by STEVE CAIMANO, Dugout Central

Updated: May 6, 2008, 5:37 PM EST 23 comments

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In fact, they're getting worried a little bit late. Hafner's sharp drop-off at the plate shouldn't be a surprise to anybody because players of his type — tall, thick, defensively challenged power hitters — have a history of not aging well. This point has been demonstrated many times, but every time a new behemoth begins swatting balls all over a major league ballpark the local citizenry needs to be reminded.

So Cleveland, here's your reminder.

The most similar player, statistically speaking, to Travis Hafner at age 30, according to our friends at baseball-reference.com, is Jim Gentile. Gentile was a late bloomer who didn't establish himself in the majors until he was 26 years old (sound familiar?). He hit .292 with 21 HR in 384 AB in 1960 and the Orioles were convinced they'd uncovered a diamond in the rough. They were immediately rewarded with an MVP quality season from Gentile in 1961 when he hit .302/.423/.646 with 46 HR and 141 RBI. He might have won the award were it not for the two guys in New York who also had pretty good years in '61. Over the next three years, two with the Orioles and one with the Royals, Gentile lost a lot of batting average (.251, .248, .251) but retained some of his power (33, 24, 28 HR). In 1965, at the ripe old age of 31, Jim Gentile fell off the cliff; hitting .243 with only 17 HR. He would play only one more season.

The second most similar player to Hafner is Dick Stuart. Stuart was 28 years old and in his fourth season in the majors in 1961 when he posted his career-best line of .301/.344/.581 with 35 HR. He had a bad year in 1962, but his power rebounded over the next two as he drilled 42 and 33 HR despite posting batting averages of .261 and .279. His numbers cratered after that and he played only three more major-league seasons, including an aborted comeback at age 36.

Both of these men were over six feet tall and weighed north of 200 pounds, just like "Pronk". Neither of them was very good in the field; Dick Stuart's nickname was "Dr. Strangeglove". Both of them came to the majors in their mid-20s, established themselves quickly as hitters of prodigious power and just as quickly faded away. Their stories are echoed in the biographies of more contemporary players like Kent Hrbek, Cecil Fielder, Mo Vaughn, Kevin McReynolds and Ryan Klesko.

None of these facts mean that Travis Hafner is definitely finished as an MVP-quality ballplayer, but they certainly make it unlikely he will reach that level again.

More important, they indicate that last year's season (.266/.385/.451 with 24 HR) may represent what the Indians can reasonably expect from Hafner in the future. He has done nothing so far this year to make anyone believe that last year was an aberration, and the lack of a big bat in the middle of the Cleveland lineup is going to hurt their chances to make the playoffs significantly.

Even worse, Hafner is due to make $49 million over the next four years, which is far too high a percentage of a mid-market team's payroll to be paying to a below-average clean-up hitter.

There are four basic individual skills that go into being a major-league baseball player: hitting for power, hitting for average, speed and defense. The key to longevity is to be above average at as many of those skills as possible.

The problem with players like Travis Hafner is that all of their talent is concentrated into one or two areas. In Hafner's case, hitting for power and, to a lesser extent, hitting for average. As those skills degrade, Hafner can't fall back on speed or defense to maintain his value. Unless he rediscovers his power in a hurry, the Indians are in trouble this year and for the foreseeable future. History is not on his side.

Are you watching, Phillie fans?