by Ken Rosenthal

This season should be different. Fifteen of the 30 teams have changed managers within the past two years. Most of the new hires received multi-year deals; only three managers are entering the final years of their contracts.

Of those, the Braves' Bobby Cox long ago earned immunity from the hot seat. That leaves only the Blue Jays' John Gibbons and Orioles' Dave Trembley in immediate jeopardy.

Trembley, barring a clubhouse mutiny, likely will be given a pass; the Orioles do not expect to win in their first year of rebuilding. Gibbons, who is entering his fourth season, is indeed under scrutiny, as is the Jays' GM, J.P. Ricciardi, who is entering his seventh year.

Other managers to watch in '08: Dusty Baker, Reds — Criticized in the past for relying too heavily on veterans, Baker takes over a club brimming with talented youngsters. By winning in Cincinnati, Baker could repair the damage to his reputation that occurred during his final two seasons in Chicago. Tony La Russa, Cards — If he was going to leave, it would have been after last season, after the Cardinals fired his longtime associate, GM Walt Jocketty. Instead, La Russa signed a two-year extension, even with the team seemingly headed for a downturn. Charlie Manuel, Phillies — Should be safe after receiving an extension through '09; Pat Gillick, in his final season as GM, will be highly reluctant to make a change. Then again, a manager in Philadelphia is only one blunder away from the hot seat . . . and Manuel's in-game strategy is a never-ending source of fodder. John McLaren, M's — Expectations are soaring following the additions of Erik Bedard and Carlos Silva to the starting rotation. McLaren, signed through '09, hired a veteran coaching staff to assist him in his first full season, but the M's will need to avoid a repeat of the 1-13 slide that doomed them down the stretch. Otherwise, G.M. Bill Bavasi could be in trouble, and his replacement ultimately might dismiss McLaren. Lou Piniella, Cubs — His second season should be smoother than his first; his roster is more complete. Piniella, signed through '09, will become a legend if he leads the Cubs to their first World Series title in 100 years. But if the team somehow disappoints, it could mark the beginning of the end. Ron Washington, Rangers — Washington had growing pains in his first season, but the Rangers were 49-43 after June 19 despite trading Mark Teixeira, Ron Mahay and Eric Gagne on July 31. GM Jon Daniels exercised the '09 option on Washington's contract at the end of August, but another disappointing season and the hiring of new team president Nolan Ryan could alter the equation. — Ken Rosenthal

Yet, Gibbons is not alone. While a rash of in-season firings is unlikely, the stress level is high for several managers of high-revenue clubs, and certain managers of mid- and low-revenue teams also could end up in trouble.

For some, the hot seat already is warm.

Willie Randolph, Mets: As if presiding over the Mets' historic late-season collapse wasn't bad enough, Randolph now must contend with the must-win environment created by the addition of left-hander Johan Santana for four prospects and $137.5 million.

Anything less than a postseason berth — and maybe a first-round playoff triumph — could endanger both Randolph and GM Omar Minaya, both of whom are signed through 2009.

Randolph did not deserve to be fired after last season. His lack of outward passion drew criticism, but if he had shown more emotion, he might have given the appearance of panic. Several of his pitching decisions backfired, but some of those missteps reflected a lack of suitable options, which goes back to Minaya.

Strategy often is less important than personality; Charlie Manuel's greatest strength with the Phillies is his knack for keeping the team positive through periods of adversity. Tough-minded players help; the Phillies possess a certain swagger. Randolph's most accomplished position players, Carlos Beltran and Carlos Delgado, are not leaders.

No one in the Mets' clubhouse could rescue a sinking Jose Reyes last September; Pedro Martinez laments that he was absent for too long last season to assert himself in September. Perhaps Martinez, Santana and third baseman David Wright will help the leadership void. One thing is certain: Improved pitching would make Randolph look a lot smarter.

John Gibbons, Blue Jays: This is it. The Jays must reach the postseason — or come awfully close — for Gibbons and possibly Ricciardi to return. The team is again good enough to make such a run, but only if healthy. Gibbons will need to show greater care with his starting pitchers and take whatever other measures are necessary to ensure that his best players remain on the field.

Again, leadership often must come from within the clubhouse, and the additions of third baseman Scott Rolen and shortstop David Eckstein will help create a sense of urgency that was missing in previous seasons. The successful return of closer B.J. Ryan from elbow-ligament transplant surgery would add another intensely competitive presence while making the Jays' bullpen potentially one of the best in the league.

