by Dayn Perry

Updated: March 18, 2008, 3:16 PM EST 43 comments

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Of course, reading too much into spring-training results is foolish in the extreme, but it's still hard not to notice what's happening with the Rays. They've shown quite a bit of vim and vigor in Grapefruit League play (you know, feuding with the mighty Yankees and all that), and they're also winning games.

That's quite a change for the team that's finished in last place in all but one season. In fact, not only is the first winning season in franchise history a likelihood, but — believe it or not — contending is also a possibility.

Let's repeat that in case it didn't register: the Tampa Bay Rays have the potential to contend in 2008. They're in a brutal division and have the odds against them, but this is a much better team than most fans and observers realize.

The Rays managed just 66 wins last season, and their pitching was predictably awful. Tampa ranked a tolerable eighth in the American League in runs scored, but the defense and pitching staff coughed up a whopping 944 runs on the season.

In a related matter, the Rays ranked 13th in the 14-team AL in rotation ERA and dead last in bullpen ERA with a grisly mark of 6.16. When it comes to keeping runs off the board, the Rays obviously have much work to do.

However, on that front they should be much better in 2008. The front of the rotation is in good shape with incumbents Scott Kazmir (who's likely to open the season on the disabled list with elbow discomfort, but it's not believed to be a serious injury) and James Shields.

Troy Percival may stabilize the Rays' poor bullpen. (Paul Sancya / Associated Press)

Just as important is the trade that nabbed right-hander Matt Garza in exchange for outfielder Delmon Young. Garza, 24, is absolutely ready to thrive at the highest level. He boasts a mid-90s fastball, plus breaking stuff and an improving changeup. To boot, Garza last season posted a nifty 3.69 ERA in 83.0 innings with Minnesota. Going forward, he'll have the most upside of anyone on the Tampa staff, save for Kazmir.

On the whole, Kazmir, Garza and Shields form a one-two-three punch that will be the envy of almost every team in baseball. As for the back of the rotation, it won't be long before Wade Davis and David Price, two of the best pitching prospects in the game today, are ready to contribute in the majors.

As well, Andrew Sonnanstine is a serious breakout candidate in 2008. Simply put, the Tampa rotation ceases to be a liability from this point forward.

The bullpen still isn't a source of strength, but the addition of Troy Percival (1.80 ERA with St. Louis last season) should help them greatly in the late innings. The middle-relief corps is roundly uninspiring, but Eduardo Morlan is on the way; and the Rays might also consider giving starter prospects like Jacob McGee and Jeff Niemann some transition time in the major-league bullpen.

Considering the number of starters on the way, Tampa can get creative in finding internal bullpen solutions — rotation depth allows you to do that.

The offense? It's also going to be improved. Third baseman Evan Longoria is the odds-on favorite to win AL Rookie-of-the-Year honors, Akinori Iwamura is going to put up strong numbers by second-base standards, B.J. Upton and Carl Crawford are another year closer to their prime seasons, and Dioner Navarrao is a strong bounce-back candidate.

The Rays could use an upgrade at DH (Barry Bonds would be an ideal fit) and a platoon partner for Jonny Gomes in right, but overall the offense should rank in the top five in the AL in runs scored.

All of it adds up to a team that's poised to make a big leap forward in 2008, and it so happens that a few of the major projections systems agree with that assessment.

If you check out this document, which comes to us courtesy of the excellent Squawking Baseball, then you'll see that, on average, the Rays are tabbed for 85 wins.

It's also worth noting that over at Baseball Prospectus, the PECOTA projection system has Tampa's winning 89 games in the upcoming season. That, folks, is called contention, even in the Red Sox and Yankees' division.

The Rays have excellent young talent already in the majors, the best farm system in baseball, and the top overall pick in the June draft.

As such, the future in Tampa is uncommonly bright: in a few years, this team will have the potential to be the power team in the AL. However, Tampa's future is arriving more quickly than many realize. It's not likely they'll wind up with a postseason berth in 2008, but they've got a puncher's chance.

As strange as it sounds, it's time to take the Tampa Bay Rays seriously.

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