by Ken Rosenthal

Updated: May 15, 2008, 10:58 AM EST 123 comments

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The disappointing starts of several high-profile teams created openings for several clubs with lower expectations. The Marlins traded Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis; they're in first place. The Twins lost Johan Santana, Torii Hunter and Carlos Silva; they're also in first place. The A's traded Dan Haren and Nick Swisher; they're a half-game back.

The Rays and Diamondbacks, two other young teams bursting with energy and talent, also lead their divisions. The Astros and Cardinals, after looking all but hopeless in spring training, both are taking full advantage of baseball's comfy couch, the mediocre NL Central.

Contenders or pretenders? What follows are semi-educated guesses from someone who thought none of these clubs — except for the Diamondbacks — would be any good.

Rays

Yes, they're in the right place at the right time — the Rays' 16-6 surge coincides with the Yankees caught in transition and the Blue Jays facing their usual wave of injuries. However, the Rays are far from a fluke. They've already swept the Red Sox, Blue Jays and Angels at home, and they rebounded from getting swept at Fenway with their current 7-1 run.

For years, rival players and executives have said that the Rays resemble a postseason club when Scott Kazmir is on the mound. Now the Rays are getting Kazmir-type pitching from other starters, their bullpen is much-improved and their defense is among the league's best. Their offense, meanwhile, is not yet clicking at peak efficiency; Carlos Pena, Carl Crawford, Akinori Iwamura, Jonny Gomes, Jason Bartlett and Evan Longoria all are performing below expected levels.

Kazmir and Cliff Floyd recently came off the disabled list, and the return of reliever Al Reyes later this week will give the Rays the team they envisioned at the start of spring training, minus outfielder Rocco Baldelli. The Rays looked like at least a .500 club when the season began. If things break right, it's not unreasonable to think they could jump into the 85- to 90-win range — and finish ahead of the Yankees.

Pretender or contender: Contender. Seriously.

A's

One general manager dismisses the A's as the "luckiest team in baseball," saying that the team ranks third in the league in scoring only because it is second with a .309 batting average with runners in scoring position — a trend that will be difficult to sustain. Another GM disagrees, saying that the A's will pitch well enough to offset any offensive regression.

The A's are so deep in pitching, they made room for Rich Harden by sending Chad Gaudin to the bullpen — even though Gaudin had a 3.75 ERA in six starts. The team is first in the league in ERA, including first in bullpen ERA by a wide margin. Relievers Santiago Casilla and Joey Devine have combined to allow three runs in 34 1/3 innings, striking out 39 and walking seven. Phew.

The offense figures to remain below-average, and the roster is something of a mish-mash — "not the most aesthetically pleasing," in the words of GM Billy Beane. Still, Travis Buck and Carlos Gonzalez are available as potential outfield reinforcements at Class AAA, and the A's also have Chris Denorfia, who is currently on the disabled list. Third baseman Eric Chavez, recovering from off-season back surgery, will begin a rehabilitation assignment Thursday. Jack Hannahan has played well at third, but a healthy Chavez ... all right, let's not get ahead of ourselves.

Pretender or contender: Contender, just because of the pitching.

Marlins

Don't look now, but the Fish entered Tuesday with the same 23-15 record as the Diamondbacks and Cubs, creating a three-way tie for the best record in the NL. It's difficult to imagine the Marlins sustaining success with the league's third-worst rotation ERA. But you know what? The Phillies, Mets and even the top-ranked Braves have rotation concerns, too.

The Marlins are outperforming their run differential, indicating they've been somewhat lucky. They're 8-1 against the Nationals and 5-1 against the Brewers, who only now are starting to play well. But one GM says the Fish's offense is more threatening than the Mets', and the Marlins have continued hitting even though they've been without Mike Jacobs for the past week and Josh Willingham since April 27.

Negatives: The offense is too home-run reliant and too right-handed if Jacobs and/or Jeremy Hermida are unavailable. The defense, though improved, still averages nearly an error per game. And the rotation, while getting better work of late from rookies Andrew Miller and Burke Badenhop, might eventually exact a toll on the bullpen, which so far has been a strength.

As one scout put it, "Last year they were in survival mode — their guys were like, 'I'm in the big leagues, I've got to stay in the big leagues.' This year, they look different. They believe they're good. They take the field with more confidence. Late in games, they don't play safe. They're more aggressive."

Pretender or contender: Pretender, but still impressive.

