up his ridiculous 2006 campaign of 149. If only he could reduce his strikeout total markedly, the results could be frightening. Of course, he may not produce such prodigious blasts. So, don't change a thing! Shane Victorino, Jimmy Rollins and Utley will set the table for another monster year for this first sacker.
2007 RBI: 136
2008 projection: 137
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| Vladimir Guerrero is excellent in the fantasy hitting categories of runs, home runs, RBI and average. (Stephen Dunn / Getty Images) |
3. David Ortiz, Boston: The sky is falling! OK, Ortiz's power numbers dipped in 2007, but he still plated 117 runners. He ripped 88 extra-base hits and will certainly have runners onboard to earn his sixth consecutive 100-RBI campaign.
2007 RBI: 117
2008 projection: 132
4. Matt Holliday, Colorado: Holliday looks to extend his streak of 100-RBI seasons to three, and it's essentially a given if he can stay healthy. His ridiculous totals at Coors Field establish a tremendous baseline, and teammates Atkins and Brad Hawpe just continue to improve. I anticipate another monster year from him in 2008.
2007 RBI: 137
2008 projection: 130
5. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit: I won't belabor the point. This 24-year-old wunderkind owns a four-year streak of 100-RBI seasons and now joins the potent Detroit lineup. Just put another one on the board.
2007 RBI: 119
2008 projection: 127
6. Mark Teixeira, Atlanta: Teixeira owns a streak of four consecutive 100-RBI campaigns coming into the 2008 season. He's part of a strong lineup and appeared to be rejuvenated by his move to Atlanta in 2007. Look for continued dominance from this slugging first baseman.
2007 RBI: 105
2008 projection: 125
7. Carlos Lee, Houston: Lee earned the third 100-RBI season of his career (119 marked a career high) during his first year with the Astros. He tied a career high with 32 home runs last year and now has a better lineup around him. With Michael Bourn and company loading the bases ahead of him, he'll top the century mark again.
2007 RBI: 119
2008 projection: 123
8. Magglio Ordonez, Detroit: It's amazing what can happen when you're healthy. Ordonez earned his second straight 100-RBI season, and sixth of his career, with the Tigers in 2007. His amazing total of 139 RBI came without the protection of Sheffield in the lineup for much of the year and established a new career high. He just might reach those heights once again in this loaded lineup.
2007 RBI: 139
2008 projection: 120
9. Prince Fielder, Milwaukee: He made a huge leap in production during his second full year with the Brewers and now seeks to repeat the feat in 2008. Fielder certainly has a strong team around him to set the table. I'd be shocked if he didn't match last year's heights (barring injury, of course).
2007 RBI: 119
2008 projection: 117
10. Vladimir Guerrero, Los Angeles Angels: Guerrero's been one of the most consistent performers in the game for a decade. He's topped 100 RBI in nine of the past 10 seasons. The Angels have bolstered their lineup with the addition of Hunter, so I'm expecting Guerrero to earn his 10th 100-RBI season in 2008.
2007 RBI: 125
2008 projection: 115
11. Travis Hafner, Cleveland: Despite a down year in the power department, Hafner still produced his fourth consecutive 100-RBI season. Batting alongside Victor Martinez and Grady Sizemore, he's likely to approach huge totals once again.
2007 RBI: 100
2008 projection: 114
11. Manny Ramirez, Boston: He's flying under the radar on draft day after missing significant time for the second straight year. Ramirez has driven in 88 or more runs in every season since 1995. I anticipate a bounce-back season this year, as he earns his 12th 100-RBI campaign.
2007 RBI: 88
2008 projection: 114
13. Carlos Pena, Tampa Bay: Pena produced a surprise 46-home run campaign with the Rays in 2007. He's primed for another huge year, as the Rays have a lineup to be reckoned with in 2008. B.J. Upton and Carl Crawford will afford him with ample RBI opportunities this year.
2007 RBI: 121
2008 projection: 113
14. David Wright, New York Mets: Wright continues to evolve as a hitter in a potent Mets lineup. He's produced three consecutive 100-RBI seasons and will undoubtedly hit the mark again with Reyes and Carlos Beltran on the basepaths.
2007 RBI: 107
2008 projection: 112
14. Gary Sheffield, Detroit: Sheffield's one of the more intriguing players to watch on draft day. He's missed significant time during the past two years, so he definitely carries significant risk. However, I'm optimistic he's healthy enough to take full advantage of this potent Detroit lineup. He drove in 75 runs in 133 games last year.
2007 RBI: 75
2008 projection: 112
Runs
1. Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia: Rollins helps his own run total with an improving power stroke (30 home runs in 2007) and speed (41 thefts). He's produced 190 or more hits in four consecutive seasons, helping to set the table for Utley and Howard. If this unit can stay healthy, he may approach last year's ridiculous total. Remember, Utley missed significant time because of injury.
