Numbers paint a confusing picture for Cubs
To begin to answer this question, let's a take a look at some of the Cubs' key statistical indicators from this season ...
| * Defensive Efficiency measures what percentage of balls in play a defense converts into outs. | ||||||||
As you can see, the Cubs are winning by virtue of a powerhouse offense, a solid rotation, and a great defense. That's a good recipe for sustained success. As well, the Cubs sport a nifty run differential of +76, which suggests they've earned their place atop the division.
The heart of the matter, though, is whether they can keep it up.
Thus far, the Cubs rank a respectable 10th in all of baseball in terms of strength of schedule. Going forward, that schedule will ease up just a bit. On the other hand, the Cubs have played just 18 games on the road this year, and that will quite obviously even up over the remainder of the season. As the schedule goes, call it a wash. The real issue is what players are over-performing, under-performing, or living up to expectations.
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| Ryan Dempster's numbers don't add up. (Nam Y. Huh / Associated Press) |
Offensively, the good news for Cub fans is that nothing is terribly out of whack. Ryan Theriot likely won't be able to maintain his .410 OBP, and Geovany Soto, while a legitimately good hitter and the likely Rookie of the Year in the NL, probably won't continue hitting .317 AVG/.422 OBP/.614 SLG. Ditto for Ronny Cedeno and his batting line of .324 AVG/.410 OBP/.456 SLG. So the offense will likely tail off just a bit, but it should remain one of the league's best run-scoring attacks (even with their ongoing issues in center field).
On the pitching front, things are somewhat less promising. As mentioned above, the Cubs in part have relied upon a strong rotation this season. However, it's likely that Ryan Dempster, the Cubs' best starter this year not named Carlos Zambrano, will regress as the season wears on.
Dempster presently boasts an ERA of 2.35, which is good for third in the NL. However, Dempster's also given up seven unearned runs this season (the idea that pitchers bear no responsibility for unearned runs is a myth of the rankest sort), and he's on pace for 86 walks. More to the point, Dempster's batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of .211 suggests he's been getting very lucky thus far.
When you see a pitcher's BABIP deviate wildly from the .290-.300 range, there's probably some luck (or lack thereof) involved. When you see a BABIP as low as Dempster's, red flags abound. Coming into this season, Dempster had been inconsistent in the bullpen and hadn't been a regular starter since 2003. Oh, and his career ERA as a starter — even after accounting for his success in 2008 — stands at 4.86. In other words, there's almost no way he's going to maintain this level of performance.
On the other hand, there's Ted Lilly, whose ERA of 5.14 has been hurting Chicago. However, there are a couple of reasons to think he'll get better. One, he's been getting mauled by left-handed hitters this season, and that's not in keeping with the rest of his performance record. Two, opposing batters are hitting .308 against Lilly with runners in scoring position, and that's also unusual for him (for his career, opponents are hitting just .257 with RISP).
So those are two areas of under-performance — versus same-side hitters and with RISP — in which Lilly as likely to improve from this point onward. The Cubs' hope is that his likely improvement will offset Dempster's likely decline. Of course, this isn't taking into account Jason Marquis' ritual second-half collapse. Considering he's already working with a 4.96 ERA, he doesn't have much room to get worse and still be able to cling to a spot in the rotation. So the Cubs may have issues at the back end before season's end.
Need more pitching worries? The unhittable Carlos Marmol is on pace for 104.0 innings this season, and that obviously can't continue. If he breaks down or begins struggling because of fatigue, then the Cubs are going to have serious concerns in the middle innings.
Overall, you've got a team that's not capable of maintaining their current 100-win pace. As well, if those pitching concerns come to be realized, then the Cubs will have problems repeating as division champs in the suddenly respectable NL Central.
If they do get to the postseason, then they'll have the kind of team that's built to succeed in that environment. Teams with good defenses, high-strikeout pitching staffs, and dominating closers tend to do well in the playoffs, and all of that describes this year's Cubs model.
As you can see above, the team defense has been exceptional, and the pitching staff ranks third in the NL in whiffs. As for the closer thing, Kerry Wood has looked strong save for two isolated bad outings. If he continues to grow into the role, then the Cubs will have a real shot at ending their comically long title drought.
Of course, unless the pitching holds up, they won't get the chance.
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