Clubs lacking punch should start heating up
Among projected American League contenders, the Tigers, White Sox, Indians, Yankees, Blue Jays and Mariners all are unhappy with their offensive production.
In the National League, the same is true with the Brewers, Rockies, Mets and Padres.
The temptation for some is to attribute the perceived decline in offense to a perceived decline in the use of performance-enhancing drugs.
Such a conclusion is too simplistic. It also is wrong.
For one thing, pitchers as well as hitters used PEDs. Velocity drops among certain pitchers would help offset any loss of strength and bat speed among certain hitters — and such drops indeed seem to be occurring.
The offensive numbers, meanwhile, are down only when judged against those at the end of last season. The current statistics in both leagues are comparable to what they were a year ago.
Consider the differences in the batting average/on-base/slugging lines, as well as runs per game, through May 5, according to STATS LLC:
| American League | ||||
| Year | ||||
| 2007 | ||||
| 2008 | ||||
| National League | ||||
| Year | ||||
| 2007 | ||||
| 2008 | ||||
A slight drop in slugging in the A.L., a slight increase in slugging in the N.L. — a probable wash overall. Besides, the hitting indeed should get better as the weather gets warmer.
The final OPS in the A.L. last season was 27 points higher than it was on May 5. The final OPS in the N.L. was 24 points higher.
Thus, the slow offensive starts by several teams, particularly in the A.L., are easily dismissed. The hits will start coming, the home runs will start flying. Very soon.
Floyd, McGowan: Patience pays
The emergences of the White Sox's Gavin Floyd and Blue Jays' Dustin McGowan should serve as lessons to the Yankees, Rockies and other clubs waiting for young pitchers to develop.
Pitchers drafted out of high school or signed out of Latin America at young ages often take longer to fulfill their potential.
Floyd, 25, was the fourth overall pick out of Mt. St. Joseph (Md.) H.S. in 2001. The Phillies, frustrated by his inconsistency, traded him to the White Sox for Freddy Garcia after the '06 season. After slowly regaining confidence, Floyd showed signs of a breakthrough toward the end of '07. This season, he has taken no-hitters into the eighth and ninth innings.
McGowan, 26, was the 33rd overall pick out of Long County (Ga.) H.S. in the 2000 amateur draft. He underwent elbow-ligament transplant surgery in '04, then had to adjust to a diagnosis of Type 1 diabetes that same year. Only last season did he emerge as a 12-game winner, and only now is he passing righty A.J. Burnett as the Jays' No. 2 starter.
"It's just taken a long time," Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi says. "We all live in a world where we draft 'em and they've got to be in the big leagues tomorrow. The game forces you to do that. You're expected to win. You're expected to get cheap players to the big leagues.
"Dustin's career has been a slow maturing process. He had the Tommy John surgery. He has had growing pains. He's from a small town and is not real outgoing. He's not like (Max) Scherzer or (Joba) Chamberlain, a college kid coming from a good program who can jump quickly.
"He got to the big leagues and failed a lot before he succeeded. Our minor-league guys did a great job with him. And the credit goes to him. He had the intestinal fortitude to go through it."
Reds, Marlins at crossroads
Reds G.M. Walt Jocketty says "it's a little bit premature" to discuss a trade of right fielder Ken Griffey Jr., but there is little doubt that Jocketty's actions before the July 31 non-waiver deadline could help determine the future of the franchise.
The Reds have 13 potential free agents, the most of any club. While Griffey and left fielder Adam Dunn are the biggest names, catcher Paul Bako, first baseman Scott Hatteberg, right-handed reliever David Weathers and left-handed relievers Jeremy Affeldt and Kent Mercker are among the others who could have trade value.
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| It may still be a bit premature, but Ken Griffey Jr. could provide the Reds with the most trade value before the July 31 non-waiver deadline. (Dilip Vishwanat / Getty Images) |
The Marlins are in a similar position, only with arbitration-eligible players, not free agents. An estimated 14 Marlins could reach arbitration next off-season. The team's first-time eligibles will include most of their best players: shortstop Hanley Ramirez, first baseman Mike Jacobs, second baseman Dan Uggla, left-hander Scott Olsen and left fielder Josh Willingham.
The Marlins should be in position to absorb salary increases after cutting their Opening Day payroll from $30.5 million to $21.8 million. But the sheer number of arbitration-eligible players on the team's roster might compel club officials to explore creative trades, starting this summer.
Collusion against Bonds? Doubtful
The union's investigation into possible collusion against Barry Bonds and other unsigned free agents likely will go nowhere. To prove collusion, the union must prove that the owners engaged in conspiracy. All 30 owners can justify their refusal to sign Bonds, citing fears of him becoming a clubhouse distraction and causing public-relations damage.
Then again, one agent says, "I believe that the investigation will prove what we already know and that there has been collusion in some form. At this point, I have no doubt that a strategy was centrally devised and is being uniformly followed by all 30 clubs. I think that Bonds investigation is only the very tip of the iceberg and the substance exists with the multitude of players who received identical treatment."
Agents complained, not without justification, about the harsh treatment of second-tier free agents last off-season. But the early cuts of veterans such as the Mariners' Brad Wilkerson, Tigers' Jacque Jones and Indians' Jason Michaels would appear to support the clubs' hard-line position.
Wilkerson is guaranteed $3 million, Michaels $2.15 million and Jones $5 million ($2 million from the Cubs, $3 million from the Tigers). Only Wilkerson signed as a free agent, but all three proved poor investments. Such players are reasonable gambles only at lower salaries.
In addition to Bonds and players on the secondary market, the investigation likely will include unsigned players who appeared in the Mitchell report or were believed to have been significantly involved with steroids.
White Sox turn pink
As the White Sox draw scrutiny from baseball officials for their crude display of two inflatable female dolls in their clubhouse Sunday, they're showing respect for women with a different type of gesture.
Center fielder Nick Swisher, left-hander John Danks and catcher Toby Hall will dye their facial hair pink in honor of Mother's Day and make a donation to a breast-cancer foundation in Chicago on behalf of their teammates.
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| Nick Swisher will be one of three White Sox players to dye his facial hair pink in honor of Mother's Day while making a donation to a breast-cancer foundation in Chicago. (Jonathan Daniel / Getty Images) |
A group of children from the Bear Necessities Pediatric Cancer Foundation will assist the players with the coloring. Swisher's national non-profit foundation, Swish's Wishes, helps provide medical care, education and recreational activities for children in need.
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