Nice start, but sustained success isn't in the Cards
Drawing conclusions from such a small number of games isn't wise, but it's impossible not to notice that the Cardinals are defying expectations at this early hour. The National League Central was supposed to be a race between the Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers, with only the Cincinnati Reds having the potential to crash the party. The Cards' hot start hasn't changed that, but it does raise the matter of whether the 2006 champs have been widely underestimated. So have they?
Eh, probably not.
This season figures to provide us with no truly great teams, and that's especially the case in the NL Central. The Central may not be the weakest division in baseball anymore, what with the current state of affairs in the American League West, but it's still an eminently winnable one. With that said, the Cardinals, even with their hot start, likely don't have what it takes to be serious contenders.
Thus far, the Cardinals have won with pitching. They've scored the fewest runs in the division, but their starting pitching has been ridiculously good. To put a finer point on it, Adam Wainwright and Todd Wellemeyer, who both have 2.25 ERAs on the season, have been the "worst" Cardinal starters thus far. That's obviously not going to last. In fact, the rotation figures to be a notable weak spot. Wainwright is legitimately fine starter, but the rest of the starters — Wellemeyer, Brad Thompson, Kyle Lohse, and Braden Looper — don't inspire much confidence.
In fact, here's how the career ERAs of those four pitchers compare to their 2008 ERAs:
| St. Louis starters | ||
| Pitcher | 2008 ERA | Career ERA |
| Wellemeyer | 1.80 | 4.92 |
| Thompson | 0.00 | 3.89 (4.75 as a starter) |
| Lohse | 0.00 | 4.78 |
| Looper | 1.50 | 3.86 (4.90 as a starter) |
These four guys are pitching way over their heads thus far in 2008. That's what happens when you're dealing with a sample size as small as this one; anything is possible over a span of seven games. Also, it's worth noting that the Cards thus far have played the Rockies, whose offense isn't as imposing outside of Coors Field; the Nationals, who ranked last in the NL in runs scored in 2007; and the Astros, who ranked 13th in the NL in runs scored in 2007.
The utterly miserable San Francisco Giants come next, so the exceptional pitching might continue for a while. But it will be much more difficult to keep runs off the board once the Cardinals start playing teams with better offenses, and the wheels will likely come off the St. Louis rotation.
Anything's possible, of course, but the excellent starting pitching St. Louis has enjoyed thus far is aberrant in the extreme. There's simply nothing in the dossiers of Wellemeyer, Thompson, Lohse, and Looper that would lead you to predict a breakout season from any of them.
A Cardinal surprise in 2008 isn't impossible. However, if they're to keep it up and hang in the race, then a number of things will need to happen. To wit, Albert Pujols' injured elbow will need to hold up; Rick Ankiel will need to continue putting up MVP-caliber numbers; Joel Pineiro, Chris Carpenter and Mark Mulder must all be healthy and effective in the second half; Troy Glaus must stave off his pattern of decline; Adam Kennedy and Cesar Izturis must manage to be at least a little better than awful at the plate; and Colby Rasmus must work his way into the major-league lineup, preferably as a platoon partner for Ryan Ludwick in right, sooner rather than later.
That adds up to a lot of "ifs." Those contingencies are why the Cardinals, hot start and all, are probably going to slip from contention as the season deepens. So just as the fans in Detroit shouldn't begin overturning cars and setting couches ablaze in anger, fans in St. Louis shouldn't yet entertain dreams of October baseball. So don't be fooled into placing too much emphasis on the early days of the season, no matter how much your rooting interests compel you otherwise.
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