Braves have the goods to be October surprise
Team-by-team previews
Not that you ever need prompting to rip apart the latest ill-informed splattering from the mainstream media, but here's an invitation on a gold-engraved, all-but-autographed platter:
Embarrassing as it is to admit, my annual column predicting which team will win the World Series often defies sabermetric orthodoxy, not to mention conventional logic. Sort of like baseball itself.
Statistical analysis is an invaluable tool; that discussion is over. But we've gotten to the point where everyone from the casual fantasy player to the shrewdest GM wants to know the end of the story before Chapter One is written.
Mercifully, that's not how the game works.
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A recap of my last five picks: 2007 — The Tigers are the fashionable pick, and I am all about fashionable. However, the Tigers are doomed by injuries to two key pitchers, Kenny Rogers and Joel Zumaya, and regressions by two others, Jeremy Bonderman and Nate Robertson. Ah, but at least the NL goes according to form. Everyone nails the Rockies-Diamondbacks NLCS, right? 2006 — Journalistic makeup call backfires. After spending the off-season criticizing Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi for his lavish additions of B.J. Ryan, A.J. Burnett and Troy Glaus, I pick the Jays to win the Series. Instead of placating Ricciardi, I only aggravate him further — he jokingly accuses me of raising expectations so I can rip him again! The Jays finish 87-75, their best record since '98, and beat out the Red Sox for second place. But they don't get anywhere near the postseason. 2005 — Picking the Yankees isn't unreasonable; they win the AL East before losing to the Angels in the DS. But I go with the Yankees based on their additions of — ahem — Jaret Wright and Carl Pavano. Of course, my sin isn't as great as actually signing Wright and Pavano. But never mind. 2004 — Pretty good call: Red Sox over Cubs. Never mind that the Cubs finish 16 games behind the Cardinals. And that the Red Sox need to trade Nomar Garciaparra at mid-season to win their first Series since 1918. It's a victory in the ol' scorebook, right? 2003 — I boldly anoint the Twins, prompting this response from then-first baseman Doug Mientkiewicz: "You're crazy." The Twins win the AL Central and the first game of the Division Series before the Yankees prove Mientkiewicz to be an astute judge of my psychiatric state. — Ken Rosenthal |
The 2005 White Sox, '06 Cardinals and '07 Rockies were among the recent World Series clubs that defied the supposed experts, myself included. Some other team will do the same this season, reminding us again that baseball's unpredictability is part of what makes the game so much fun.
Bloggers, man your keyboards!
My choice to win it all is the Braves.
As the accompanying sidebar suggests, I've been largely unsuccessful with my pre-season selections over the years. But then, who hasn't?
The proper time to write a predictions column is actually Aug. 1 or even Sept. 1, after teams adjust their rosters through trades. But such a late analysis would be a copout, and even then, there would be a decent chance of looking like an idiot. Few imagined last Sept. 1 that the Rockies would make the playoffs and the Mets would not.
Anyway, here are my general rules for a preseason forecast, knowing that Eliot Spitzer stands a greater chance of being president in 2012 than I do of nailing one of these suckers outright:
Never pick the Red Sox.
Never pick the Yankees.
Never pick a National League team unless under the influence of imagination-enhancing drugs.
To which — forgive me, Rep. Henry Waxman! — I plead guilty.
The Red Sox, winners of two of the last four World Series, probably are the best team on paper. But picking them is like picking the smartest kid in class to finish with the highest SAT. Besides, the only way for a team to win back-to-back Series is to keep its pitching intact through three postseason rounds for two straight years. Hard to do.
The Yankees, who have not won the Series since 2000, almost could qualify as a surprise team at this point — almost. But now that they're trying to incorporate younger, less expensive players, the Yankees are like the rich kid in the neighborhood who tries to act cool by dressing down. Sorry, the rich kid is still a rich kid — and with dubious pitching, I might add.
The National League, well, the Senior Circuit gets a bit of a bad rap, in part because of a 10-game losing streak in the All-Star Game. Actually, the NL has produced three of the past seven World Series champions — the '01 Diamondbacks, the '03 Marlins and the '06 Cardinals.
Frankly, I'm sensing another NL breakthrough, and not simply because two of the best pitchers in the AL, Johan Santana and Dan Haren, were traded to NL clubs. None of the AL contenders looks as dominant as the '07 Red Sox; I can't quantify it, but the disparity between the top teams in each league might not be as great in years past.
The Braves have constructed an AL-type offense. Their bullpen will get a boost if lefty Mike Gonzalez returns from elbow-ligament transplant surgery at mid-season. Their rotation features enough options to absorb ineffectiveness and/or injury, and the organization's sudden surplus of young center fielders should come in handy at the July 31 non-waiver deadline. I'm not saying the Braves will again trade for this year's Mark Teixeira, but they should be able to get the piece or pieces they need.
Yet, the Braves aren't the only legitimate NL threat. The Cubs could be a World Series team if they add Brian Roberts. The Phillies and Brewers will be very good if their run prevention reasonably complements their run production. The Diamondbacks' young position players should improve offensively, and the Dodgers are just too talented to ignore. Also under consideration: The Mets, who must contend with age and injury concerns, and the defending champion Rockies, whose rotation is a bit of a wild card.
Injuries, obviously, can disrupt the best-laid plans of any club — starting with the 2008 Red Sox. Mostly healthy last season, the Sox already are without Curt Schilling and could start the season without Josh Beckett. Daisuke Matsuzaka's '07 load — he averaged more pitches per start than any major-league pitcher — might be another warning sign.
Granted, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz and even Bartolo Colon could assume greater roles, but there are other questions: Will Hideki Okajima be as dominant a reliever this season? Will Manny Delcarmen emerge as a legitimate late-inning weapon? Will better offensive seasons from Julio Lugo and J.D. Drew compensate for any regression from Mike Lowell and Dustin Pedroia?
With the Yankees, I just don't see enough innings in their rotation. The Indians possess enviable depth and came within one win of reaching the Series last season, but C.C. Sabathia and Fausto Carmona threw 256 1/3 and 230 innings, including the playoffs, respectively. It's also difficult to imagine their top three relievers — Joe Borowski, Rafael Betancourt and Rafael Perez — being as good again.
The Tigers might score 1,000 runs, but their rotation and especially their bullpen are concerns. The Angels' top two starting pitchers will miss at least the first month of the season. The Mariners do not look potent enough offensively, the White Sox are short on pitching, and the Blue Jays — a team I like very much as a darkhorse — need to prove they can stay healthy.
The point is, even the best AL teams are flawed, or could be. A baseball season amounts to 162 episodes of 30 different reality shows. Those who think they can figure out the scripts in advance are kidding themselves. The stats reveal trend lines and tendencies, but in the end the game is played by human beings.
I like the Braves ... I think.
Bloggers, fire away.
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