Analyzing the best and worst free-agent moves

by Dayn Perry

Dayn Perry is a frequent contributor to FOXSports.com and author of the new book, "Winners: How Good Baseball Teams Become Great Ones" (Available now at Amazon.com).


Updated: May 7, 2008, 5:56 PM EST 170 comments

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Sure, it's just May, so it's premature to make too many lasting judgments with regard to player and team performance.

With that said, we're going to ignore our own advice and provide some early returns on free agents. Obviously, there's plenty of time for these players to reverse course, and that means these assessments could be completely different at a later point in the season. Those qualifiers aside, however, here are the "booms" and "busts" thus far among those players signed as free agents over the winter ...

Booms

Kosuke Fukudome, Cubs

In December, the Cubs signed Fukudome to a four-year, $48-million pact, and ever since his clutch blast on opening day, he's been something of a phenomenon in Chicago. Thus far, he's hitting .342 AVG/.437 OBP/.491 SLG and providing the Cubs with much-needed on-base skills and left-handed pop. To boot, he's also leading the majors in pitches-per-plate-appearance, so clearly his patient approach is helping the Chicago attack. Considering the Cubs' needs and Fukudome's strengths, he was the perfect addition.

Troy Percival, Rays

Percival may be 38-years-old and burdened with an unfortunate injury history, but he's still pitching at an exceptionally high level. Last season, he was dominant in 40 innings with the Cardinals, and the Rays were inspired enough to give Percival a two-year contract. So far, so very good. He's yet to give up a run in 2008, and he's surrendered just two hits in 10 innings. He's exactly what the long-suffering Tampa bullpen needed.

Milton Bradley, Rangers

Bradley can be tempestuous at times (although his problems in this regard have been exaggerated by the mainstream media), but he's also developed into a fine hitter. He raked last season in Oakland and San Francisco, and this season he's hitting .320 AVG/.412 OBP/.495 SLG. Throw in his plus defense at the outfield corners, and he becomes a nifty value at one year, $5 million.

Torii Hunter, Angels

Long term, Hunter's not going to provide value on the dollar (his contract will pay him $90,000 and expire when he's 38-years-old), but this year he's doing his job. He's hitting .314 AVG/.367 OBP/.534 SLG, and he's on pace for 26 homers and 46 doubles. That's to say nothing of his Gold Glove-caliber defense at a vital position. The Angels will likely live to regret Hunter's pricey contract, but in the here and now he's helping them win games.

Kyle Lohse, Cardinals

The Cardinals inked Lohse mostly as an afterthought. The Scott Boras client made early noises about a four-year contract, but he was promptly slapped upside the head by the market. In the end, Lohse wound up signing a one-year, $4.25-million deal, which, obviously, was a bargain from the Cardinals' standpoint. Thus far, he's giving up only 3.79 runs per game. His basement-level strikeout rate and performance history say that won't continue, but thus far, Lohse has been a real asset.

Busts

Andruw Jones, Dodgers

At the time, this looked like a sensible value signing by Ned Colletti and the Dodgers, but the results thus far have been disastrous. Presently, Jones is "hitting" just .163, and he's on pace for a paltry five home runs this season. Oh, it gets worse: Jones is batting just .087 with men on base and just .042 with runners in scoring position, and he's also perceptibly lost a step in center. All this for a guaranteed $36.2 million! Dodger fans aren't saying "Andruuuuw!"; they're saying "boooo!"

Eric Gagne, Brewers

Gagne imploded after his trade to the Red Sox last season, and after seeing his name slathered all over the Mitchell Report this winter, it's possible he wasn't in a proper mental state heading into the season. That, in tandem with his diminished physical skills, has yielded some unfortunate results: 6.14 RA (runs-per-game), five blown saves and 10 walks and four homers allowed in just 14.2 innings. At least it's only a one-year deal.

Kenny Rogers, Tigers

This season, the Gambler seems to be playing with a pocket two-seven unsuited. The 43-year-old has an RA of 6.99, and he has as many walks as strikeouts. Also troubling is that he hasn't been very successful in keeping the ball ground — formerly a skill of his. It's too early to pronounce Rogers as done, but it remains a distinct possibility.

Jose Guillen, Royals

Guillen has his merits (strong throwing arm and moderate power), but he's not the kind of player who should command a $36-million deal from a team with limited resources. He's got platoon issues, an inconsistent record of performance and — if the stories are to be believed — occasional attitude problems. Moreover, he's hitting just .171 AVG/.205 OBP/.316 SLG in the early going. It's hard to call that money well-spent.

Jorge Posada, Yankees

Posada is still a fine hitter, but there are hazards to signing an aging catcher to a long-term deal. Posada is 36-years-old, and he'll be 40 by the time his contract is up. The odds that he'll be able to continue manning the most grueling of all positions are long indeed, even for someone who wasn't converted to catcher until he was a professional. His inflamed rotator cuff may relegate him to DH duty once he comes off the disabled list, and that, of course, reduces his value. Posada's had a very good career, but the Yankees will regret committing to him for so long.

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