Tigers will score, but does it matter?
This is an offense capable of scoring 900 or more runs this season, and the struggles they were enduring in the early days of the season have no lasting meaning. They'll hit. In fact, they are hitting, having touched home 37 times in their last three games.
Curtis Granderson is back from the disabled list and hitting like a house afire, and, while Gary Sheffield is sidelined with shoulder and finger injuries, Marcus Thames in his stead will provide the Tigers with similar levels of right-handed power.
Elsewhere, the decision to shift Cabrera to first base and Carlos Guillen to third will improve the Tigers' somewhat problematic infield defense (in particular, that should help the ground-balling Kenny Rogers going forward), and Dontrelle Willis, who's on the DL with a hyper-extended knee, was able to throw from the mound earlier this week. Oh, and staff ace Justin Verlander finally turned in a strong outing.
In other words, things are looking up for the Tigers. Their struggles in the early days of the season of course didn't bury them in the standings, and they still sport what should be the AL's top offense.
To put a finer point on it, over at Baseball Prospectus they've broken down each team's runs scored and runs allowed into components and adjusted the numbers for strength of schedule, and they've found that the Tigers should have a record of 12-11 right now. That would be good for second place in the Central, and it's also a sign that the Tigers have thus far played better than their record might lead you to believe.
So the numbers and the long view of the Tigers' situation, say relax.
 |
| It's hard to tell if the Tigers have truly turned it around. (Detroit Free Press, Julian H. Gonzalez / Associated Press) |
Answer No. 2: No, we were right to freak out over what remains a flawed team!
The Tigers have the third-highest payroll in baseball this season, but the team still has voids. In particular, the pitching has been awful thus far, and that's not entirely surprising. Last season, Detroit ranked ninth in the 14-team AL in runs allowed, and that's despite playing its home games in a park that squarely benefits pitchers.
Sure, they brought in Dontrelle Willis to bolster the rotation, but let's keep in mind that Willis in 2007 posted a 5.17 ERA while toiling in the non-DH league. As well, his peripheral numbers (e.g., strikeouts, walks, home runs allowed) have been worsening in recent seasons. Willis is likely no panacea.
Elsewhere in the rotation, the Tigers are still waiting for Jeremy Bonderman to live up to the press clippings. He's in his sixth major-league season, so it's time for the hard-throwing right-hander to take the next step. This year, however, Bonderman is struggling badly with his control (21 walks in 27.1 innings) and otherwise giving no signs of breaking out.
Also, Rogers may finally be showing his age, and unless Nate Robertson remembers how to keep the ball down he'll continue to stink up joints around the league.
As for the bullpen, it was a problem last season, and that's still the case in 2008. Todd Jones is another year older, there's little in way of tested and reliable left-handed relief, and Joel Zumaya is out until mid-season. That raises the question of whether the Tigers will be able to keep runs off the board at acceptable levels.
So which answer is the right one? Only time will tell, but a sensible middle ground is the safest bet.
The Tigers, especially now that Granderson is back, are going to score lots of runs. On the other hand, they're going to give up quite a few runs.
They'll be a winning team, and they'll be in the race in the Central. However, contrary to pre-season speculation, Detroit is not on the level of, say, the Red Sox and Diamondbacks. That is, they're contenders, but they're not among the power teams in baseball right now. For them to rise to that level, a few pitchers will need to step up and defy expectations.
advertisement