2007 runs: 139
2008 projection: 141
2. Jose Reyes, New York Mets: Reyes has ranked fourth in the NL in runs scored in back-to-back years. The Mets are stacked, and he's still maturing at the plate. I'm most intrigued by his rising walk rate.
2007 runs: 119
2008 projection: 134
3, Alex Rodriguez, New York Yankees: A-Rod spots himself 50 runs by slamming balls into the bleachers. He's also walked 90 or more times in three consecutive seasons, helping to set the table for the back half of the Yankee lineup. He's scored 100 or more runs in 12 consecutive seasons.
2007 runs: 143
2008 projection: 133
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| If Detroit's Gary Sheffield can avoid injury, he's an offensive fantasy machine. (Otto Greule, Jr. / Getty Images) |
4. Grady Sizemore, Cleveland: Sizemore's massive strikeout total is keeping him from joining the ranks of the elite, but it's hard to deny his value in the potent Cleveland lineup. He's scored 378 runs during the past three years (126 per year), fueled by a heavy extra-base hit total and an increasing walk rate. He walked 101 times last year, and will benefit from a bounce-back season from Hafner.
2007 runs: 118
2008 projection: 130
5. Curtis Granderson, Detroit: Granderson took a huge step forward in 2007, dropping his strikeout rate while ripping an incredible number of extra-base hits. He's a top-tier performer who will benefit greatly from the acquisition of Cabrera.
2007 runs: 122
2008 projection: 128
6. Gary Sheffield, Detroit: Sheffield's run total from 2007 tells you everything you need to know about this squad. He scored 107 runs despite missing 29 games last year. If he can stay healthy, he can top that total easily as part of this lineup.
2007 runs: 107
2008 projection: 125
7. Matt Holliday, Colorado: Holliday's become a four-category monster (adding a few stolen bases to boot) in a jam-packed Rockies lineup. He established a new career mark with 120 runs scored, fueled partially by an increase in his walk rate. He's established himself as one of the game's top outfielders, and there's no reason to suspect a downturn in production is in the offing.
2007 runs: 120
2008 projection: 124
7. Alfonso Soriano, Chicago Cubs: Soriano narrowly missed notching the fifth 100-run season of his career despite missing 27 games in 2007. Expectations are high for the Chicago offense, and this five-tool performer will be the catalyst.
2007 runs: 97
2008 projection: 124
9. Bobby Abreu, New York Yankees: Abreu scored a career-high total of 123 runs in his first full season with the Yankees. He draws a sizable number of walks each season (84 or more in 10 consecutive years) while rapping out a huge doubles total (40 in 2007). Batting in this lineup, he'll be part of a veritable conga line around the bases.
2007 runs: 123
2008 projection: 121
10. Magglio Ordonez, Detroit: Ordonez scored a career-high 117 runs as an MVP candidate in 2007. He ripped 82 extra-base hits last year, putting himself in a position to trot home on singles. He welcomes the addition of Cabrera and the return of a healthy Sheffield. This could be the highest-scoring unit in the game.
2007 runs: 117
2008 projection: 120
11. David Ortiz, Boston: Big Papi starts his run to a huge run total with his sizable home run total each year. He then boosts the total by drawing a ton of walks (102 or more in three straight seasons). Ortiz has scored an average of 116.7 runs per year during the past three seasons.
2007 runs: 116
2008 projection: 117
12. Derek Jeter, New York Yankees: A-Rod contends that Jeter could be primed for "an MVP season." Whether that occurs is up for debate. What can't be discounted is Jeter's role in the Yankees' potent lineup. He owns a fabulous .317 career batting average and has scored 102 or more runs in 11 of the past 12 seasons (he scored 87 times despite missing 43 games in 2003). Mark down another huge run total in ink.
2007 runs: 102
2008 projection: 116
13. Hanley Ramirez, Florida: There have been concerns about Ramirez's shoulder entering camp, but it appears he's put those to rest. However, the loss of Cabrera from the Florida lineup can't be minimized. I still expect him to rank among the leaders, as his own power numbers and stolen base totals will put him in position to score a ton.
2007 runs: 125
2008 projection: 115
14. Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle: Despite the struggles of Richie Sexson, Ichiro still ranked eighth in the AL in runs scored with 111. He plays everyday and sports a career .333 batting average. As such, he'll have ample opportunities to fly around the bases once again.
2007 runs: 111
2008 projection: 114
15. Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston: Ellsbury's battling Coco Crisp for the starting center field slot in Boston. If he can win the role, he'll have ample scoring opportunities in the potent Boston offense that ranks among the top units annually. 2007 runs: 20
2008 projection: 111
Stolen Bases
1. Jose Reyes, New York Mets: Reyes continues to be aggressive on the basepaths. He's led the NL in stolen bases in three straight years. Additionally, he's drawing more walks. I anticipate the establishment of a new career mark in 2008.
