Poor judgment leaves Pedro-less Mets in lurch
Trouble for the Mets
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FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal breaks down Pedro's injury and what it means. .
Minaya dealt him for reliever Ambiorix Burgos, who likely will miss the entire season while recovering from elbow-ligament transplant surgery.
Kyle Lohse, who shut out the defending NL-champion Rockies for five innings on Tuesday night? The Mets passed as he lingered on the free-agent market, allowing the Cardinals to grab him for $4.25 million.
Rich Harden, who has allowed one run in 11 innings in two starts against the defending World Series champion Red Sox? The A's would ask a high-prospect price for either him or Joe Blanton — starting with prized outfielder Fernando Martinez — and the Mets depleted their farm system when they acquired Johan Santana.
Bannister, Lohse, Harden — none of those pitchers would have meant as much to the Mets if Pedro Martinez had stayed healthy. But now Martinez figures to miss at least two months with an injury to his left hamstring, an ominous development for a team trying to recover from a historic collapse last September.
A week ago, the Mets arguably had the best starting pitching quartet in the majors. Santana, Oliver Perez and John Maine still might be as good a trio as any. But without Martinez and Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez, who is completing his recovery from foot surgery, the unproven Mike Pelfrey is the new No. 4 starter.
Injuries to Martinez and Hernandez hardly qualify as shocking — the Mets should be better prepared to absorb them. Oh, they could sign Claudio Vargas or even David Wells as rotation filler, then add another free agent, Freddy Garcia, if he is sufficiently recovered from shoulder surgery at mid-season. But how is it that a high-revenue team is scrambling to find starting pitching in the season's first week?
Three reasons:
The Mets, third in the majors with a $138 million payroll, shouldn't have less rotation depth than the Indians, who are spending almost $60 million less. Then again, this is the National League. The Mets essentially are in the same position as they were in last season, when Martinez made only five starts, all in September. With Tom Glavine filling the spot now occupied by Santana, they nearly ran away with the NL East.
Santana is superior to Glavine. Maine appears headed for a breakout season. Perez will be highly motivated in his free-agent year. Still, Hernandez made 24 starts last season and Jorge Sosa 14. Any reasonable observer would bet the "under" on Hernandez getting to 24 again. And for now, manager Willie Randolph prefers to keep Sosa in the bullpen.
None of the other internal candidates for the fifth starter's job — Nelson Figueroa, Brian Stokes and Jason Vargas — is especially appealing. Vargas, who pitched for Minaya in Montreal, would be a reasonable stopgap, as five-inning pitchers go. But considering the uncertainty surrounding Martinez, Hernandez and Pelfrey, the Mets figure to be patching their rotation all season.
Of course, most other clubs are in the same predicament, and the Mets' advantage is that they can take on the contract of a Matt Morris or Jason Marquis in a trade. They could even aim for a younger pitcher with greater potential, offering Class AA left-hander Jon Niese and righty Robert Parnell — two prospects who emerged in spring training — instead of their one untouchable, Fernando Martinez.
Who knows? Both the Braves' and Phillies' rotations could collapse, and Pedro might return in June, full of fight. It's April 3, too early to pass judgment, too early to truly worry. But not too early to declare that the Mets should have better anticipated this moment, and prepared accordingly.
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