Twins

Entering Tuesday's play, the Twins were the only team in the AL Central with a record above .500. If the Indians, Tigers and even the White Sox were playing to expectations, the Twins would be an afterthought, not a first-place club. But the Twins, unlike their division rivals, at least give a fair representation of who they are and what they should be.

Their rotation lacks a dominant starter. Their bullpen misses setup man Pat Neshek, who likely is out for the season with an elbow injury. Their offense is fairly non-threatening outside of the 3-4-5 combination of Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer. Yet, guess who just beat the Red Sox three out of four?

The numbers don't add up to a contender— the Twins are 13th in the AL in on-base percentage, 10th in slugging percentage and 12th in rotation ERA. They've gotten just one home run combined from catcher, shortstop, third base and left field — the one coming from Adam Everett, not Mauer or Mike Lamb or Delmon Young.

As always, the Twins play the game right, rarely beating themselves. But in the end, they will be no better than a .500 club.

Pretender or contender: Pretender, unless the rest of the division stays asleep.

Diamondbacks

Oh, they're for real, just not as good as they looked in April. The D-backs built their early record by going 17-5 against struggling NL West rivals — the slow-starting Dodgers, the disappointing Rockies and Padres, and the sad-sack Giants. Two weeks ago, a scout said, "Let's see how they fare against better competition." And against the Mets, Phillies and Cubs, the D-Backs went 3-7.

Does that mean they're a fraud? No, it means only that the D-backs aren't good enough to run away, which puts them in the same position as every other NL contender. Their offense was bound to slow down, and bullpen cracks started to appear last weekend when they were swept by the Cubs.

Still, Brandon Webb and Dan Haren are a combined 12-2 with a 2.71 ERA, and the return of Doug Davis from thyroid-cancer surgery will give the rotation another boost. Like every team, the Diamondbacks could use another reliever, but maybe Max Scherzer will prove to be that guy.

Pretender or contender: Contender. And maybe the 2008 NL champions.

Cardinals

The Cards could get undressed in the standings if their pitching falters. (Morry Gash / Associated Press)

A correction was inevitable: The Cardinals are better than expected, but after 34 games they were on pace to win 105 games, matching their 2004 total. This team isn't nearly that good, and concerns are mounting about the offense and closer Jason Isringhausen. If the rotation starts to crumble, look out.

At the moment, the Cardinals rank second in the NL in rotation ERA. Still, Todd Wellemeyer, Joel Pineiro and Co. are not likely to remain consistent all season — and Mark Mulder and Chris Carpenter are not certain to make meaningful contributions after coming off the disabled list.

The failure of Isringhausen to reclaim the closer's role would be difficult to overcome, but relief pitching is the strength of the Cardinals' farm system. Chris Perez, the team's first pick in the 2006 draft, is being groomed as a closer at Class AAA. Jason Motte, a converted catcher, is another hard thrower with late-inning potential. Manager Tony La Russa and pitching coach Dave Duncan invented Adam Wainwright in '06; maybe they could pull off a similar feat again.

Offensively, the question remains whether the Cardinals can adequately protect Albert Pujols. Rick Ankiel, seeing a high percentage of breaking balls, will need to continue making adjustments. Troy Glaus, playing in a new league, has hit only two home runs. The team, relying heavily on role players, appears one big bat short.

Pretender or contender: Contender, somehow.

Astros

When you're hot, you're hot. The Astros could not have been optimistic about the Brian Moehler-Derek Lowe and Chris Sampson-Chad Billingsley matchups in Los Angeles last Friday and Saturday. Yet, they won both games by a combined score of 12-1.

Criticized in spring training, disregarded in early April, the Astros are 16-6 since their 6-12 start. Few teams possess as dynamic a middle of the order as Miguel Tejada, Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee, especially with Tejada re-energized and Berkman reincarnated as Roy Hobbs.

A better on-base percentage out of leadoff man Michael Bourn would make the offense even more dangerous, given the speed of Bourn and No. 2 hitter Kaz Matsui. But the Astros, to a degree, are taking advantage of slumping opponents.

The biggest mistake the Astros could make would be to trust their pitching, which to this point is overachieving — and that's with their rotation ranking eighth in the league in ERA and their bullpen 10th. Owner Drayton McLane no doubt would approve a payroll boost if the team remained in contention, but the Astros have little left to trade.

Pretender or contender: Pretender, but fun while it lasts, and fun to watch.