Don't be fooled by April standing

by TRACY RINGOLSBY, Special to FOXSports.com

Updated: May 1, 2008, 10:00 PM EST 35 comments

It's not going to last.

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After a decade of decadence, however, any flirtation with success is enjoyable.

Of any early-season success story, none is more enjoyable than the Orioles. From the rags-to-riches story of manager Dave Tremblay — whose desire to be in pro ball was so intense he once lived in his car at the ballpark to make ends meet — to the possibility that owner Peter Angelos might finally butt out and let the latest Orioles exec, Andy MacPhail, actually put a plan in place and let it run its course to rebuild the once successful franchise.

But be serious.

This is baseball. April flowers get wilt in a hurry in the summer heat.

Yes, the Orioles and Marlins lead the AL East and NL East, respectively. No, it's not realistic to think that either one will be even close to the top come October.

It just doesn't happen that way.

They aren't the Arizona Diamondbacks, who are off to the best start in baseball, and are threatening to run away with the NL West, now that they have figured out a way to outscore the opposition. Plus they added Dan Haren to Brandon Webb, giving them the best 1-2 punch in the game.

Once in a great while there is a 2006 Detroit Tiger success story, but it's rare.

Check out the last seven years. There are always one or two teams that have no business being in first place sitting atop the standings at the end of April. By the end of September, they need a GPS to find their way to respectability.

This time a year ago, the free-spending Dodgers were snapping their suspenders, leading the NL West, unaware of the free-fall that awaited them and would send them into fourth place in the division by season's end. While Boston already was atop the AL East, the eventual AL wild-card Yankees were sitting at the bottom of the division. Eventual NL East champion Philadelphia was in fourth place, battling to get back to .500, dealing with daily rumors of the pending dismissal of manager Charlie Manuel, who's still employed. The Cubs were in fourth place in the NL Central, 5.5 games out of first, and eventual NL pennant-winner Colorado was at the bottom of the NL West, five games below .500.

Two years ago it was the Rockies who were leading the NL West, en route to finishing 10 games below .500 and in fourth place, and Texas atop the AL West, only to wind up sub-.500, as well.

The Orioles led the AL East at the end of the first month just three years ago, but by season's end had only 74 wins. Florida led the NL East at the end of April in both 2004 and 2005, and didn't even finish within 10 games of first place either time. Kansas City had its fling in 2003, and actually was tied for the AL Central lead as late as Aug. 29, but has been in such a mess since that it's on its second general manager and third manager since that date.

Cincinnati went from the NL Central lead to a 78-win season in 2002, the year the then-Montreal Expos finished 14 games out of first in the NL East, even though they were in first at the end of April.

Those 2006 Tigers, though, they can feed the hopes of the downtrodden.

Problem is those 2006 Tigers were a team that had few things go wrong, and in baseball that doesn't happen very often.

While they had to hang on at the end to claim the AL wild-card that season, they did advance to the World Series, ending a streak of 12 consecutive losing seasons that included eight years of 90-plus losses.

So what happened?

They were healthy. Closer Todd Jones was out with a hamstring strain for 19 days in April. Second baseman Placido Polanco missed 37 days late in the season with a separated left shoulder. Left-handed starter Mike Maroth suffered an early season-ending arm injury.

Other than Polanco, however, the Tigers didn't lose a member of the everyday line-up to an injury. While Maroth went down, the four other Tiger projected starters all made more than 30 starts, and the combination of Wilfredo Ledesma and Zach Miner offset the loss of Maroth. What's more, the addition of veteran Kenny Rogers brought stability to an otherwise youthful rotation.

There's no Detroit '06 in waiting in 2008.

There's a lack of depth and experience in both Baltimore and Florida, where the grind of the season will take a toll on the exuberance of youth.

Tracy Ringolsby is in his 33rd year of covering major league baseball. The 2005 winner of the J.G. Taylor Spink Award, and enshrined in 2006 into the writers wing at the Baseball Hall of Fame, Ringolsby and his wife live with their four horses outside of his native of Cheyenne, Wyo. He can be reached at ringolsbyt@rockymountainnews.com.