2007 stolen bases: 78
2008 projection: 84
2. Hanley Ramirez, Florida: Ramirez burst onto the scene as a five-tool hero in 2007. The removal of Cabrera from the lineup portends to more aggressiveness on the basepaths and perhaps a more sizable stolen base total. He's swiped 51 bases in back-to-back years to rank third in the NL.
2007 stolen bases: 51
2008 projection: 58
3. Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay: This young Tampa star's been a fantasy favorite for years. Crawford's earned at least a share of the AL stolen base lead in four of the past five seasons. He's averaged 53.6 stolen bases per season during this stretch, including a career-high mark of 59 in 2004. He'll be sure to be among the leaders once again in the always-aggressive Tampa lineup.
2007 stolen bases: 50
2008 projection: 55
4. Brian Roberts, Baltimore: The Orioles are in rebuilding mode, and it's still possible that Roberts is the next to be dealt. In the interim, I anticipate another mountain of stolen base attempts by this speed merchant. He tied for the AL lead with 50 stolen bases in 2007.
2007 stolen bases: 50
2008 projection: 53
5. Chone Figgins, Los Angeles Angels: This versatile fantasy favorite has ranked inside the top three in the AL in stolen bases in four consecutive seasons. Figgins swiped 41 bases in 2007, his third straight year with at least 40 thefts. As the full-time third baseman, he's the firestarter for this Angels offense.
2007 stolen bases: 41
2008 projection: 48
6. Juan Pierre, Los Angeles Dodgers: Pierre's ranked among the elite in this category for years, ranking first or second in the NL in seven consecutive seasons. His 64 stolen bases in '07 marked the second-highest total of his career. It'll be interesting to see how his role develops in 2008 given the strength of the outfield depth in Los Angeles. He may need a change of venue reach such heights once again.
2007 stolen bases: 64
2008 projection: 47
7. Shane Victorino, Philadelphia: As expected, Victorino became a top speed option for the potent Philadelphia offense in 2007. He stole 37 bases despite missing 31 games. If he can stay healthy, he could challenge for the second slot in the NL behind Reyes.
2007 stolen bases: 37
2008 projection: 45
8. Rajai Davis, San Francisco: Davis stole 22 bases in just 75 games between the Pirates and Giants in 2008. The Giants will need to work to generate runs by any means necessary in the post-Bonds world, and Davis will be called upon to jumpstart the offense.
2007 stolen bases: 22
2008 projection: 40
9. Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia: The reigning NL MVP has become a strong all-around player with the development of Utley and Howard. However, he hasn't lost sight of the need for speed. He has stolen 30 or more bases in six consecutive seasons.
2007 stolen bases: 41
2008 projection: 38
10. Michael Bourn, Houston: Bourn swiped 18 bases as a pinch-runner and part-time player in Philadelphia last season. As a full-time outfielder in Houston, he could be a late-round gem for owners in 2008.
2007 stolen bases: 18
2008 projection: 37
11. Willy Taveras, Colorado: Taveras has been one of the game's top speed merchants for the past three years, averaging 33.3 stolen bases between Houston and Colorado. He's averaged 43 stolen base attempts per season during this period.
2007 stolen bases: 33
2008 projection: 35
12. Eric Byrnes, Arizona: Byrnes enjoyed a career year with 50 stolen bases in 2007, doubling his 2006 total. I expect a regression in his stolen base total this year, but his aggressiveness and the style of ball employed by the Diamondbacks will still put him among the leaders in 2008.
2007 stolen bases: 50
2008 projection: 34
12. Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle: Ichiro remains one of the top speed merchants in the game, having stolen 31 or more bases in each of his seven major league seasons. He's ranked near the top of the AL ranks each season. Although he hasn't approached the total of 56 stolen bases he earned as a rookie, he's about as consistent as they come. He's missed just 16 games in seven seasons.
2007 stolen bases: 37
2008 projection: 34
14. Corey Hart, Milwaukee: Hart attempted 30 thefts in his first full season with the Brewers and batted .295. If he can improve his walk total (36 in 541 plate appearances), he'll set the basepaths ablaze.
2007 stolen bases: 23
2008 projection: 33
15. Carlos Beltran, New York Mets: Beltran remains a five-tool threat, although his stolen base totals have dipped since he joined the Mets. He's stolen 23 or more bases in six of the past nine seasons. Last year, he stole 23 bases despite missing 18 games. His recovery from off-season arthroscopic knee surgery's been slow, but I expect him to be ready for another stellar campaign as the calendar flips to April.
2007 stolen bases: 23
2008 projection: 29
Next: Pitching projections: Category leaders
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