Even amid disappointment, the Jays did not lack for positive developments last season — Aaron Hill and Alex Rios matured into stars, a number of young pitchers emerged as valued contributors and the team's defense was the most efficient in the majors. Gibbons, like any manager, deserves credit for the good as well as the bad.

Ned Yost, Brewers: GM Doug Melvin picked up Yost's option for '09 at the end of last season, but failed to reveal the news until February. A cynic might suggest that Melvin feared a fan uprising, considering that the Brewers failed to hold an 8 1/2-game lead in the NL Central last season, going 59-69 after their 24-10 start.

Yost, entering his sixth year, previously worked as a coach under Cox, but managing in his first pennant race, he did not show the same gift for handling pressure as his former mentor. One member of last year's team says Yost added to the tension by holding meetings before every series down the stretch. Yost also had a dugout altercation with catcher Johnny Estrada and infielder Tony Graffanino in August and engaged in a costly beanball exchange with the Cardinals in late September.

The greater issue, perhaps, was Yost's bullpen management: The Brewers tied for the major-league lead by losing 16 games after leading by three or more runs — and 12 of those defeats, according to Baseball Prospectus, occurred after July 28, indicating that the bullpen simply wore down.

Melvin responded by acquiring pitchers who could work more than one inning — Salomon Torres, Guillermo Mota, David Riske — as complements to new closer Eric Gagne. The Brewers' defense also should be much-improved. If Ben Sheets stays healthy, Yost will have more reason to relax — he will be managing one of the best teams in the NL.

Joe Girardi, Yankees: Yes, he's replacing Joe Torre, but the greater pressure actually is on GM Brian Cashman, who staked his future on the team's young pitching than meet the Twins' demands for Santana. Cashman is far more likely than Girardi to be blamed if the Yankees stumble, especially if Santana enjoys a big season with the Mets.

This much already is clear: Girardi is not Torre. Many of the Yankees' veterans arrived at spring training in better condition than they were a year ago, and Girardi's intense conditioning program took them to an even higher level. Girardi clearly is demanding, but he relates to players well. He was a member of the Yankees from 1996 to '99, his playing career lasted until 2003 and the '06 Marlins revered him.

The true tests, of course, will come when the Yankees lose seven of nine, or when Girardi must come down hard on a veteran player who once was his peer. Girardi, always prepared, seems ready for every possibility. He almost certainly learned from his mistakes in Florida, where he squabbled with his superiors and perhaps leaned too heavily on his young pitchers. It will be an upset if he does not become a good manager.

Joe Torre, Dodgers The hot seat burns hotter in some places than others; Torre, accustomed to the frequent threat of dismissal with the Yankees, probably views his new position as a cool, comfy lounge chair. Still, the Dodgers are in transition, and the NL West might be even more competitive than the AL East. As Grady Little can attest, the job isn't easy.

Second baseman Jeff Kent and third baseman Nomar Garciaparra are nearing the ends of their careers. Juan Pierre, a $44.5 million free-agent investment, will be unhappy if he is reduced to a part-time outfielder. Andruw Jones, the new center fielder, looks heavy coming off a season in which he batted .222.

None of the Dodgers' issues — including the maturation of young players such as right fielder Matt Kemp — is markedly different than anything Torre faced in New York. He and his coaches already have made an impact; one Dodgers veteran says the increased accountability was evident from the start of spring training.

Yes, the demands of the job are high, but Torre, 67, is secure with a three-year, $13 million contract, and motivated to prove the Yankees wrong. He's not going to flop the way Davey Johnson did with the Dodgers at the end of his managerial career.

Ozzie Guillen, White Sox: No manager has more security than Guillen, who is signed through 2012. But Guillen says he will not necessarily hold the White Sox to the contract, recently telling the Chicago Sun-Times that if the team again stumbles, he will approach owner Jerry Reinsdorf and say, "We can talk about something different. You can rip up my contract and do a new one, less years. You won't have to pay me for this."

Guillen has vowed to be more outspoken than he was last season, less tolerant of mistakes. His volatility alone keeps him permanently on the hot seat, but barring some unexpected, momentous trauma, Guillen almost certainly will remain safe ... maybe all the way to 2012.

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